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La Liga Matchday 16 Odds & Picks: Valencia Derby the Star of the Week

Sevilla will aim to continue to surprise the rest of Spain this weekend with a trip to Osasuna. Photo By @SevillaFC_ENG (Twitter)
  • Title contenders Real Madrid (-500) and Barcelona (-833) are both hefty home favorites in Matchday 16 against Espanyol (+1100) and Mallorca (+1500) respectively
  • All eyes will fall on Valencia on Saturday, as Levante (+198) host Valencia (+123) in a much-anticipated derby
  • A number of mid-table matchups could provide value for the savvy La Liga bettor this weekend

It’s Matchday 16 in Spain’s La Liga and we’re exploring some of the best value bets for the weekend’s matches.

Real Madrid vs Espanyol Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Real Madrid -2 (-104) -500 O 3, 3.5 (-114)
Espanyol +2 (-116)   +1100 U 3, 3.5 (-106)
Draw N/A +540 N/A

All odds taken Dec. 6

On paper, this is a wash.

Real Madrid (9-4-1) have lost just once this season and appear to once again be title challengers under Zidane, while Espanyol (2-3-10) have lost two-thirds of their matches outright and are mired deep in the relegation zone.

Real has won 13 of the last 14 league meetings between the two, though buyer beware of the “Over”: Just one of the past six contests has gone “Over” — a 4-2 win for Los Blancos at Espanyol last year — and the typical result has been a 1-0 win for Real.

With that said, Saturday’s visitors have conceded the most goals (28) in Spain’s top flight this season and surrendered an average of 3.25 goals over the last month in league play.

Back the hosts to fill the net.

Pick: Real Madrid -2 (-104)

Levante vs Valencia Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Levante pk, +0.5 (-110) +198 O 2.5, 3 (-125)
Valencia pk, -0.5 (-110)   +123 U 2.5, 3 (+105)
Draw N/A +250 N/A

Buckle up!

Levante (6-2-7) and Valencia (6-5-4) meet in the Valencia Derby with just three points separating the two clubs in the logjam that is La Liga’s mid-table.

Despite the added emotion both in the lead-up and game itself, recent results have been pretty consistent: Draws when the game is played at Levante, and comfortable Valencia wins when played at La Mestalla.

Recent form could come into play here, too, as Saturday’s visitors have won four of their last six in all competitions — a run that includes respectable European results against Lille (4-1) and Chelsea (2-2). Levante, on the other hand, had a mixed bag over the past month with a shock 3-1 win over Barcelona nullified by disappointing follow-up results against Bilbao (1-2) and Getafe (0-4).

Consider, though, that Valencia has not won at Levante since a cup game in 2012.

Pick: Levante +0.5 (-110)

Osasuna vs Sevilla Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Osasuna pk, +0.5 (-106) +225 O 2.5 (-102)
Sevilla pk, -0.5 (-114)   +125 U 2.5 (-118)
Draw N/A +215 N/A

Sevilla (9-3-3) has played some must-watch soccer at times this season under Julen Lopetegui.

They’re methodical and can grind out results with the best of them — their last three wins across all competitions have been by a combined 4-0 scorelines — which sets them up for success on the road, right?

Right: The Nervionenses are a cumulative 7-1-2 on the road this season, with their only defeats at Barcelona (0-4) and Eibar (2-3) over two months ago.

Osasuna (5-7-3) are no slouches, either: Jagoba Arrasate’s team has earned results at home against the likes of Barcelona, Real Sociedad and Valencia already this season, and isn’t afraid to trade offensive punches with anyone in La Liga.

Most money will be backing Sevilla here, but we like the chances of Osasuna snatching another point from a Top-5 team on home turf.

Pick: Draw (+215)

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