LAFC vs Atlanta United Odds & Prediction – MLS Picks (June 7)
- LAFC hosts Atlanta United in MLS play on Wednesday, June 7th, at 10:30 pm ET
- Currently, these sides hold third and sixth place in their respective conferences
- Get our LAFC vs Atlanta United prediction and odds below
LAFC and Atlanta United square off on Wednesday night, in what is the only midweek MLS contest. This match provides a real opportunity for both sides to climb their respective conference tables. In fact, LAFC sit just three points back from first place in the Western Conference, with two games in hand. This means they could draw level with St. Louis before this Saturday’s meeting with Houston. Continue reading for our LAFC vs Atlanta United prediction and odds!
On the other hand, Atlanta United sit back in sixth place in the Eastern Conference on 24 points. D.C. United and Orlando City are both only trailing by a mere point, which turns the pressure up just a notch in regards to turning around their recent poor form.
LAFC vs Atlanta United Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| LAFC | -155 |
| Atlanta United | +360 |
| Draw | +310 |
All in all, LAFC are the considerable favorites at BMO Stadium on Wednesday, with moneyline odds of -155; this gives them an implied win probability of 60.8%.
Conversely, Atlanta United’s moneyline odds sit at +360. This is more than fair considering the Five Stripes only have one win in their last eight contests, across all competitions. If you do favor Atlanta, you might find more realistic value at +0.5, with odds of +120. This play would cover them in case of a draw, which has been the final result in their last three outings. It is worth noting that Atlanta United are 2-0-1 in their three lifetime meetings versus LAFC.
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Odds as of June 6th from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Over/Under Odds
Additionally, this match is expected to be loaded with goals. The odds for over 2.5 total goals sit at a juicy -180, which obviously does not have much value from a betting perspective. However, the over on 3.5 total goals has much better odds of +140. This is tempting, considering their three head-to-head matches have averaged 4.3 goals.
LAFC vs Atlanta United Head-to-Head Statistics
| 1.92 | Goals per game | 2.00 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals per game | 1.51 |
| 0.83 | Goals allowed per game | 1.75 |
| 1.03 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.21 |
| 49.4% | Possession % | 57.0% |
| 41.7% | Clean Sheet % | 18.8% |
| 16.4 | Shots per game | 13.9 |
| L-L-L-W-D | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | D-D-D-W-L |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 MLS play.
But, I am not so sure the match will be as lively as some think. Steve Cherundolo’s men are coming off the back of a short week thanks to multiple CONCACAF Champions League matches and will be looking to tighten up their defense after conceding in five straight. Furthermore, Carlos Vela has been a shell of himself in recent matches. Anytime one of the most prolific attackers on either side looks so out of sync, I would stray away from a large over play.
Props – Fading Both Teams to Score
In turn, the other play I really favor on Wednesday is fading both teams to score, which offers +140 odds. The odds are so good here, because LAFC are one of the best sides in the league, especially at home, and Atlanta is the second-highest-scoring side in the MLS with 32 goals scored.
Basically, everyone is expecting a shootout. For me, there have been too many games lately for these sides to keep it up on the goal front. The Five Stripes have been scoring 0.5 goals per game more than expected too, which is a hard metric to keep at that level.
Also, LAFC has held more than 40% of their competitors to clean sheets this season. Atlanta has not been shut out all year, which is why I am not riding on just the LAFC clean sheet, which provides better value. This bet would also hit should LAFC drop a dud performance as they did against Leon this weekend. Atlanta won their last head-to-head match by a score of 1-0, which is an example of this flipping the other way and still hitting.
LAFC vs Atlanta United Projected Lineups and Injuries
LAFC Projected Lineup: McCarthy, Palacios, Palencia, Maldonado, Hollingshead, Cifuentes, Sanchez, Tillman, Bouanga, Biuk, Opoku
Major Injuries & Absences: Crepeau, Leone
Atlanta United Projected Lineup: Guzan, Gutman, Sanchez, Robinson, Lennon, Ibarra, Rossetto, Almada, Etienne, Berry, Araujo
Major Injuries &Absences: Giakoumakis, Sejdic, Alonso, Wiley (questionable) Crepeau, Leone
LAFC vs Atlanta United Prediction
Overall, I do favor LAFC on Wednesday night, but not by a huge margin. While they have not had the best of form and crashed out of the CCL, they are still a strong side that can climb to the top of the table. At home, they are a different animal most of the time, with a 5-0-1 record there this year, in MLS play alone.
"The guys are in a good space and ready to perform tomorrow… We would love to take more time to properly digest and dissect what happened but we don't have it."
🎙️ Steve Cherundolo
Training Report presented by @DrinkBODYARMOR. pic.twitter.com/c64oq0RXsX
— LAFC (@LAFC) June 6, 2023
Atlanta is concerning for me because some of their big scoring affairs recently have been against some of the league’s worst teams (i.e. Chicago Fire and Colorado Rapids, I am talking to you). Moreover, they have conceded three goals in 50% of their last six MLS contests. If they try to play that same style against LAFC, they will get blown away on Wednesday night.
LAFC vs Atlanta United Picks: No on both teams to score (+140) &
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
