Browns Starting QB Odds – Who’s Favored in Week 1: Watson, Sanders or Simpson?

• Deshaun Watson is trading at 59 cents to be the Browns Week 1 starting quarterback
• Watson hasn’t played since October of 2024 due to injury
• See below for the latest Browns starting QB odds, plus who’s favored in Week 1 between Watson and Sanders

Is there a more depressing QB situation in football than the Cleveland Browns? The Jets certainly have an argument with their quarterback room, but for my money nothing tops the Browns.

Cleveland is heading into the 2026 season with four QB’s battling for the starting job. Prediction markets expect Deshaun Watson to win the competition, but given his injury situation and his level of play since joining the Browns, how much faith in him can we really have?

Browns Starting QB Odds in Week 1

Prediction Markets

Contenders

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Kalshi

Deshaun Watson

65%

Shedeur Sanders

37%

Kyler Murray

4%

Ty Simpson

3%

Predict

As of Tuesday afternoon, Kalshi gives Watson a 59% chance of winning the starting job, which equals -143 odds in traditional sports betting terms. He’s got a 42% chance to fall short (+138), and while I’d normally jump at the opportunity to bet against him, the options behind Watson are bleak.

Shedeur Sanders is next on the board with a 36% chance to be QB1 at the start of the season (+178), while the market is barely recognizing Dillon Gabriel as a candidate, or recent 6th round Draft pick Taylen Green. Of note, both Kyler Murray and Ty Simpson are drawing more interest than Gabriel and Green, despite Murray just signing with the Vikings and Simpson fresh off being selected 13th overall by the Rams

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Watson is the Wise Choice

• Browns Week 1 Starter Pick: Deshaun Watson (59¢ at Kalshi)

I think in a perfect world, the Browns would love to trot Sanders back out there for Week 1. He’s a big personality, with an incredibly famous father, and starting him keeps Cleveland in the headlines, even if it’s not for the right reasons.

The even bigger advantage to starting Sanders is that his poor play and lack of a ceiling almost guarantees the Browns will be drafting in a position to take a prized QB in 2027. Next year’s class is loaded with talent, and Cleveland needs to come out of the Draft with their franchise guy.

Sure, there’s a chance that Sanders could improve and spoil the plan, but that’s hard to fathom. Out of qualified QB’s from 2025, Sanders ranked dead last in EPA/play, success rate, completion percentage and touchdowns. He was 2-5 over seven starts, leading the team to 20+ points only twice.

Shedeur Sanders 2025 Ranks

Experts have eviscerated him for his slow processing speed and his lack of presence in the pocket. Sanders averaged over 3 sacks per start as a rookie, and his efficiency cratered the moment he felt pressure. Cleveland did significantly bolster their offensive line this offseason, but these problems were the exact same issues he experienced in college which suggests it’s not a matter of personnel.

At the time of writing, the Browns have one of the lowest projections in the NFL win totals, and will have little chance of exceeding the number with Sanders under center.

As wise as Cleveland would be to avoid even having Watson in the building based on his reputation, reading the tea leaves suggests he’s likely going to be the Week 1 starter in 2026. Reports out of Browns mini camp is that he’s well ahead of Sanders, which should come as no surprise given his previous success.

This is a former 1st Round pick, with three Pro-Bowl nominations and multiple playoff wins on his resume, who was once considered an NFL MVP odds contender. Those accolades feel like they were from a lifetime ago, and Watson certainly hasn’t shined since joining Cleveland. He’s 9-10 over 19 starts with the Browns, with only 19 TD and 12 interceptions, to go along with a league-worst 33.1 QBR over that stretch. To make matters worse, he hasn’t played since October of 2024 due to injury.

Despite his poor track record with the Browns, there’s another reason to expect Watson to be under center in Week 1. Owner Jimmy Haslam, who once referred to Watson’s contract as one of the worst in sports, appears to have changed his tune on the controversial QB.

Haslam has been speaking positively about Watson all off-season, and has gone as far as suggesting that new head coach Todd Monken is the exact type of quarterback guru who could turn Watson’s career around. It makes sense for Haslem to push for Watson to start, as so far he’s received virtually no return on his $230 million investment.

Ultimately, Monken is not going to want to start his Cleveland tenure with the worst quarterback in football, while Haslem’s word has to carry a lot of weight. Watson is a much better talent than Sanders, and given the additions Cleveland made in the Draft, he’s much better equipped to make the Browns offense at least serviceable. From what we’ve seen from him, his best days are behind him, so Cleveland can still proceed with Watson under center and not worry about winning too much to ruin next year’s Draft pick.