Liga NOS Matchday 13 Odds & Picks: Setubal is 11-1 to Under 2.5 Game Totals

• Title contenders Benfica (-200) and Porto (-345) are both significant road favorites in Matchday 13 against Boavista (+580) and Belenenses (+1100) respectively
• Famalicao (-101) will look to stop a three-game winless skid as they face inconsistent Tondela (+245) at home
• Two of Portugal’s lowest-scoring clubs square off on Sunday, as Paços Ferreira (+100) host Vitoria Setubal (+245)

It’s Matchday 13 in Portugal’s Liga NOS and we’re exploring some best bets for the weekend’s most valuable matches.

Boavista vs Benfica Odds

All odds taken Dec. 5

Benfica (11-0-1) will be a tough train to stop in the Liga NOS this season; Bruno Lage’s squad’s sole loss was against rival Porto back on August 24. Since then, Benfica has conceded just twice en route to nine-straight league wins and sole possession of first place.

Boavista (4-6-2) have been stingy at the back, allowing the third-fewest goals (8) in the league on the way to drawing half their games and earning points in 10 of 12 to begin the season — a far cry from the 18 from 34 the club posted last season.

While the league leaders are likely to continue their torrid pace, expect Saturday’s hosts to keep a fairly tight lid on things. The Panteras have surrendered just three goals in their last four games — including matches against high-powered Braga and Porto — and are more than capable of giving Benfica a (defensive) game.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-121)

Famalicao vs Tondela Odds

Tricky, tricky, tricky.

Famalicao (7-3-2) improbably sit third place in the Liga NOS as the season ticks into its middle third; Joao Pedro Sousa’s charges have also collected one solitary point (0-1-2) from their last three games, and it appears inevitable the newly-promoted club will sink back to mid-table ‘earth’ sooner rather than later.

Tondela (4-3-5) are an anomaly. They’ll play the likes of Benfica and Sporting ultra-tight, only to drop back-to-back 1-nil decisions to bottom-half teams like Belenenses and Paços Ferreira.

Can Famalicao stop their free fall out of the top three? Will Tondela snap its two-game losing streak with a characteristically weird road win?

There’s little doubt Famalicao has the better squad (and higher-valued roster) in this one, but could Tondela get a result?

Their 3-2-1 road record this season, combined with Famalicao’s slump, inclines us to say yes.

Pick: Tondela +0.5 (-119)

Paços Ferreira vs Vitoria Setubal Odds

In terms of entertainment value, Sunday’s clash between 17th-place Paços Ferreira (2-2-8) and Vitoria Setubal (2-7-3) is not great.

But for bettor value, you’d be hard-pressed to find a game with more consistency this season: Taking the “Under” in Setubal has been virtually automatic money — 11 of the team’s 12 games have come in U2.5 — while Paços has the second-most losses (8) in the league thus far.

Check the numbers: Paços has earned a result in just 33% of its games, while Setubal has gone under in 92% of theirs to begin 2019-20.

We feel good about the “Under” at (-122), but we feel great about the visitors getting a result away against a Paços team that appears destined to head straight back to the second division.

Pick: Vit. Setubal +0.5 (-120)