Liga NOS Matchday 14 Odds & Picks: Benfica, Porto Safe Plays
- Status quo as title challengers Benfica (-476) and Porto (-526) are both heavy favorites at home against the likes of sliding Famalicao (+900) and Tondela (+1200) respectively
- One of the most consistent defensive squads in the league, Vitoria Setubal (+101) are favored at home against bottom-table Aves (+250)
- Santa Clara (+275) could offer some value at home against inconsistent Sporting (-108)
Matchday 14 in Portugal’s Liga NOS is upon us, with the usual suspects favored and some intriguing mid-table battles. Here are three of the weekend’s most intriguing matchups.
Benfica vs Famalicao Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | -2 (-108) | -476 | O 3.5 (-111) |
| Famalicao | +2 (-112) | +900 | U 3.5 (-109) |
| Draw | N/A | +560 | N/A |
All odds taken Dec. 12
Two clubs trending in very different directions meet at the Estadio da Luz on Saturday, as league leaders Benfica (12-0-1) host falling Famalicao (7-3-3) in a top-3 battle that doesn’t feel like one.
The hosts have won 10 games in a row in league play, and are fresh off a strong 3-0 win over Zenit midweek to keep their continental campaign alive. The visitors are winless in four, and reeling from back-to-back losses against decidedly average opposition in Portimonense (1-2) and Tondela (2-3).
Defending has been an issue in recent weeks for Joao Pedro Sousa’s Famalicao team and Benfica have scored three or more goals in three of their last four outings.
Despite their woes over the last month, Famalicao are still third place and comfortably in European spots; with that said, Benfica are a machine at home — and Famalicao imploded in a 3-0 defeat to Porto the last time they visited a big-three club.
Pick: Benfica -2 (-108)
Vitoria Setubal vs Aves Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vit. Setubal | -0.5 (+101) | +101 | O 2 (-120) |
| Aves | +0.5 (-121) | +250 | U 2 (+100) |
| Draw | N/A | +225 | N/A |
The intrigue is high for a number of reasons as Setubal (3-7-3) hosts Aves (2-0-11) in the Saturday late slot in Portugal.
Setubal have transitioned from being an airtight defensive unit that seemed to aim for 0-0 draws to now — under ambitious Spanish manager Julio Velasquez — willing to trade punches with anybody.
Aves, meanwhile, stunned Braga 1-0 last weekend to snap a 10-game losing streak; they remain in last place and sit five points from safety, but will see their next string of two games (at Setubal, vs. Santa Clara) as winnable.
Given Setubal’s new attacking identity and Aves’ propensity to allow goals (league-worst 29 conceded to-date), consider the over at the Estadio do Bonfim this weekend.
Pick: Over 2 (-120)
Santa Clara vs. Sporting Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | +0.5 (-112) | +275 | O 2, 2.5 (-114) |
| Sporting | -0.5 (-108) | -108 | U 2, 2.5 (-106) |
| Draw | N/A | +225 | N/A |
Matchday 14 winds down on Monday with Santa Clara (3-5-5) entertaining Sporting (7-2-4) in São Miguel.
Sporting are an inconsistent enigma, both in Europe — where they followed up a confident 4-0 win vs. PSV on November 28 with an ugly 3-0 defeat at LASK in Austria this week — and domestically. Simply put, you never know what you’re going to get from the Leōes.
Santa Clara are a tough code for bettors to decipher, too: Winless in their last three (0-1-2) at home and six league matches overall (0-3-3), Joao Henriques’ squad will need to dig in its heels to avoid dropping closer to the relegation zone.
Is a Sporting team fresh off a disappointing effort in Austria midweek — and a game they spent more than half of down a man — ripe for an upset? Possibly.
Pick: Santa Clara +0.5 (-112)
Carlos Verde is a sports media professional, with writing featured in a number of outlets, including the Epoch Times, Ottawa Life Magazine and Where is Football. He also served as a broadcast commentator for the United Soccer League's Ottawa Fury FC.
