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Man City’s Champions League Odds Drop After Leg 1 Defeat to Tottenham: Is There Value?

Man City's Sergio Aguero
Sergio Aguero missed a crucial penalty against Tottenham in their leg 1 Champions League quarterfinal tie. By Голубович Дмитрий (Wiki Commons)
  • Barca new favorite to win Champions League
  • Man City now +350 odds to win
  • Tottenham lead City 1-0 ahead of second-leg

This season’s UEFA Champions League took a slightly unexpected twist this week when Man City – favorites to win the trophy going into the quarterfinals – were beaten in their first-leg tie at Tottenham.

Spurs have only a slender lead but it was enough to see City’s average Champions League odds go out from +230 to +350; their longest odds since October 4.

2019 UEFA Champions League Winner Odds

Team Odds
Barcelona +250
Manchester City +350
Juventus +350
Liverpool +350
Tottenham +1600
Ajax +3300
Manchester United +4000
Porto +25000

*Odds taken on 04/12/2019

City Now Second-Best

The question is, has this defeat created a good value betting opportunity for City at longer odds or are they going to get knocked out.

Barcelona are understandably the new favorites (+250), following their 1-0 win at Manchester United’s Old Trafford stadium. But close behind them in the betting, Juventus and Liverpool join City in a three-way tie on +350. This reflects perfectly just how difficult this season’s competition is to call.

City Fading in The Betting

In recent seasons, there has invariably been a standout team, who have led the betting throughout the competition and have usually gone on to win the competition.

Barcelona and Real Madrid have tended to share that mantle over the last few years – but despite having never won the competition, City have been narrow favorites this season, until now.

Yet, the light blues from Manchester will still believe they have enough gas in the tank to see this job through.

They’ll be helped by the news that Tottenham’s top scorer, Harry Kane, will miss the second-leg after damaging ankle ligaments in the first-leg.

An Etihad Cauldron Awaits

The Etihad Stadium will be bouncing next Wednesday and an early goal will quickly negate Tottenham’s advantage.

So to dismiss Manchester City’s chances of winning the tie and making it to the semifinal would be foolish. Yet they do have a more difficult task on their hands than Barcelona.

The Catalans’ narrow away win against the other Manchester team, United, has set them up nicely for the second leg in the Camp Nou.

With Lionel Messi in imperious form, the bookies have called it right in terms of who looks to have the most comfortable passage through to the semi.

City Still on for Quadruple

This also makes the new 100-point difference between City and Barcelona as a fair reflection on where both teams are at. City are still on for an incredible four trophies, with the Carabao Cup already in the bag and being in pole position to win both the EPL and the FA Cup.

However, their domestic program is more demanding than Barcelona’s and so +250 for the Catalans makes sense.

City are still on for an incredible four trophies, with the Carabao Cup already in the bag and being in pole position to win both the EPL and the FA Cup.

We do however expect City to find a way past Tottenham in next week’s second-leg – especially if they can get the early goal we talked about. That would lead them to an eminently winnable semi against either Ajax or Juventus.

Barca In Pole Position

With Barcelona favorited to qualify from the other side of the draw, this could lead to a Barca/City final, and from there anything is possible. So, while Barca have Messi and therefore always the capability of winning every competition they’re in, this City side has the resilience to go with their undoubted skill and class.

We can see a narrow win over Tottenham giving them the confidence to go on and win the Champions League. So the +350, to us, offers the bettor some value.

Our pick: Manchester City +350

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