MLS Decision Day Odds & Picks: History, Playoffs and More on the Line Sunday

• It’s the last weekend of MLS regular season play this Sunday on Decision Day, October 6, 2019
• LAFC chase history while others chase down playoff positioning
• See odds and predictions for a few of the key matches on Sunday

Sunday marks the last day of regular season matches in MLS Week 31, known around the league as Decision Day, Presented By AT&T. There are records on the line for LAFC, home-field playoff positions to fight for and still two playoff spots up for grabs in the Western Conference, with four teams still alive for the final spots.

If the Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs started today…? pic.twitter.com/t8CkEOkoNA

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 2, 2019

Let’s take a look at a few best bets from the weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice.

Los Angeles FC vs Colorado Rapids Odds

*All odds taken 10/2/19

Los Angeles FC clinched their club’s first Supporter’s Shield back on September 25 in a 3-1 home win to Houston. Last weekend they drew 1-1 on the road to Minnesota.

But while the second-year club has home-field already locked up for the duration of the playoffs, there is still quite a bit of history on the line when they host the Colorado Rapids on Sunday.

History Made.

A look back at our dominant 2019 @MLS campaign.#LAFC pic.twitter.com/WuUE0LmLUt

— LAFC (@LAFC) September 26, 2019

In most other circumstances, you could possibly see head coach Bob Bradley resting some starters to prepare for the playoffs. However, with 69 points on the year, they are three points back of breaking the all-time season record of 71 set by New York Red Bulls last season.

Captain Carlos Vela is also just two goals ahead of the LA Galaxy’s Zlatan Ibrahimović in the Golden Boot race. With 31 goals, he’s tied with Atlanta’s Josef Martínez for the all-time single-season goals record which was also set last year. For a team in just their second year, securing these all-time records would be quite the feat.

With 69 points on the year, LAFC are three points back of breaking the all-time season record of 71 set by New York Red Bulls last season.

But the Rapids certainly won’t be rolling over to hand LAFC these records. Colorado need the full three points themselves, considering they are three points behind seventh-place FC Dallas. Of course several results will also need to fall their way even with a win, but that won’t matter if they can’t come away with a result of their own.

The Rapids have made an unlikely late-season push to the playoffs under new head coach Robin Fraser, winning five of six games. Last week they were 3-0 winners at home to the team they’re chasing for the playoffs, in FC Dallas.

Who grabs the last Audi #MLSCupPlayoff spots?

Get ready for a wild #DecisionDay in the West. ? pic.twitter.com/urqEDJ0E1o

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 3, 2019

It was their second-straight game scoring three goals and their sixth-straight with at least two goals scored.

With so much on the line surely goals will be seen from both sides Sunday. The odds for both scoring, with the total going over 2.5 have not been released yet but should be likely closer to game time.

Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (Odds TBA)

Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes Odds

Both of these teams have done everything in their power to not make the playoffs of late.

Entering Sunday, Portland has played out a streak of 10 of 11 matches on home field where they’ve managed to win exactly twice. Neither of those wins have come in their past five. They gave away a late two-goal lead at home to SKC in Week 29, and last week needed an 85′ minute penalty from Dairon Asprilla to salvage a second-straight 2-2 draw. It was also their third-straight draw overall.

The game was played 10-v-10 after the 38′ minute when both teams received red cards, including one to star Timbers’ striker Brian Fernandez who will now miss out on Sunday. Curiously, team captain Diego Valeri was left on the bench for the Timbers’ crucial match, which leaves one to wonder just what exactly is going on in Portland these days. And from a betting perspective, just how can you trust them with your money?

However, their opponent Sunday has looked just as unstable down the stretch. The Earthquakes have lost five-straight, including last week’s 1-0 home loss to Seattle which saw them give up the winner in the 94′ minute.

Suspended Chris Wondolowski who is sitting with the San Jose Ultras went CRAZY when the Earthquakes scored ?

(via @SJEarthquakes) pic.twitter.com/MLG0N3AZZ4

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) September 26, 2019

It also saw them lose Tommy Thompson to a red card, so they’ll be missing a player of their own Sunday. Red cards have become the norm in San Jose of late, as each of Chris Wondolowski, Cristian Espinoza and even head coach Matias Almeyda were given their marching orders just two games back against Philadelphia.

The Earthquakes haven’t won a match on the road since July 19 and while a draw is not what either team will set out for, their are scenarios that could see a single point benefit both in their quests for a playoff birth.

Pick: Draw (+270)

Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy Odds

While the LA Galaxy will be hoping to hold onto a home playoff position on Sunday, the Houston Dynamo will simply be playing out the stretch in their season and home finale.

Considering the Galaxy are a full 14 points and seven places higher in the table than Houston, you’re instinct may be to think this one will be pretty straightforward. Not so fast. The odds alone tell you this one may be closer than you think with little separating the moneyline prices for each team.

Furthermore, the Galaxy were in a similar position last week, playing at home, to a team below the Dynamo in the table. That team was the Vancouver Whitecaps, and guess what? They lost 4-3, while never holding a lead in the game.

One week left… It all comes down to #DecisionDay by @ATT! ? pic.twitter.com/G85NRwcEW0

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 1, 2019

Those kinds of disasters are usually reserved for LA’s road trips, where they’ve won just five of 16 matches this year, while scoring 20 goals compared to 30 conceded.

Houston fell in Utah to Real Salt Lake last week 2-1. It was an expected result as the Dynamo have been eliminated already and own a porous road record. They have at least found the scoresheet in five straight matches now, and are undefeated, while scoring two goals in each of their past three at BBVA Compass Stadium in Houston.

The “both teams to score and over 2.5 goals” is a result that’s cashed amazingly in nine straight overall Galaxy matches and in each of the past four with Houston.

The Dynamo should be playing free on Sunday and hopeful of giving their fans a show on Decision Day. They’ll also be sending off team, league and US legend DeMarcus Beasley who’s retiring at the end of the season. On top of that it could be the last time we see stars like Mauro Manotas or Albert Elis in orange, as they’ve been mentioned in possible transfers several times throughout the year.

LA will have more on the line and will be hoping to at least remain fourth in the West above Real Salt Lake, or possibly hoping to leapfrog one of Seattle or Minnesota in the table. As mentioned earlier in this article, Ibra still holds a slim chance of catching Vela in the Golden Boot race as well.

The past five meetings between these teams have seen both teams score, with all finishing with at least three total goals scored. In fact of those five matches, the total goals have read three, five, five, five and four. I think this one will continue to follow that trend.

The “both teams to score and over 2.5 goals” is a result that’s cashed amazingly in nine straight overall Galaxy matches and in each of the past four with Houston.

Check back closer to game day for the exact odds.

Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (Odds TBA)