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MLS Week 15 Odds & Picks – October 3-4

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

Oct 2, 2020 · 12:16 PM PDT

MLS ball on the display before the Chicago Fire and Portland Timbers an MLS soccer match, Saturday, March 31, 2018, in Bridgeview, Ill. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)
  • MLS Week 15 features 13 matches over October 3-4, 2020
  • Toronto and Philadelphia each hope to leapfrog Columbus for first place in the Eaat
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Week 15 here

It’s a heavy slate of 12 matches on Saturday and one more on Sunday in MLS Week 15 this weekend. Seattle is a massive favorite against Vancouver, but otherwise, this weekend looks to feature plenty of close matches on paper.

The East features a top-three matchup between Toronto FC and the Philadelphia Union, where each could take over first place in the conference should Columbus lose to FC Dallas. While the West features a Cali Clasico between San Jose and the LA Galaxy late Saturday night. The Galaxy were 3-2 winners in the first installment, while the teams drew 0-0 in the next meeting.

See the odds for every game this weekend as well as our top betting predictions below.

MLS Week 15 Odds

Team Moneyline Odds
Orlando City SC -120
New York Red Bulls +300
Draw +260
Team Moneyline
DC United +175
Atlanta United +160
Draw +220
Team Moneyline
Montreal Impact +250
Chicago Fire -106
Draw +275
Team Moneyline
New England Revolution -110
Nashville SC +275
Draw +260
Team Moneyline
Toronto FC -106
Philadelphia Union +240
Draw +280
Team Moneyline
Houston Dynamo +155
Sporting Kansas City +137
Draw +275
Team Moneyline
Inter Miami CF +110
New York City FC +225
Draw +250
Team Moneyline
Minnesota United -143
FC Cincinnati +375
Draw +280
Team Moneyline
FC Dallas +160
Columbus Crew +160
Draw +250
Team Moneyline
Seattle Sounders -550
Vancouver Whitecaps +1200
Draw +600
Team Moneyline
San Jose Earthquakes +180
LA Galaxy +115
Draw +270
Team Moneyline
Portland Timbers +100
Colorado Rapids +230
Draw +280
Team Moneyline
Real Salt Lake +210
Los Angeles FC +100
Draw +275

All odds taken Oct 2 at Bet365 

Pick 1: DC United vs Atlanta United

Two non-playoff teams meet in the East at 7:00 pm EST Saturday night in Week 15. DC find themselves rooted at the bottom of the table in the East with 11 points, while Atlanta are only slightly better in 11th with 14 points.

There’s really little to get excited about with either team this season. For DC, they’ve been dealing with a rash of injuries and started two young homegrowns last week in a 2-0 loss to New England. It was their fifth-straight match without a win and fourth in five matches without scoring a goal. Their defense has been serviceable—the two goals conceded to New England didn’t come until the 86′ and 90′ minutes and overall they’ve only allowed more than two goals in a match once in 14 games this season.

Their offense though has been non-existent. Post-MLS is Back Tournament, in nine matches, they’ve scored just five goals. One came on a PK in the 72′ minute, one came after they were already 4-0 down in the 63′ minute, one came in the 98′ minute and two came against Toronto in the 5′ and 88′ minutes as a result of TFC miscues.

No one on DC’s roster has more than two goals this season, with each of Federico Higuain, Frederic Brillant and Ola Kamara leading the way. Higuain hasn’t started any games and only comes on as a sub, having played just 155 minutes this season and Brillant is a defender.

The story in Atlanta isn’t any better. They have four players also tied with two goals on the year. One of those, Pity Martinez is still second on the team in points with four, despite not being on the team anymore and having only played seven matches. That leaves Ezequiel Barco, Jeff Larentowicz and Emerson Hyndman as their top scorers.

Since returning from the tournament, Atlanta is 2-2-5 (WDL) and are coming off a 2-0 loss to the Chicago Fire last weekend. If not for a PK goal against Dallas in the match prior (1-0 win), Atlanta would’ve been winless since their first game back on August 22.

Both teams are 8-6 to the UNDER 2.5 goals this season after 14 rounds. Atlanta has scored 13/allowed 19 (2.3 GPG), while DC has scored 11/allowed 20 (2.2 GPG).

I’m not sure where the goals are going to come from here. These teams rank 25th (Atlanta) and 26th (DC) in expected goals and struggle to even put attempts at goal, 22nd Atlanta and 26th DC.

I don’t usually endorse betting UNDERs in MLS, and given it’s MLS, who knows this one could end 3-2. But if there’s any game that looks like an UNDER on the card this week it’s this one. Back a draw (+220) or the UNDER.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-150)

Pick 2: New England Revolution vs Nashville SC

Another match that looks to be tightly-contested sees the East’s fifth-place New England Revolution hosting ninth-place Nashville SC at 7:30 pm EST. The teams are separated by just five points.

Almost no two teams play to lower scoring matches than these two as New England is 9-5 to UNDER 2.5 goal totals and Nashville is 10-3. Every other team in the league has seen at least six games go OVER 2.5 except for each of the New York teams who are 10-4 to UNDER 2.5 totals. Average goalscoring in New England and Nashville matches this season is dead-equal at 1.9 GPG.

By many accounts, Nashville is having a respectable expansion season. They are 4-4-5 (WDL) and in a playoff position. Goalscoring has been a huge problem though as only once in 13 matches have they scored more than once in a game. That came in a 4-2 win over Atlanta on September 12. Since, they’ve lost 2-0, won 1-0 and drew 1-1 last weekend against Houston. Nashville has been getting by with strong defense, only allowing multiple goals though in two of their past seven matches.

Their attackers and DPs have been a disappointment thus far. They hope to change that with the recent signing of Jhonder Cádiz on loan from Benfica earlier this month and who just arrived in Nashville this week. He won’t be available for selection this weekend but could be next week.

Alex Rios is the only Nashville player to score two goals this season and he’s not even a main starter. He also left injured in Nashville’s last match. Otherwise, nine players have each scored a single goal.

The Revolution may not be scoring, but it’s not for a lack of trying. They’re third in the league in attempts with 199 but only 14th in shots on target with 57. That leaves them with a miserable 28.6-percent in shots on target percentage, the second-worst in MLS. They’ve struggled to create quality scoring chances since the loss of creative midfielder Carles Gil to injury.

Nashville’s numbers don’t paint a much better picture. They have 51 shots on target on 163 attempts, good for 31.3-percent and 20th overall.

Prior to a 3-1 win over Montreal on September 23, New England had scored just six goals in seven matches since the regular season resumed. 3-1 and 2-0 wins since are encouraging, however, Montreal has been leaking oil defensively all month and their goals against DC didn’t come until the 86′ and 90′ minutes. In fact, counting every match played in 2020, New England has scored multiple goals on just four occasions—twice against DC, once against Montreal and once against Chicago. Montreal is the best of that bunch and they’re three games under .500. Those teams are a combined 11-9-22 (WDL) and -20 in goal-differential.

Nashville has a better goal differential than all those teams and should aim to keep this one tight. Once again I see a draw (+260) or low-scoring match.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-143)

Pick 3: Montreal Impact vs Chicago Fire

The Montreal Impact “hosts” the Chicago Fire at 7:30 pm EST on Saturday night with both teams fighting for playoff spots in the East. Despite being listed as the home team, the game is being played at neutral venue in New York, at Red Bull Arena in Harrison. Montreal also returned home after last week and had to quarantine. Being back with family was likely refreshing, however, training was also likely limited.

It was another heavy loss for Thierry Henry’s Impact last weekend against the Red Bulls. Despite striking first and early just four minutes in, Montreal still found themselves down 2-1 at the half and down 4-1 before the hour-mark.

Another low-light from the match saw Montreal take it’s fourth red card in five matches, causing them to rotate players more than Henry would like. Reinforcements are on the way as Montreal swung a trade with Minnesota this week to bring in forward Mason Toye who was struggling to find playing time with the Loons. He’s unlikely to feature this weekend but should create some competition for positions with Romell Quioto and Max Urruti.

Scorelines of 4-1 (L), 3-1 (L), 4-1 (L), 3-1 (L), 4-2 (W) and 2-1 (L)—that’s what the Impact’s last six results have looked like. That includes five goals conceded in games against Vancouver, three against New England and four against the New York Red Bulls, not exactly the league’s most prolific scorers. The Impact backline could be in for a long day against the suddenly hot Chicago Fire offense.

Raphael Wickey’s Chicago Fire looks to be slowly figuring things out and are one of the in-form teams in the league right now. Strong, but disappointing results against Columbus and Orlando, were followed by 4-0 and 2-0 wins over Houston and Atlanta respectively in the past few rounds of play.

Though only 2-1-2 (WDL) in their past five, the Fire have held the edge in expected goals in each of those matches. They’ve scored ten goals, yet their combined xG has been 13.5. A little better finishing of late and Chicago could be well above the playoff line instead of just barely above it.

By recent form the Fire should be favored to win this match (-106), but I also see this being a wide-open match with a few goals.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-138)

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