MLS Week 20 Odds & Picks: All Eyes On El Tráfico Rivalry Friday Night

• Week 20 of the MLS season continues this weekend with 12 more matches
• It’s an all-LA showdown in Carson, California Friday night
• Will New England continue to roll under new coach Bruce Arena?

Week 20 in the Major League Soccer season begins Friday, July 19, 2019 in Los Angeles with 12 matches over the weekend.

We take a look at a few of the top games from the MLS Week 20 slate and provide some expert betting advice.

LA Galaxy vs LAFC Odds

All odds taken July 18, 2019

Can League-Leaders Win First in Rivalry?

For years the Los Angeles Galaxy have been the class of Major League Soccer and a measuring stick for other franchises to try and emulate. Now in just their second season, crosstown rivals Los Angeles FC are the new kids in town and have stolen some (maybe most) of that thunder, as they storm through the 2019 season on their way to setting multiple records.

But while the Galaxy have taken a backseat to LAFC, they still hold the edge in the LA rivalry dubbed “El Tráfico”. When the two teams meet in a standalone Friday night match in Carson, California on July 19 at 10:00 pm EST, the Galaxy enter with an undefeated record against LAFC across three matches.

El Tráfico was born last year on March 31 when LAFC rushed out to an early 3-0 lead on the road, only to see the Galaxy answer back with four goals in the final half hour of the match to win 4-3. Carlos Vela scored LAFC’s opening two goals, while Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored the tying and game-winning goals for the Galaxy.

The following two matches didn’t offer quite the same fireworks, but still featured plenty of goals. LAFC hosted at Banc of California Stadium and again started strong with a 2-0 lead and an early goal from Vela. But the Galaxy drew even 2-2 with a couple goals in the final ten minutes of play. Zlatan found the scoresheet with one assist.

The final match ended in a 1-1 draw back in Carson with both Ibra and Vela tallying for their respective sides.

Vela has made a strong case for both the Golden Boot and league MVP with 19 goals and 12 assists.

So while the scoring may have tailed off in each encounter, the consistent has still been both teams finding the net and both Vela and Ibrahimovic having a big say in the outcome.

Both have had strong 2019 seasons, with Vela making a strong case for both the Golden Boot and league MVP with 19 goals and 12 assists. Zlatan trails in second in the goals race with 13 goals, while adding three assists. His Galaxy sit in third in the Western Conference with 34 points, 12 behind first place LAFC.

It’s Derby Week! #ElTrafico #LAGalaxy pic.twitter.com/GZJwhTGjgX

— Galaxy Fan Talk (@LAGalaxyFanTalk) July 16, 2019

And while third in the West is still impressive, their overall play has left Galaxy supporters wanting more. Often it looks like their only means to offense is to play strong defense and hope to cross the ball into Zlatan to bail them out. It works sometimes. As was the case in a 2-0 win over Toronto recently, where Zlatan scored two late goals. The Galaxy were not the best team on the field that night, being outshot, passed and possessed.

Other times it doesn’t. Like in a recent 3-0 road loss to Cali Clasico rivals San Jose, and a follow up 3-1 home loss last weekend to that same Earthquakes team, in which they were run off the pitch.

Against an LAFC side with 54 goals and a plus-36 goal-differential, the Galaxy will need to find some secondary scoring if LAFC are able to contain Zlatan. As of Thursday night, no team currently in a Western playoff position had scored fewer goals than the Galaxy’s 27. Overall, DC (27) and Montreal (26), both in the East, were the only playoff teams to score the same or fewer goals than the Galaxy heading into Thursday’s matches.

After a midweek 1-0 US Open Cup (USOC) loss to Portland last week, LAFC were forced to field a rotated lineup less than 48 hours later in MLS when they traveled to Houston. Vela sat out his first game of the year, but the result was still the same — a 3-1 LAFC win.

Bet the league-leaders to get their first win in the rivalry and for the main protagonists to have a say in the outcome once again. If you’re looking for goalscorer props, Zlatan is -110 odds and Vela -175 as anytime scorers.

Best Bets: LAFC to win (-130), LAFC to win & both teams to score (+200)

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Odds

Revolution Look to Remain Undefeated Under Arena

When New England travel to Cincinnati on Sunday, July 21, 2019 at 6:00 pm EST, they’ll be facing a Cincinnati side which defeated them 2-0 earlier this season in New England.

Much has changed since that time. New England started the year winless in four and with just one win in seven. Head coach Brad Friedel was fired after a 5-0 defeat to Montreal on May 8. The Revolution haven’t lost in the nine MLS games since. If you include Open Cup matches, it’s one loss in 11.

The Revolution haven’t lost in the nine MLS games since head coach Brad Friedel was fired.

With Bruce Arena now patrolling the sidelines, and New England’s DPs producing, they’re slowly crawling back up the standings and making a case to be in the Eastern playoff discussion. One of those DPs, is new signee Gustavo Bou, who needed just 46 minutes to score his first MLS goal on Wednesday night when the Revolution rolled the Vancouver Whitecaps 4-0. It was their third win in four, while they’ve also scored at least twice in each of the four matches.

1st game.
1st golazo.

Have yourself a debut, Gustavo Bou! ?? (via @MLS) pic.twitter.com/ANR7UtLv32

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) July 18, 2019

From one team who looks to have righted the ship, to another continuing to fall further in the opposite direction, we look to Cincinnati. Since that victory over New England back on March 24, Cincinnati have exactly three wins in MLS. They’ve also fired their coach, yet things have yet to improve.

Now two of those wins have come recently in their last three matches, but the winning feeling was quickly erased on Thursday night in a 4-1 home loss to DC United.

The expansion side have by far the fewest shots in the league and their joint-third leading scorer is ‘OG’.

And those two wins? One, was at home to Houston, who are dreadful on the road, and saw Cincy nearly blow a 3-0 lead to win 3-2. And the second, a 2-1 win over a struggling Chicago who controlled the game and missed a penalty.

Now as I write this, I’m watching Cincinnati play DC United at this very moment. And…it’s bad. Outside of Montreal, DC had scored the joint-second fewest goals (27) of any playoff team in the league prior to the match. They rely too heavily on Wayne Rooney and were missing Luciano Acosta through suspension.

FINAL | Might wanna use White Out on that scoreline @fccincinnati! ?#DCU | #CINvDC pic.twitter.com/oP7Y19NkDo

— D.C. United (@dcunited) July 19, 2019

DC had only scored multiple goals in an MLS game once in their previous five matches and had one win in nine games. But Thursday saw them score four times in a 4-1 win. Cincy’s lone goal came on an extremely questionable penalty.

The expansion side have by far the fewest shots in the league and their joint-third leading scorer is ‘OG’ (that’s their opposition gifting them an own goal). Two teams going complete opposite directions, one has a day extra rest, and is paying plus-money. Take the Revs. I just bet it now.

Best Bet: New England to win (+135)

MLS Week 20 Parlay Bet

Let’s take a look at a small two-team parlay for Saturday night.

Toronto vs Houston & RSL vs Minnesota

TFC will host Houston, while Real Salt Lake hosts Minnesota on Saturday, July 20, 2019.

Toronto FC vs Houston Dynamo Odds

Both Toronto and Houston are coming off short weeks having just played on Wednesday. Toronto were outplayed, but came away with a 3-1 win over New York Red Bulls. They did see Alejandro Pozuelo leave the match early with a calf injury, which will be something to watch for Saturday’s lineup. That, plus the short odds on Toronto may push me away from the moneyline play. To note, TFC was paying -125 initially, but that’s since shortened to -155.

TFC was paying -125 initially, but that’s since shortened to -155.

Considering Houston can score, and last week’s 2-0 win in Montreal notwithstanding, TFC aren’t usually known for keeping clean sheets.

Yet last weekend, re-energized with the return of several starters to the lineup, plus the addition Omar Gonzalez on the backline, that’s exactly what they did. TFC’s stars stepped up offensively with goals from Alejandro Pozuelo and Jozy Altidore.

Houston did the exact opposite, in well, not stepping up last weekend. Despite getting a rotated LAFC team playing less than 48 hours from their USOC match, they still fell, at home, 3-1.

Quick turnaround. Grind don't stop ⏱️ @MariaPapadakiss gets you set for #TORvHOU ➡️ Painting the Picture presented by @BenjaminMooreCA #TFCLive pic.twitter.com/Ilid7i6cOT

— Toronto FC (@TorontoFC) July 18, 2019

Houston traveled to Atlanta on Wednesday where they, wait for it, you guessed it, lost and lost badly, 5-0. However, with Mauro Manotos and Romell Quioto being rested, and Albert Elis being sent off just six minutes in, realistically they never stood a chance.

It was another road game and another loss for Houston, which has been status quo this season. The Dynamo have exactly one win on the road all season and now eight losses. They’ve allowed at least two goals on their travels in each of their past five road games. They’ve allowed at least three goals in their last three matches overall.

Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota Odds

These sides have met four times in MLS play historically, twice each of the past two years. Three of those four have seen both teams score. Last year the teams drew 1-1 in Salt Lake, while Minnesota won 3-2 at home.

The Loons are a juggernaut right now. Not something I expected to be saying after their dismal 11-20-3 season last year. They had 36 points in 2018, but have 33 already through 20 games played and sit fourth in the West.

Loonies never say die… pic.twitter.com/jOJFJSOXJe

— Minnesota United FC (@MNUFC) July 16, 2019

Minnesota have won four straight in MLS and seven straight overall. In those seven, they’ve outscored opponents 27-8. Wow. Making a case for them to not find the back of the net Saturday would be tough to do. On the flip side, on the road, they’ve kept just one clean sheet in ten road MLS matches.

Real Salt Lake have been hot of late as well and especially at Rio Tinto Stadium. They’ve won three of their past four and all three wins came at home. They’ve shut out those three opponents in each win, outscoring SKC, Columbus and Philadelphia 7-0. Last week they defeated the East-leading Union 4-0.

FT: Jefferson Savarino (2 goals, 1 assist) powers @realsaltlake to victory! #RSLvPHI pic.twitter.com/VIm2Y1GKsv

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) July 14, 2019

Goals should be in the cards and I expect an exciting match in Salt Lake Saturday night.

Parlay Bet: Toronto FC to score over 1.5 goals and RSL/Minnesota both teams to score (+137)