Upcoming Match-ups

Napoli vs Barcelona UCL Round of 16 Leg 1 Odds & Pick

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 3:20 PM PDT

Red-hot Lionel Messi and Barcelona enter as favorites in their UEFA Champions League Round-of-16 tie against Napoli. We look at the odds and predict if the home Italian side, who have a tendency to concede too many goals, has betting value for an upset in Leg 1.
  • Second week of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16
  • Napoli entertain Barcelona in the Stadio San Paolo in the first leg of their tie
  • Get the preview, odds and best bets for this game below

It’s been a difficult couple of weeks off the pitch for Barcelona. They’ll be glad attention has returned to matters on it, and games don’t come much bigger than their  UEFA Champions League Round-of-16 tie in Napoli – Tuesday, Feb. 25 at 3pm ET.

While Barca will start the game as favorites, they’re still in plus money, which in theory offers hope to punters looking to back the home win. We’ll take a look and see if this is doable for the Italians.

Napoli vs Barcelona UCL Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Napoli +0.5   (+144) +212 U 2.75   (-109)
Barcelona -0.5   (+108) +112 O 2.75   (-120)
Draw N/A +249 N/A

All odds taken Feb. 22.

Barca’s Off-Field Nightmares

Barca’s off-field drama centered around their signing of Leganés striker Martin Braithwaite despite the transfer window having closed on January 31. The Catalans exploited a rule, unique to La Liga, where a team can sign players if they have an injury crisis. The move left relegation-threatened Leganés in all sorts of trouble – minus their top scorer but without the ability to sign a replacement – and has further soured the relationship between the Catalans and the rest of the league.

All of which makes their need to progress in the Champions League that much greater, but it’ll be tough for them in Napoli. On paper, as one of the favorites to win the whole competition, the Spaniards should negotiate this tie with some comfort but this is a Barca team that has shown frailties on the road this season. While they may be confident of getting the job done over the two legs, they will need first of all to negotiate the ferocious atmosphere of the Stadio San Paolo – never an easy task.

YouTube video

Messi Hits Four as Barca Hit Back

To give it some context, a poor away record for Barca is not the same as a poor record for your average team, but for them to have reached this stage of the season and have lost four times on the road is not the norm in Catalonia.  It’s worth noting too that not all of these defeats have come against their top-four La Liga rivals, with Valencia, Levante, Granada, and Athletic Bilbao the teams to beat them. They also lost away to Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey and to Atletico Madrid on neutral ground (Saudi Arabia) in the Spanish Supercopa.

Napoli vs Barcelona Head-to-Head Stats

Napoli
VS
Barcelona
3/6 Wins/Games played 4/6
0 Losses 0
11/1.83 Goals scored/Per game 9/1.5
88/20 Goal attempts/On target 82/32
3041 Passes attempted 3976
82% Passing accuracy 88%
4 Goals conceded 4
3 Clean sheets 2

But, on the positive side, the controversy surrounding the sacking of former manager Ernesto Valverde in January, while they were top of La Liga, and replacing him with former Real Betis head coach Quique Setien has subsided. The results have been good, the quality of soccer has been good, they are still top of La Liga and, above all, Setien has got Lionel Messi firing again. If Saturday’s 5-0 demolition of Eibar is anything to go by, the world’s best player is hitting top form after scoring four times.

Gattuso’s Time to Shine

For Napoli, it’s been a tough season. Their planned assault on the Serie A title didn’t materialize and they ended up parting company with experienced coach Carlo Ancelotti (who’s now at Everton), despite qualifying for the Champions League knockout phase. His replacement, Gennaro Gattuso, has managed to improve their Serie A form – they are now in sixth place – and they look on course to qualify for next season’s Europa League, but it’s in the Champions League where Gattuso’s credentials will be really tested.

The Spaniards should negotiate this tie with some comfort but this is a Barca team that has shown frailties on the road this season

Gattuso will need to tap into the form they showed in qualifying for the UCL knockout phase when, from a tricky looking group, they emerged unbeaten and, in doing so, inflicted on European and World Club champions Liverpool, their only meaningful defeat of the season. Napoli will need to rediscover that same fight and resilience against Barca.

YouTube video

Napoli Improving but Still Conceding Too Many

Domestically, Napoli are in a good place with four wins in their last six and are third in the current Serie A form table, but they do still have problems defensively and continue, even when winning, to concede too many goals. This, with Messi and company waiting to pounce, will be their biggest worry. On the flip side, they have shown an ability to go toe-to-toe with the best, and their recent good run includes a 2-1 win over Juventus at the San Paolo.

Given Napoli’s improvement under Gattuso but propensity to still concede, it becomes a tough one to call. Barca’s recent good run comes into play too but even with Messi on the team, they don’t have that air of invincibility on the road than they do at the Camp Nou.  So, while Barca in plus money is never to be sniffed at, the value here is with a Napoli win. The home fans will create a hostile atmosphere and, while I expect Barca to win the tie over two legs, I can see a one-goal win here for the Italians.

Pick: Napoli to win (+212)

Author Image