Nationality of Champions League Winner Odds: Italy Offering Value?
By Ryan Metivier in Soccer News
Updated: January 4, 2023 at 6:19 am ESTPublished:
- Which nation has the best chance of winning Champions League?
- Is it worth betting a winner’s nationality at shorter odds compared to betting a single club outright?
- Does Italy offer the best value for this bet?
With the Champions League Round of 16 still a little under two months away, there’s plenty of time to dig into the different futures bet options available.
Betting the nationality of the winning club is one such option for bettors of Champions League 2019. Also be sure to track every club’s average odds to win the tournament with our Champions League Odds Tracker.
Nationality of Champions League Winner Odds
| Which Nation Will Produce the Champions League Winner? | Odds |
|---|---|
| England | +150 |
| Spain | +225 |
| Italy | +600 |
| France | +650 |
| Germany | +900 |
| Netherlands | +8000 |
| Portugal | +10000 |
Let’s say you’re sold on an English side winning. You can take all of Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham, or Manchester United for the price of +150. This would be instead of betting one of these sides at +275, +900, +2500 or +5000 respectively.
I’m not sure the value is there with England though. The price of +150 is significantly shorter than any of the English sides on their own. Even City can be had for +275.
Bayern Munich head coach Niko Kovač on drawing Liverpool in the Champions League: “It’s the toughest draw we could’ve been given.” https://t.co/CLBRwgv7Vt
— Get German Football News (@GGFN_) December 17, 2018
Realistically, only City or Liverpool are likely contenders. Even if you bet those two on their own and the shorter priced City came through, you’d still make a slightly larger return. Any of the other three English sides you could mix and match and get a much better payout as well.
Juventus and Roma a 2-for-1 Deal?
No matter which nation you pick that has multiple clubs remaining, you’ll be offered shorter odds than choosing one of those teams individually. That makes sense, but the one exception to that is Italy.
The remaining Serie A teams consist of Juventus and Roma. Juventus are third favorites to win the tournament at +600. Roma are longshots at +5000.
ℹ️ Juventus number 7 Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 22 goals against round of 16 opponents Atlético in all competitions 🔥🔥🔥#UCLDraw pic.twitter.com/8q4LGSt53X
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) December 17, 2018
Juve are definitely title contenders in their own right having yet to lose a match in Serie A with a 16-1-0 record. The Italian giants have scored 34 goals while only allowing eight. In Champions League play they did drop two matches but still finished on top of Group H.
Juventus already boast a rock solid defense and now have five-time Champions League winner Cristiano Ronaldo up front. Juventus are well-experienced in this tournament having made it to the quarter-finals last season and the finals in 2017.
Teams Remaining By Nation
| Nationality | Teams Remaining |
|---|---|
| England | Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Man U |
| Spain | Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid |
| Italy | Juventus, Roma |
| France | PSG, Lyon |
| Germany | Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Schalke |
| Netherlands | Ajax |
| Portugal | Porto |
You’d be hard-pressed to find someone picking Roma to win the title. The odds reflect that as picking Italy offers the same price as picking Juve alone.
Roma are tenth in Serie A with a 6-6-5 record and are not even in Europa League placings. They could be turning things around though as they’ve only lost two of their past eight matches in Italy.
Roma could be turning things around as they’ve only lost two of their past eight matches in Italy.
While Roma are not the same team as a season ago, they are still less than a year removed from reaching the semi-finals of last season’s tournament.
The 👑 reacts to the #UCLdraw… ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/vc9C6Sb4hy
— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) December 17, 2018
In Champions League, Roma finished second in Group G behind Real Madrid. Typically finishing second would mean they’d be playing one of the continents’ top clubs in the Round of 16 who finished first in another group.
However, Roma drew Portuguese side Porto who finished on top of a mediocre Group D. Porto have some of the longest odds of +8000 to win the tournament, but are undefeated in Champions League play thus far.
“I know that the past meetings between these two clubs do not make for great reading for us, but over the course of these two games we will try to turn that around."
#ASRoma #UCLdraw
https://t.co/CsHVZghmkn— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) December 18, 2018
Should You Bet the Nationality of the Winner?
While we’re talking Porto, if by chance you feel like taking a flyer on the current leaders of the Portugal Primeira Liga, then this futures bet is for you. Taking the nationality bet and choosing Portugal currently gets you +10000 compared to the +8000 of simply betting Porto outright.
Longshots notwithstanding, betting Italy at +600 looks to offer the most bang for your buck for this bet.
Sports Editor
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
