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Odds Favor AC Milan to Remain Top 4 in Serie A

Ryan Metivier

By Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated: January 4, 2023 at 6:25 am EST

Published:


AC Milan logo
AC Milan are currently holding onto fourth place in Serie A by one point over fifth place Roma. By Maarten Van Damme (Flickr).
  • The top three sides in Serie A look to be in good position to maintain their positions
  • AC Milan is favored to hold onto their current spot in the Serie A Top 4
  • Which teams are still in the running to finish Top 4?

Now well into the Italian Serie A season, table-toppers Juventus have separated themselves from the pack. A spot in the Serie A Top 4 is still up for grabs and AC Milan are favored to claim the final Champions League spot.

Odds to Finish Top 4 in Serie A

Team Odds
Napoli -25000
Inter Milan -800
AC Milan +165
Roma +175
Lazio +300
Atalanta +450
Sampdoria +2500
Fiorentina +3300
Torino +4000
Sassuolo +15000
Parma +40000

Juve Running Away with Serie A Title

Betting on this year’s Serie A champion is basically already over. With an 11-point lead over second place Napoli, Juventus should be on cruise control to the finish line. The betting odds for Juve to remain at the summit of Serie A are -5000.

In fact even a bet on “To Win without Juventus” has basically seen the value long sucked out. With an eight-point lead over third place Inter Milan, second place Napoli have odds of -800 on that bet.

Unless you see things changing dramatically near the top of the table, the only futures betting value that remains is betting on who claims the final Champions League spot in Italy.

With city rivals Inter five points above Milan, the battle for fourth is where things look wide-open.

Krzysztof Piątek Makes Instant Impact in Milan

From fourth place Milan down to tenth place side Torino, only five points separate six teams.

Milan have only dropped four games this season but all have come against teams in the top nine. Three losses came to Juventus, Napoli and Inter, with one to ninth-place Fiorentina.

From fourth place Milan down to 10th place side Torino, only five points separate six teams.

As the European transfer market neared its close, Milan was one of the teams making big news. Striker Gonzalo Higuaín never really caught on in Milan and was sold to Premier League side Chelsea. Higuaín had only six goals on the year in Serie A and his sale made way for new frontman Krzysztof Piątek.

The 23-year-old Polish striker already had 13 goals this season with Genoa prior to his recent transfer of €35 million to Milan. He ranks fourth in Serie A scoring.

Piątek made a short debut off the bench against Napoli in Serie A. In his full debut for the Rossoneri just three days later in Coppa Italia, he wasted little time in scoring two early goals in a rematch with Napoli.

What you have to like about Milan is that with Piątek leading the line, Milan should be more well-balanced in the second half of the season.

With Piątek leading the line, Milan should be more well-balanced in the second half of the season.

Their 20 goals allowed are fourth-best in the league. However their 28 goals scored is only tied for ninth. The addition of Piątek could be the difference to keep them above Roma and others in the Top 4.

Bet On Milan for a Serie A Top 4 Finish

The Rossoneri have only lost once in their past nine matches. They’ve only won three times but have kept five clean sheets and have now improved offensively. They’re also in to the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia against Lazio later this month.

If you’re looking for a live longshot you could do much worse than looking at sixth place Sampdoria.

The Blucerchiati are only two points back of Milan on 33 points. While they are not always the tightest in the back, they can certainly score with the best of Italy’s top sides.

Sampdoria’s 39 goals are tied for third-most in the league. Much of that can be attributed to surprise Serie A goal-leader Fabio Quagliarella. The 36-year-old is on pace to have his best season with 16 goals for Samp.

Over the past 10 games Samp are the third-hottest team in the league. Over the past five they have the second-best form behind only Juventus. At +2500 they have to be worth a shot at a Serie A Top 4 finish.

Serie A Top 4 Best Bet: AC Milan +165

Best Longshot Bet: Sampdoria +2500

Ryan Metivier
Ryan Metivier

Sports Editor

Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com

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