Portugal’s Euro 2020 Odds Take a Hit After Pair of Home Draws in Qualifiers

• Portugal’s odds to win Euro 2020 have dropped after two draws in qualification
• Does Portugal offer good value now at longer odds?
• Or does better value exist elsewhere?

Defending champions Portugal have seen their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign get off to a slow start in Group B. Portugal were unable to win either of their first two matches and were forced to settle for two draws. Their Euro 2020 odds have now dropped to an average of +1300.

Follow every country’s odds of winning Euro 2020 throughout qualification and beyond with our UEFA Euro 2020 Odds Tracker.

Euro 2020 Odds

*Odds taken 03/27/19

Prior to their first qualifying match, Portugal had average odds of +1100 on March 20th. Odds on the Portuguese have actually slipped as low as +2000. That is the most they’ve been paying at any point since July 16th, 2018 when their average odds were +1600.

In a qualifying group consisting of no team ranked higher than Ukraine (30th) or Serbia (31st), the defending champion Portuguese (6th) were expected to have an easy go of it.

However, after home draws against each of those opponents, Portugal will need to regroup as they head on the road for their next two matches and three of their next four.

🇺🇦 Ukraine sit top of Group B after 2 games

Will they qualify for #EURO2020❓ pic.twitter.com/M6QAEl3HiL

— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) March 25, 2019

In their first match versus Ukraine, Portugal dominated the possession and chances but a resolute Ukraine defense was able to hold the Seleção to a 0-0 draw.

Their second match saw Portugal fall behind early through a Serbia penalty just seven minutes into the game. While Portugal once again controlled the match, their lone goal came minutes before halftime from Danilo Pereira.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emwrPR9THIU

Portugal were forced to play much of the game without Cristiano Ronaldo. The captain was forced off before the half hour mark with a thigh injury. The injury is not expected to be serious but will require him to miss at least the next three matches with Juventus.

With only two points in two matches, Portugal now sit in a precarious third place in Group B. While that already doesn’t look great now, their placing in the group could actually get much worse.

🇵🇹 Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal captain: "I'll be back in one or two weeks."#EURO2020 pic.twitter.com/nUUlq6PHZb

— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) March 26, 2019

Since Group B has only five teams, Serbia and Lithuania only played one match during this first round of fixtures. In the next round of matches on June 7/10, one team will not play at all to balance things out. That team is Portugal.

The Seleção could very likely drop to fourth should Serbia gain points in June. In fact, if Lithuania pull off a home win over Luxembourg (or a less likely win in Serbia), Portugal could find themselves last in the group before their next match comes on September 7th.

Is Portugal’s Luck Running Out?

Only the most die-hard of Portuguese fans would say the team were worthy winners of Euro 2016. They finished third in their group behind Hungary and Iceland and drew all three matches. Narrow victories culminating with a 1-0 win over France in the final crowned them champions.

🏆 Euro 2016: Portugal become European champions. Eder scores the winning goal in the 109th minute.

🏆 Euro 2018 U-19 Championship: Portugal win the tournament. Pedro Correia scores the winner in the 109th minute.

Deja vu. pic.twitter.com/NWGGsMvIAJ

— Soccer AM (@SoccerAM) July 30, 2018

Last summer’s World Cup was more of the same. Portugal drew Spain and Iran and only managed a 1-0 win over Morocco. A knockout round exit to Uruguay followed.

Across their past 45 overall competitions Portugal have only lost five times.

However while Portugal rarely wow you, they also rarely lose. Across their past 45 overall competitions they’ve only lost five times. Two of those losses came in friendlies.

Avoid Portugal in the Futures Market

I struggle to find a compelling reason to back the Portuguese right now.

But I also believe more value could be out there on Portugal for those who wait after the next round of Group B fixtures.

Hazard leads Belgium to victory!

Belgium began their #EURO2020 qualifying campaign in Group I with a 3-1 victory over Russia in Brussels. Eden Hazard netted a brace while Youri Tielemans was also on target for the Red Devils pic.twitter.com/NSOfVxesCK

— FootyTool Naija (@footytoolnaija) March 21, 2019

Instead I continue to believe that this generation of Belgian stars with odds of +700 will one day win a major tournament. They lost in the semis to eventual winner France in the World Cup and currently sit first in the FIFA World Rankings.

Also, from a pure value play, Poland could be worth a bet. The Eagles have odds as high as +10000. After two wins in qualifying, their average odds have actually dropped from +7200 to +8900.