Premier League Picks Week 21: Arsenal vs Man United, Leeds vs Brentford & More

• Week 21 of the 2022-23 English Premier League season takes place between January 21st and January 23rd
• Arsenal has a comfortable lead atop the table, but the top four race is heating up
• Find all the Week 21 EPL odds and three Premier League picks below

This weekend’s Premier League schedule kicks off with Liverpool hosting Chelsea. Two struggling giants of English football reside in mid-table ahead of this clash, though victory for either side in this weekend’s Premier League picks could move them into the top six.

Arsenal has a five-point lead and a game in hand at the top even after Manchester City’s come-from-behind win over Tottenham on Thursday night. Newcastle remains fourth with Fulham, Brentford and Brighton all placing in the top eight.

At the foot of the table, Southampton are behind West Ham and Everton on goal difference. Only two points separate 14th and 20th.

Premier League Odds Matchday 21

Odds as of January 20th at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool promo code to bet on this week’s Premier League action.

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Manchester City, as is so often the case, are the heaviest favorites in Premier League odds this weekend at a price of -500 to beat relegation-threatened Wolves. Goals are expected between Leicester and Brighton with -134 odds on over 2.5. Oddsmakers tab Leeds vs Brentford, Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest and Southampton vs Aston Villa as the tightest fixtures of the weekend with all six teams involved at +190 or shorter to win.

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Picks

Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest are trending in opposite directions. Bournemouth have lost their last six in all competitions and 10 of their last 12. Nottingham Forest have lost only three of 13 in all competitions, and have claimed victories in three of their previous four matches.

After an abysmal start, Forest have a five-point cushion to 18th.

Steve Cooper if fully focused on the Premier League after reaching the Carabao Cup semi final 👊 pic.twitter.com/OgortD7uUR

— Mirror Football (@MirrorFootball) January 13, 2023

While Forest are a lower-mid-table team according to their expected goals marks, Bournemouth are comfortably the worst team in the league by those metrics. Both teams have been hit hard by injuries, with numerous absentees for Gary O’Neil and Steve Cooper to deal with. Forest have a boost for this match, however, with Taiwo Awoniyi expected to return.

Bournemouth have only lost four times in nine home league matches, and Forest have won only once on the road this term. Despite that, a combination of superior talent and much higher confidence makes the visitors our Premier League pick to win the match. With Bournemouth failing to score in league action since the World Cup, bettors could also consider Forest to win to nil at +335.

Premier League Picks: Nottingham Forest to win (+180)

Leeds United vs Brentford Picks

With two wins in 15 league matches and only a two-point advantage over 18th, Leeds manager Jesse Marsch is under severe pressure ahead of the visit of Brentford. Only Newcastle, Manchester City and Arsenal have lost fewer matches than the Bees this season, who have won their last three in the league and suffered defeat just once since October 8th.

Leaking goals has been a real problem for Leeds. Tottenham are the only side to concede more since October 21st, and the Lilywhites have played a game more over that period. They have failed to score only once since then, however, which came during a goalless draw away to high-flying Newcastle.

Both teams have scored in 67% of Leeds’ league fixtures and 58% of Brentford’s matches. BTTS has landed in the last four meetings. These sides also rank above league average in total corners per match, so with BTTS at a short price, let’s put together a parlay to get some more favorable odds.

Premier League Picks: Both teams to score and over 7.5 total corners (-106)

Arsenal vs Manchester United Picks

First hosts third in the biggest Premier League match of Week 21. Arsenal have won seven and drawn once at home this season, and have collected 20 of the last 24 available points. It is still a slight surprise to see the Gunners as odds-on favorites here, however, with Manchester United winning nine in a row in all competitions before their draw with Crystal Palace.

Casemiro is suspended for the visitors, which is a huge blow given the Brazilian’s impact since becoming a starter. Anthony Martial and Diogo Dalot are doubts, too.

.@MarcusRashford is in some serious goalscoring form 🔥 pic.twitter.com/2Qgk8GyIOc

— Premier League (@premierleague) January 18, 2023

Erik ten Hag’s team have only won two of their last five on the road in the Premier League, and have a -4 goal difference away from Old Trafford. Arsenal’s underlying metrics are very strong, with comfortably the second-best expected goal difference in the league.

Since their drubbing against Manchester City in October though, Manchester United are neck-and-neck with Arsenal for the best expected goal difference, according to Understat. Marcus Rashford is in sensational form, and will pose problems for a Gunners defense that has kept only two clean sheets at home in the Premier League.

An implied probability of 49.5% on Manchester United to win or draw at the Emirates is on the low side. At +102, there’s some value there.

Premier League Picks: Manchester United to win or draw (+102)