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PSG vs Bayern Munich Odds & Prediction – Champions League Quarterfinals Leg 2

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Apr 12, 2021 · 10:24 AM PDT

PSG vs Bayern Munich
PSG's Kylian Mbappe, second, right, PSG's Pablo Sarabia, second left, and PSG's Moise Kean, left, walk after Kean scored his team's third goal during the French League One soccer match Strasbourg against Paris Saint-Germain at the stade de la Meinau stadium in Strasbourg, eastern France, Saturday, April 10, 2021. (AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias)
  • PSG host Bayern Munich in the second leg of their Champions League quarterfinal tie on Tuesday, April 13th at 3:00 pm EST
  • Despite facing 31 shots in the first leg in Germany, PSG won the match by a score of 3-2, giving them a massive advantage in away goals
  • Currently, the favorites to win the second leg are Bayern Munich with moneyline odds of +110

The first leg between PSG and Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarterfinals played out exactly how everyone imagined. Bayern Munich were arguably the better team despite losing, but PSG utilized their deadly counterattack and converted their chances. Furthermore, the game was more or less a story of forwards for the two sides. Kylian Mbappe continued his Champions League dominance for PSG, netting twice. Meanwhile, Robert Lewandowski sat out for Bayern Munich due to injury and was ultimately the difference in the game.


Bayern Munich’s expected goals (xG) value in the first leg was 3.79, and undoubtedly the scoreline would have been different if Lewandowski was on the pitch. Nonetheless, we are onto the second leg in Paris, where PSG will look to defend their one goal lead. However, to advance Bayern will need need to win by two goals or beat PSG’s away goal mark of three. It will be a challenge for the Germans, but if any team can do it, it is this side. Expect Hans-Dieter Flick’s side to challenge Keylor Navas and take this game to the bitter end.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
PSG vs Bayern Munich PSG +0.5 (-129) | BAY -0.5 (+108) PSG +215 | BAY +110 | DRAW +295 Ov 3.5 (+100) | Un 3.5 (-124)

Odds as of Apr 11

Bayern Must Find a Way to Stop Kylian Mbappe

The most significant takeaway from the first leg was that right now, Kylian Mbappe might be the hardest player to defend in the world. Between his pace and finishing, it allows him to hurt a team in so many ways and he did just that last week for PSG. Mbappe’s first goal was more Manuel Neuer’s mistake if anything, and Bayern Munich surely cannot afford another mistake like that in the second leg.

Despite his first goal being a blunder, Mbappe’s second goal for PSG was pure class. Alaba and Boateng could have done a better job getting closer to him to deflect the shot, but with the placement, hardly any keeper is saving that. With that being said, the second leg will be about how Bayern adjusts to Mbappe and PSG. Bayern will more than likely want to dominate possession and the chances in the game, but if they are not careful, the young French forward could end the game with a few touches.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Champions League Statistics

Bayern Munich
2.33 Goals per game 2.89
12.2 Shots per game 16.8
50.0% Possession % 57.8%
84.6% Passing % 86.8%

Bayern Munich Need to Convert Their Chances

It goes without saying that Bayern Munich were the better team in the first leg. On paper, their squad is better and technically they can suffocate teams. But, without execution, their game plan goes out the window. Lewandowski has been their main man for the better part of a decade and now they have to face their biggest challenge without him. Additionally, they have to do so away from home at the Parc des Princes.

In the first leg, Bayern’s wingers did not execute nearly well enough. Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman will be crucial to Bayern’s success in the second decisive leg if they start. Flick might even want to add golden boy, Alphonso Davies to the mix to provide more width on the left-hand side to attack PSG. The Germans must lay it all out on the table if they want any sort of positive result in the quarterfinals.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the PSG moneyline at +215. The Parisians lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League final last year, and ultimately this will be their revenge. Lewandowski is too much of a loss for the defending champions and it is frankly hard to see them coming back from the dead. Finally, this bet has tremendous value as PSG are also the home team in this quarterfinal leg, which makes it the best value bet.

My Pick: PSG moneyline (+215)

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