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Real Madrid vs PSG Odds & Prediction – Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 9, 2022 · 9:15 AM PST

Kylian Mbappe
PSG's Kylian Mbappe scores his side's third goal during the French League One soccer match between Paris Saint Germain and Saint-Etienne at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)
  • It’s Real Madrid vs PSG in the Champions League on Wednesday, March 9 at 3:00 pm ET
  • PSG lead 1-0 from the first leg thanks to a late goal from Real Madrid target Kylian Mbappe
  • We preview the game, look at the Real Madrid vs PSG odds, and offer some picks below

It is Real Madrid vs PSG in the second-leg of their UEFA Champions League tie on Wednesday, March 9 at 3:00 pm ET at the Bernabeu. The Spanish giants face a 1-0 deficit from the first leg at the Parc des Princes, with the only goal of the game coming from Kylian Mbappe.

We preview Real Madrid vs PSG and offer below the best picks for this massive UCL clash.

Real Madrid vs PSG Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Real Madrid vs PSG RMA -0.5 (+148) | PSG +0.5 (-180) RMA +150 | DRAW +270 | PSG +170 Ov 2.5 (-175) | Un 2.5 (+140)

Odds as of March 8 at Barstool Sportsbook

The bookies expect this to be very tight but have made Real Madrid slight favorites at +150 in the Champions League odds with an implied win probability of 40%. PSG at +170 for the win has an implied probability of 37%. Interestingly, for a game that will be close, under 2.5 goals is pitched at +140.

Despite Real Madrid being slight favorites, public money at DraftKings Sportsbook has sided with PSG. 60% of the handle and 52% of the bet count has been placed on PSG as of Wednesday morning. Real Madrid has received 33% of the handle and 37% of the bets. The draw has 7% and 11% of the action.

If you’re new to this sport and need advice on soccer betting’s pros and cons, there are plenty of directions you can go to betting this match and others.

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Work to Do for Real

The first leg was all about Kylian Mbappe, whose 94th-minute goal was the difference between the two sides. Ironically, there are rumors abound that the young Frenchman will head to the Bernabeu in the summer on a free transfer to join Los Blancos, but he did his possible new employers no favors with that late goal.

It could however have been worse for Real Madrid who was thankful to keeper Thibaut Courtois who saved a Lionel Messi penalty on 62 minutes after Mbappe had been tripped in the box. But since that defeat, Carlo Ancelotti’s team has won three La Liga games on the spin including a 4-1 win over Real Sociedad on Saturday.

Ancelotti’s Men in a Good Place

Despite their great history in this competition, Los Blancos have found life tough in the UCL in recent seasons and have exited the competition at the round-of-16 stage twice in the last three. Also worth noting is that they have only overcome a first-leg deficit once in their last ten two-legged cup ties.

Real do, however, come into this game in a good place and have not lost at home in their last 13 – a run that stretches back to last September when they lost in the UCL to Sheriff Tiraspol. With their confidence sky high, they will be confident of overturning PSG’s slender lead.

Real Madrid vs PSG Head-to-Head Stats

Real Madrid
VS
PSG
5-0-1 UCL group stage record 3-2-1
14 Goals for 13
3 Goals against 8
1st Position in group 2nd
W-D-L-W-W-W Form guide (all competitions) W-W-W-L-W-L

Mbappe Makes the Difference

Despite their star-studded line-up, PSG still relies heavily on the pace and skill of Mbappe and it was no coincidence that without him in the team they fell to their second defeat in three Ligue 1 games at the weekend when they lost 1-0 in Nice.

It still looks odds-on that PSG will win the Ligue 1 title this season despite the recent blip – they still have a 13-point lead at the top – but manager Mauricio Pochetino will not want this lack of domestic momentum, particularly away from home, to impact on their quest to win their first-ever Champions League.

Poch Under Pressure

Despite being funded to the tune of multi-millions by the state of Qatar, the biggest prize in European soccer has so far eluded the Parisiens and Pochettino is under massive pressure to deliver. They have, however, in recent seasons, earned themselves a reputation as chokers, after losing a few times despite going into the second-leg of UCL knockout games with a lead.

Pochettino, himself, has failed to win all of his last four away games in the UCL and, in addition, the Parisiens have won only four of their last 10 away games in all competitions – two of those four coming against lower-tier teams in the French Cup.

Real Madrid vs PSG Best Bets

A fit and fresh Mbappe will clearly be a massive boost for PSG but Ancelotti’s men are on a great run and will be confident of getting the job done. Momentum and belief count for everything at this stage of the season and all of this points to a Real Madrid victory, with a 2-0 win being enough to take them through without the need for extra time.

Picks: Real Madrid to win (+150) / Real Madrid to win 2-0 (+1300)

 

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