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Serie A Matchday 35 Odds & Picks: Juventus vs AC Milan, Benevento vs Cagliari & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

May 6, 2021 · 7:22 PM PDT

Serie A Matchday 35
AC Milan's Hakan Calhanoglu celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Sassuolo at the San Siro stadium, in Milan, Italy, Wednesday, April 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
  • Serie A Matchday 35 beings on Saturday, May 8, 2021
  • Juventus and AC Mikan will battle with hopes on maintaining a spot in the top four
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 35 here

Italy’s Serie A Matchday 35 kicks off at 9:00 am EST Saturday morning with Spezia hosting Napoli and Udinese hosting Bologna. With four rounds to play Inter Milan has already wrapped up the Scudetto. However, there are still plenty of intriguing matches with Champions League and relegation spots to play for.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 35 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 35 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Spezia vs Napoli +500 +340 -200
Udinese vs Bologna +138 +210 +225
Inter Milan vs Sampdoria -210 +350 +550
Fiorentina vs Lazio +295 +280 -115
Genoa vs Sassuolo +235 +240 +118
Benevento vs Cagliari +210 +245 +128
Parma vs Atalanta +1200 +600 -500
Verona vs Torino +195 +250 +133
Roma vs Crotone -275 +430 +650
Juventus vs AC Milan -137 +285 +370

Odds as of May 6 at DraftKings

Benevento vs Cagliari Prediction

There are huge relegation implications on the line at 9:00 am EST Sunday morning on Serie A Matchday 35 when 17th place Cagliari (32 points) hosts 18th-place Benevento (31 points).

Cagliari have been in blazing form of late with three wins and a draw in their past four. They came into round 34 as heavy underdogs against Napoli, however, found themselves down just 1-0 into stoppage time when Nahitan Nandez scored in the 94′ minute to salvage a point.

That one point now puts them just ahead of their weekend opponents for safety to remain in Serie A. it also extends their point streak to four games which has included wins over Roma (3-2), Udinese (1-0) and Parma (4-3).

Despite taking a point from Napoli, Cagliari could be considerd lucky to have done so given they were outperformed in the expected goals (xGA) category at 2-1 to 1.3.

Meanwhile Benevento is slumping to the finish line. They are now winless in six matches and have collected three points just once in 18 rounds. A 2-0 loss to AC Milan last weekend was also their fourth-straight match in allowing multiple goals—a run of matches which have seen them outscored 13-7. Not surprisingly, all four of those matches have gone OVER 2.5 totals.

It was a 2-1 road win for Benevento earlier this season. In fact in all three historical meetings between the sides the final score has read 2-1 one way or another.

Benevento closes out the season with this match, plus games against Atalanta, Crotone and Torino in the final weeks. Cagliari will face Fiorentina, AC Milan and Genoa. Both teams have winnable and also tough games upcoming. But with games against Crotone and Torino still to come, Benevento has the easier run on paper. Making this match for Cagliari, even all the more important.

We just saw a match between two teams, one of which was Cagliari who were in a relegation dogfight a few weeks back when Cagliari beat Parma 4-3. This one has a similar look to to me.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+100 at Bet365)

Parma vs Atalanta Prediction

Atalanta rolls into the Emilia-Romagna region in second place in the league to face 19th place Parma at 9:00 am EST Sunday morning in Serie A Matchday 35. The title may have been won but Atalanta still holds the pole position in the top four race. They’re level on points (69) with Juventus and AC Milan and just two above Napoli who sit in fifth.

In January Atalanta ran out as 3-0 winners over Parma, and La Dea has won five of the past six meetings between the two to go with a single draw.

Given Atalanta’s torrid pace of late that historical edge should likely continue. After a loss to title-winners Inter back on March 21, Atalanta won five-straight before drawing 1-1 with Roma, despite dominating the match prior to taking a red card. They then thumped Bologna 5-0 and drew 1-1 again with Sassuolo last week. It was a wild match that included red cards by both sides and a missed penalty by Luis Muriel which could’ve given La Dea the victory.

In their last seven, Atalanta have scored multiple goals in four, and recorded double-digit expected goals in five.

Against a Parma side that has now been officially relegated after Monday’s 1-0 loss to Torino, La Dea should control this match. They hold an average of 53.7-percent possession, fourth-best in the league, compared to just 48-percent for Parma. Atalanta have the most attacking third and penalty area touches in Serie A. While Parma have allowed their opponents the fourth-most attacking third touches this season.

Prior to Monday’s loss close loss against Torino, Parma had conceded multiple goals in six-straight and in 15 of 16 overall matches. They also have just one win in 26 overall (25 in Serie A) matches. That’s not going to change this weekend.

There’s a chance this one gets ugly for Parma so backing Atalanta -2 will get you a push if they win by two, and a win for a three-goal or more victory.

Pick: Atalanta -2 (-118)

Juventus vs AC Milan Prediction

From the relegation heap to a battle for Champions League places in the top four, Juventus hosts AC Milan at 2:45 pm EST Sunday afternoon to conclude Serie A Matchday 35.

Milan, leading the table for much of the first half of the season, have been sinking and currently find themselves just barely holding onto a top four spot. Back-to-back losses to Sassuolo and Lazio, didn’t help their casue. Yet they were able to rebound last week with a 2-0 home win over Benevento.

Juventus had a setback against Atalanta, but are since undefeated in three with a win over Parma, draw with Fiorentina and a win last week over Udinese. That win was tough to come by though with Udinese scoring in the opening ten minutes and holding that lead until an 83′ minute Ronaldo penalty. Ronaldo would add a second in 89′ to salvage the win for Juve.

Juve were 3-1 winners back in January when these teams last met. While last season the sides met on four occasions. It was a 1-0 home win for Juve and 4-2 home win for Milan in the league, with 1-1 and 0-0 draws in the Coppa Italia, with Juve advancing.

Milan actually hasn’t played well against the top sides in Serie A for some time. Going back to the start of 2021, against teams currently in the top eight they are a combined 1-0-6 (WDL). The one win came against Roma (2-1) in February, and Roma has been abysmal against the top sides themselves this season.

Meanwhile Juventus, in the past eight rounds, have a loss to Benvento, draw with Torino, draw with Fiorentina and a near loss to Udinese on their resume—with all of those aforementioned sides ranking in the bottom-half of the table.

I’d give Juve the slight edge in this one, but truthfully don’t have full confidence in either side. A point for both wouldn’t be ideal given the closeness of the top four, but it also wouldn’t be the worst outcome as they look to stay above Napoli and Lazio. Therefore I’ll bet on a draw.

Pick: Draw (+285)

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