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Sweden vs Poland Odds & Prediction – Euro 2020 Group E June 23rd, 2021

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Jun 22, 2021 · 9:52 AM PDT

Sweden vs Poland
Sweden's Alexander Isak, right, congratulates his teammate Robin Quaison during the Euro 2020 soccer championship group E match between Sweden and Slovakia, at the Saint Petersburg stadium, in Saint Petersburg, Russia, Friday, June 18, 2021. (Anatoly Maltsev, Pool via AP)
  • Sweden plays Poland in the final Group E Matchday of the Euro 2020 tournament on Wednesday, June 23rd at 12:00 pm ET
  • Group E remains as one of the more interesting groups at Euro 2020, with all teams having a shot to qualify for the knockout rounds on the last matchday
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

As we go into the last matchday of Group E at the Euro 2020 tournament, eyes have to be directed at Sweden vs Poland, who play their final match in Saint Petersburg. Despite being paired in a group alongside Spain, Sweden have shockingly managed to place themselves at the top of Group E after two matches. They have not officially qualified for the knockout rounds, but a win or draw in this game against Poland will take them through.

The most impressive aspect of Sweden’s game so far at the Euros has been their defense. Janne Andersson’s side has held their opposition scoreless across 180 minutes of play, which will give them some much needed confidence before squaring off with Robert Lewandowski. For Poland, a win would only take them to third place. While the four best third place teams advance, Poland will want their foot on the gas for the full 90 minutes in case the tiebreaker comes down to goal difference.

Sweden vs Poland Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Sweden vs Poland SWE +0.5 (-186) | POL -0.5 (+155) SWE +185 | POL +155 | DRAW +235 Ov 2.5 (+125) | Un 2.5 (-152)

Odds as of June 21 at DraftKings

Overall, Group E has been one of the more intriguing group’s at Euro 2020. It currently has the second-fewest goals, however, it has been the definition of wide-open. Spain have proved they are not the team of past years and with Slovakia shocking Poland, this group got put on its head. The fact that all teams can qualify on the last day is remarkable, and the matchup between Sweden and Poland is one you must keep your eyes on.

Can Lewandowski Break Down the Swedish Defense?

In Poland’s first match against Slovakia, Lewandowski was essentially a non-factor. I reiterated before the Poland and Spain game that the Bayern Munich number nine needed to have an impact performance for Poland to see out a result. Ultimately, Lewandowksi got his goal and Poland got a much needed point to stay alive. The same goes for this match against Sweden. However, the Swedish pairing of Victor Lindelof and Filip Helander will be much harder to break down.

Sweden vs Poland Statistics

1.18 Goals per game 1.67
10.3 Shots per game 10.2
44.9% Possession % 49.6%
80.5% Passing % 80.9%

Furthermore, in the past three months, Sweden have only conceded one goal. While Lewandowski did manage to score against a stingy Spanish defense, he could have a harder time on Wednesday. Poland are without their two other first choice strikers and had to go with Karol Swiderski in their last match, putting them at a disadvantage. Sweden have proven in both games at Euro 2020 that they can control a game with ease. For that reason, I have a hard time seeing Poland controlling the pace of this match.

Do Not be Surprised if Sweden Rotate

One thing that is very possible to see is a slightly rotated Sweden side. In a tournament like this it is imperative to keep fresh legs, and with four points, Andersson has to think about rotation in this Poland game. One name to look out for is Robin Quaison, who has came on as a sub in both of Sweden’s matches so far.

Regardless, Sweden have plenty of depth and talent to put in a solid performance. In fact, 21-year-old Alexander Isak has been one of the standouts of the tournament so far. Isak, alongside Emil Forsberg could provide all the offense that Sweden could need going forward to win this match. Historically, the odds are also in favor of Sweden as this is a head-to-head match Poland have not won in since 1991.

Sweden vs Poland Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Sweden moneyline at +185. Poland has been quite disappointing so far at Euro 2020. To be able to bet on the current group leader as they play the last-place team with plus odds is what makes this pick so valuable. International football is different than the club level, and often times it can be more defensive. Sweden have the better defense by far, and I favor them to do a very good job against Lewandowski on Wednesday.

Pick: Sweden moneyline (+185)

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