Super Bowl Props – Which Team Will Commit More Penalties
Welcome back to our series of prop bet articles. Yesterday, we took a look at the over/under on Russell Wilson TD passes.
Today, we’re analyzing which team will commit more penalties.
The odds are currently as follows:
Most penalties (excluding declined penalties):
- New England Patriots: +125
- Seattle Seahawks: -150
On the surface, there’s a good reason the Seahawks are favored (at -150). Seattle led the league this year with 130 yellow flags; however, a closer inspection reveals 29 of those penalties were of the false start variety. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has to chalk that up as the cost of doing business at CenturyLink Field, which is often raucous even when the home team has the ball.
University of Phoenix Stadium – with its hordes of corporate-types in town for their one football game of the year – isn’t likely to be noisy pre-snap. If the Seahawk O-line can stay focused – which they ought to be able to in the damn Super Bowl – the false start numbers should come down.
Furthermore, the 2014 season was dominated by defensive interference penalties, which is one area where Seattle was much better than New England; the Seahawks had 16 defensive holding calls, two illegal contact calls, and six pass interference calls. What we can take away from that is the Seahawks’ defensive backfield – by no surprise – is solid in coverage.
Conversely, the New England Patriots defense had 22 defensive holding, three illegal contact, and nine pass interference penalties.
The Patriots have a good offensive line which only gave up 26 sacks all year. But it’s one of the worst kept secrets in the NFL that Tom Brady does not like to get hit. The New York Giants beat the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl by barraging the Pats with blitzes and making the New England pivot uneasy in the pocket.
Seattle doesn’t blitz a ton, but its front four does a decent job of getting pressure, which means the Patriots offensive will likely be holding to keep its quarterback upright.
Considering the Patriot secondary’s proclivity for clutching and grabbing, and the possibility of numerous holding penalties, the Patriots at +125 is a decent prop to consider.
(Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo may appear cropped.)
John Benson is a die-hard football and basketball fan who also dabbles in the dark art of entertainment betting. With over two decades of experience in the sports writing and betting industry, he brings a wealth of knowledge and a pint of wisdom to his diverse endeavors on SportsBettingDime.com.
