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2019 Noventi Open Final Odds & Pick: Federer vs Goffin

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Jun 22, 2019 · 3:12 PM PDT

Halle, Germany
Can Roger Federer earn another win at Halle? He's won the title 10 other times. Photo by Justin Smith (flickr) [CC License].
  • Roger Federer will face David Goffin in the final at Halle
  • Goffin has won all four of his matches at Halle but was just 10-14 on the season before that
  • Federer is 7-1 in his career against Goffin

We’ve reached the final at the 2019 Noventi Open in Halle, Germany and a familiar face is back in the last match: Roger Federer. Federer has won a record 10 titles at Halle and will be looking to take down David Goffin for his 11th at the Wimbledon warmup. Is Federer the best bet or can Goffin surprise?

2020 ATP Halle Final Matchup Odds

Player Halle Final Odds
Roger Federer +450
David Goffin -5454

Federer has Been Tested Through this Event

Federer normally rolls right through this event and while that’s mostly what’s happened in 2019, he’s had a couple of surprising close calls. Federer needed three sets in his second-round matchup with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Then he needed three sets against Roberto Bautista Agut.

While his other two matches were straight sets, it is a bit surprising that he’s dropped two sets to this point. He was originally the -125 favorite to win this tournament and now the line has climbed to -545 as he’s in the final.

Goffin has Looked Good

David Goffin is actually an unseeded player at this event but he’s looked good en route to the finals. He’s had some close calls but did earn a quality win over Alex Zverev, who was the No. 2 seed in this event. That’s important as Goffin hasn’t played very well this entire calendar year.

Prior to Halle, Goffin was just 10-14 on the year and hadn’t made it past the third match of an event at all in 2019. Is he finally on track or is this just a good little burst against weak competition? Zverev isn’t great on grass, so we can’t put too much stock into that. The fact that he needed three sets against unseeded Radu Albot before that is telling.

Goffin Not Particularly Great on Grass

While we’re left to figure it out if Goffin has got it together or whether this is just an easy tournament for him in terms of competition, it’s worth noting that he’s not great on grass. He was 0-2 on the surface last year, 5-2 in 2016 and 6-3 in 2015. In 2012 and 2013 he was a combined 2-7. He didn’t play a single match on grass on 2017.

That’s a concern when you factor who he’s going up against. Even though Federer is in the twilight of his career, he’s still a combined 14-3 in his last 17 matches on grass over the last two seasons. That’s not a good sign for Goffin.

Federer is the Best Bet

Federer has won seven of his eight meetings with Goffin. The only time he lost was on an indoor hard surface at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2017. They’ve only squared off on grass once before, which came at Halle in 2016. Federer cleaned him out 6-1 and 7-6.

It’s true that Goffin is playing as well as he has all year but given his history in this matchup and his track record on grass, I’m not expecting a win here. Federer is definitely not a lock as he once used to be on grass but I like him in this spot.

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