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2023 Australian Open Men’s Singles Odds and Best Bets – Djokovic is Back

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jan 15, 2023 · 7:00 AM PST

Novak Djokovic arrived in Adelaide last week - his first day on Australian soil since his deportation a year ago. He and brother Marko (right) and friend and hitting partner Carlos Gomez-Herrera donned matching shirts for the occasion (Photo: Stephanie Myles/OpenCourt.ca)
  • Novak Djokovic is back in Melbourne, a year after missing the 2022 Australian Open
  • He’s looking for his 10th career title; defending champ Rafael Nadal is not a top favorite
  • Scroll down as we look for upsets, and examine who (or what) might stop Djokovic in his quest

A year ago, just as the 2022 Australian Open was starting, Novak Djokovic was on a plane out of Australia, after he was deported because of visa issues. That deportation could have come with a three-year ban but the Australian government waived it and the 35-year-old Serb is back and looking for his 10th Australian Open Men’s Singles. title.

He’s going to be hard to stop.

Australian Open Open Men’s Singles Odds

Seed Player Odds
[4] Novak Djokovic (SRB) -122
[7] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +600
[19] Nick Kyrgios (AUS) +1400
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) +1600
[6] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) +1600
[2] Taylor Fritz (USA) +1600
[3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +1600
[9] Holger Rune (DEN) +2000
[15] Jannik Sinner (ITA) +2000
[13] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) +2500
[2] Casper Ruud (NOR) +2500
[12] Alexander Zverev (GER) +3500
[29] Sebastian Korda (USA) +5000
[11] Cameron Norrie (GBR) +6600
[5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) +6600
[20] Denis Shapovalov (CAN) +10000
[16] Frances Tiafoe (USA) +10000

Odds as of Jan. 15 at Barstool Sportsbook.  Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Australian Open.

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Djokovic began his trip with a win at the ATP 250 in Adelaide the week of Jan. 2. An overwhelmingly warm reception from his fans – who turned out in huge numbers – buoyed him to victory.

YouTube video

He defeated 2021 and 2022 Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the semifinals, and Sebastian Korda in a final that went three hours, nine minutes and ended up 6-7 (8), 7-6 (3), 6-4.

Hamstring Could be an Issue for Djokovic

The only cloud on the horizon is a left hamstringn strain that had him go off court for a medical timeout against Medvedev in Adelaide. He wasn’t at 100 per cent in that final, either.

And last week in Melbourne, practicing with Medvedev before a big crowd on Rod Laver Arena, he had the hamstring treated several times before begging off the practice match after one set.


Tough Opener for Nadal

There isn’t much about the last six months of Rafael Nadal’s career that tells you he’s in good nick to defend his  title.

Nadal is the No. 1 seed, after the withdrawal of world No. 1, his countryman Carlos Alcaraz.

The Mallorcan has played little since giving Nick Kyrgios a walkover in the Wimbledon semifinal last July.  And he lost both matches he played in the United Cup event to start the season – both after winning the first set: one to Cameron Norrie, and the other to Alex de Minaur.

He’ll probably answer the bell, he always does. But will the body hold up?

Quarterfinal Bracket Busters

–[1] Rafael Nadal vs. [7] Daniil Medvedev (No. 20 Denis Shapovalov, No. 29 Sebastian Korda)
–[3] Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. [6] Félix Auger-Aliassime (No. 11 Cameron Norrie, No. 15 Jannik Sinner)
–[4] Novak Djokovic vs. [5] Andrey Rublev (No. 19 Nick Kyrgios)
–[2] Casper Ruud vs. [8] Taylor Fritz (No. 13 Matteo Berrettini)

Kyrgios the Wild Card for Djokovic

Mercurial Aussie Nick Kyrgios is behind only Djokovic and Medvedev in the odds.

But he withdrew from all his season-starting tournament commitments, with an ankle issue (and a perennially sore knee).

Previous Australian Open Men’s Champions

Year Champion Runner-Up
2022 Rafael Nadal (ESP) Daniil Medvedev (RUS)
2021 Novak Djokovic (SRB) Daniil Medvedev (RUS)
2020 Novak Djokovic (SRB) Dominic Thiem (AUT)
2019 Novak Djokovic (SRB) Rafael Nadal (ESP)
2018 Roger Federer (SUI) Marin Cilic (CRO)
2017 Roger Federer (SUI) Rafael Nadal (ESP)
2016 Novak Djokovic (SRB) Andy Murray (GBR)
2015 Novak Djokovic (SRB) Andy Murray (GBR)
2014 Stan Wawrinka (SUI) Rafael Nadal (ESP)
2013 Novak Djokovic (SRB) Andy Murray (GBR)

The wrinkle is that he’s in the Djokovic section; his road would go through Holger Rune and Rublev before he could meet the Serb in the quarterfinals.

Of the top seeds, only Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown some staying power until the pointy end of the tournament – he’s been a semifinalist three of the last four years.

Australian Open Open Men’s Top Seeds – Best Results

Player Appearances Main Draw Career W/L Best Result
[1] Rafael Nadal 17 76-15 Champion (2009, 2022)
[2] Casper Ruud 5 4-3 R16 (2021)
[3] Stefanos Tsitsipas 6 15-5 SF (2019, 2021, 2022)
[4] Novak Djokovic 17 82-8 Champion (9X)
[5] Andrey Rublev 6 12-6 QF (2021)
[6] Félix Auger-Aliassime 4 7-3 QF (2022)
[7] Daniil Medvedev 6 19-6 F (2021, 2022)
[8] Taylor Fritz 7 9-6 R16 (2022)

First-Round Match Predictions

[20] Denis Shapovalov vs Dusan Lajovic (Over 3.5 sets: +106)

[1] Rafael Nadal vs Jack Draper (Over 38.5 Games: -114)

[27] Lorenzo Musetti vs Lloyd Harris (Musetti in Three Sets: +185)

John Millman vs Marc-Andrea Huesler (Millman in Four Sets: +480)

Best Bet: Novak Djokovic (-122)

Longshot: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1600)


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