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After Winning the Western & Southern Open, Daniil Medvedev’s US Open Odds as Short as 16-1

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 8:11 AM PDT

US Open
Will Daniil Medvedev shine on the big stage at the 2019 U.S. Open? Photo by Davidwboswell (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Daniil Medvedev won his first tournament of the year at Cincinnati this past weekend
  • Medvedev has made it to the finals in three straight hard court tournaments
  • He’s also registered the most wins (31) on hard courts this season of any player on the ATP Tour

Daniil Medvedev was a surprise winner at the Cincinnati Masters this past weekend. It’s no surprise that his average US Open odds have shortened to +1700, (they were +3300 last week and +6700 a month ago), while now as low as +1600. Is he actually a threat to win at Flushing Meadows, though, or is this merely a good showing at a small tournament?

2019 US Open Odds

Player Odds
Novak Djokovic +110
Rafael Nadal +400
Roger Federer +600
Daniil Medvedev +1600
Alexander Zverev +2000
Juan Martin Del Potro +2000
Dominic Thiem +2500
Marin Cilic +2500
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2500
Nick Kyrgios +2800

*Odds taken August 19, 2019. 

Medvedev Has Impressed This Year

The hard courts have been friendly to Medvedev, the 23-year-old Russian who won his first title of the year on Sunday. He made an impressive run at the Cincinnati Masters, ousting No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic along the way. Nobody expected that.

Medvedev hasn’t just been a flash in the pan as he made it to the finals at the Rogers Cup the week before, losing in the final to Rafael Nadal, and also made it to the final at the Citi Open right before the Rogers Cup, losing in the last match to Nick Kyrgios.

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On the year, Medvedev is now 38-16 and his 31 wins on the hard court are the most by any player. He’s shot up the rankings as he’s No. 8 in the world, which is a huge ascent considering he was hovering in the mid-50’s last September.

Shaky History at Majors

The main concern with Medvedev is that he hasn’t performed well at grand slams. This is a guy who was ousted in the third round at Wimbledon, the first round at the French Open and the fourth round at the Australian Open. Specifically, at the U.S. Open, he’s never made it past the third round.

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However, one thing to keep in mind is that he’s just 23 years old. He looks like he’s entering his prime now, which means we can’t necessarily take those previous numbers into account. Hard courts are his best surface and he did show well at the Australian Open. He was just one of two players to win a set off of eventual winner, Novak Djokovic.

Some Red Flags

I do have some reservations with Medvedev at the US Open. To start, I’m not sure if he’s actually in the ranks of the elite or whether he’s merely beat up on weaker competition. Yes, he does have the win over Djokovic but he did get smoked 6-3, 6-0 by Nadal in the Rogers Cup final. That’s not a competitive score.

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Looking further back, Medvedev also lost to Kyrgios in straight sets in the final at the Citi Open. He’s just 6-4 in his last 10 matches against Top 10 players and 8-12 in his last 50. That’s a concern as he’ll have to face a number of them at the US Open.

What’s the Best Bet?

I do believe Medvedev has a shot to win at the US Open. He’s the hottest player on the ATP Tour right now and he excels on the hard courts. When you look at the odds for the last grand slam of the year, I’d either bet Djokovic as the favorite or Medvedev as a flier. There’s a risk with Nadal and Roger Federer, and their prices are too short for my liking.

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As far as the rest of the field, nobody else stands out to me.

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