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Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas Odds & Prediction – French Open Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jun 5, 2023 · 12:35 PM PDT

Carlos Alcaraz (ESP). Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas
Jun 4, 2023; Paris,France; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) celebrates winning his match against Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) on day eight at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • Carlos Alcaraz is a strong favorite against Stefanos Tsitipas in their French Open quarterfinal
  • Both Alcaraz and Tsitsipas have dropped just one set in four matches so far
  • Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction

No. 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz vs No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas is a quarterfinal that ran true to form, with both players dropping just one set on their way to their quarterfinal (Tuesday, 2:15 p.m. ET). Read on for an analysis of Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas.

Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) -6.5 (-102) -500 O 35.5 (-118)
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +6.5 (-130) +375 U 35.5 (-110)

At -500 odds, Alcaraz is a strong favorite in the Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas final Tuesday at the French Open. Tsitsipas is the underdog at +375 odds.


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No. 1 – and a Big Favorite

At the start of the year, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal were the co-favorites to win in Paris. Since the draw 10 days ago, Alcaraz has taken over that mantle.

Alcaraz took back the No. 1 ranking from Novak Djokovic after the Italian Open, despite losing a shocker in his second match, against qualifier Fabian Marozsan.

But it might have been a blessing in disguise because after running the table in both Barcelona and Madrid, a break before the French Open wasn’t the worst thing in the world. He won 12 matches in those two events, and dropped just two sets.

The winner of this one would face Djokovic in the semifinals, if Djokovic gets past No. 11 seed Karen Khachanov in a match played a little earlier Tuesday.

Tsmooth Tsailing for Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas has had a low-key 2023 even if he’s 31-8 on the season. He began impressively, going undefeated in the team event, the United Cup and getting to the Australian Open final.

But since then, he has reached just one final – in Barcelona against Alcaraz. He was beaten by Taylor Fritz in Monte Carlo, and by Jan-Lennard Struff in Rome.

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But his draw in Paris has been ideal. No. 455 Jiri Vesely, was playing on a protected ranking, but took a set from him and came close to pushing it to a fifth and deciding set before Tsitsipas shut that down. Tsitsipas then beat Roberto Carballes Baena, a struggling Diego Schwartzman and qualifier Sebastian Ofner, all in straight sets.

This will be a serious bump up in class for him.

Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz
Stefanos Tsitsipas
20 (May 5, 2003) Age 24 (Aug. 12, 1998)
El Palmar, Spain Birthplace Athens, Greece
6-0 Height 6-4
10 Career ATP Singles Titles 9
No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 3 (Aug. 9, 2021)
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 5
$15,536,017 Career Prize Money $25,960,665
34-3 2022 Won/Loss Record 31-8
4 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Alcaraz faced some quality young opponents in Denis Shapovalov and Lorenzo Musetti. And he dismissed them both with alacrity; only once in six sets did either player get more than three games.

That should concern Tsitsipas greatly since he hasn’t beaten the young Spaniard in four previous attempts.

Alcaraz 4-0 vs Tsitsipas

The last two meetings between the two have been on the red clay, both in Barcelona (last month, and in 2022).

Tsitsipas was playing better a year ago, and still lost in three sets. Last month, in the final, Alcaraz posted a routine victory.

Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2023 Barcelona (F) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-4 Alcaraz
2022 Barcelona (QF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 Alcaraz
2022 Miami Masters (R16) Outdoor Hard 7-5, 6-3 Alcaraz
2021 US Open (R32) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 (2), 0-6, 7-6 (5) Alcaraz

As Alcaraz said after his fourth-round win, his game just matches up well against that of Tsitsipas, for whom clay is probably the favored surface.

His problem is that it’s the best surface for Alcaraz as well. And he’s better on it – he has more firepower, more ways to win points and an aggressive mindset even on the slower surface that Tsitsipas still hasn’t developed.

Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas Prediction

It’s a pretty watershed match for Tsitsipas, who needs something big to happen to basically relaunch this season. This is the most likely place for him to do it; unfortunately for him, he didn’t get into Daniil Medvedev or Casper Ruud’s quarter.

If the 24-year-old from Greece has an inspired day, he might take a set. But we’re calling for Alcaraz to win in four without too much trouble. He’s just too good.

But the sets should be fairly close; over 37.5  games at +106 is a reasonable bet.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 Sets  (-142)


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