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ATP 2019 Mexican Open Odds & Picks: Nadal the Favorite

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Feb 25, 2019 · 6:48 AM PST

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal is favored to win the Mexican Open. Photo by Brett Marlow (flickr) [CC License].
  • Rafael Nadal is favored to win the Mexican Open, also called the Abierto Mexicano Telcel ATP 500 tournament.
  • Contested since 1993, the event switched from clay courts to hard surfaces in 2014.
  • Last year, it was voted the No. 1 tournament on the ATP Tour.

Among the most popular stops on the ATP Tour, the Mexican Open always draws an A-list field of competitors due to that fact, and this year is no exception.

World No. 2 Rafael Nadal of Spain headlines the list of starters when the event gets underway Monday. Nadal is favored to win the event, with odds of +187.

2019 Mexican Open Men’s Singles Odds

Player Odds to Win 2019 Mexican Open Men’s Singles at Bet365
Rafael Nadal +187
Alexander Zverev +225
Stan Wawrinka +1100
John Isner +1100
Alex De Minaur +1400
Nick Krygios +2000
Diego Schwartzman +2000
John Millman +2500
Frances Tiafoe +2500
Mackenzie MacDonald +3300
Sam Querrey +3300
Cameron Norrie +4000
Yoshihito Nishioka +4000
Taylor Fritz +5000
David Ferrer +5000
Steve Johnson +5000

*Odds taken on 02/25/19. Follow link in the table above for a complete list of all players.

This will be Nadal’s first tournament action in four weeks, since his straight-set loss to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final. He’s won the Mexican Open in 2005 and 2013.

Nadal Could Face a Mexican Standoff

He is the top seed, but Nadal will face stiff competition. If the form charts hold on his side of the draw, he could come up against Nick Krygios in the second round. Krygios has defeated Nadal twice.

Win there and Nadal might be staring across the net at Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka recently lost in the final at Rotterdam, but beat two of the world’s top 15 players en route to that final appearance.

Should Nadal hold his seed and reach the final, it’s quite possible that he’d end up facing Alexander Zverev, the third-ranked player in the ATP.

Defending Champ Sidelined

Argentina’s Juan Martin del Potro, who won the 2018 Mexican Open final 6-4, 6-4 over South Africa’s Kevin Anderson, won’t be on hand to defend his title.

He was a late withdrawal from the tournament due to discomfort in his ailing right knee.

The No. 4-ranked player in the world, del Potro recently returned to action in Delray Beach following a fourth-month layoff due to his injured knee, but lost in the quarterfinals.

Plenty of Meat in the Field

Two other past Mexican Open winners join Nadal in the field. Sam Querrey won the 2017 title, defeating Nadal 6-3, 7-6(7-3) in the final.

Then there is the grandaddy of Mexian Open champions, David Ferrer. He’s won the event four times since 2010, incuding three straight from 2010-12.

Ferrer also won in 2015, making him the only player to win the tournament in both its clay court and hard surface existence.

In 2013, Ferrer lost in the final to Nadal.

Is it Zverev’s Time?

Last year, Zverev got to the semifinal stage in Mexico before he was ousted by del Potro. Certainly, the way the draw has fallen should enhance his chances of going at least one step further this year and reaching the tournament final.

Always an intriguing figure, Zverev seems to be forever on the cusp of taking that next step up among the tennis elite but manages to stub his toe when that moment arrives.

A pro for six years, sometimes it’s easy to forget that Zverev is still only 21. He’s 5-1 on court so far this year, winning a pair of Davis Cup matches for Germany and reaching the round of 16 in the Australian Open before falling to Canada’s Milos Raonic.

Where to Find Value?

As much as it might be easy to tout Nadal, there’s plenty of reason to think this won’t be his tournament to win. He hasn’t played in a month. Will he be rusty? He’s never won the Mexican Open on a hard surface. Both his wins were on clay.

Nadal has never won the Mexican Open on a hard surface. Both his wins were on clay.

Should you get sentimental and make a play on Ferrer at a great price? The 36-year-old veteran is on his retirement tour, is ranked 148th in the world and it’s never advisable to wager with your heart.

We think Querrey could be the shrewd value play here. He won here two years ago and has been close to breaking through for a big win for some time now. Eight of his 22 match losses last season were in final-set tie breaks. And he owns 20 career victories against top-10 opponents.

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