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Odds Say Nadal Wins 1 Grand Slam in 2019; Federer Doesn’t Win Any

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 3:26 PM PDT

Roger Federer
Roger Federer won the 2018 Australian Open but then saw his game fall apart the rest of the year. Photo by Tatiana (flickr).
  • Rafael Nadal will win one Grand Slam title in 2019, while Roger Federer won’t win any 
  • Nadal won the French Open last year
  • Federer won the Australian Open in 2018

The first man in tennis history to win 20 Grand Slams, Roger Federer also became the second-oldest man to win a tennis Grand Slam when he captured the Australian Open to launch the 2018 Grand Slam season at the age of 36 years and 173 days.

Can Federer break the mark of Ken Rosewall, who was 37 years and 63 days old when he won the 1972 Australian Open title?

If so, oddsmakers don’t believe that the Swiss star will make it happen this year. They are offering odds that Federer won’t earn a single one of the four tennis Grand Slam titles in 2019.

As for Federer’s greatest rival, Spain’s Rafael Nadal, the oddmakers are of the opinion that he will win a solitary Grand Slam title in 2019.

Rafael Nadal Projected 2019 Grand Slam Wins

Total Odds on Number Of Rafael Nadal 2019 Grand Slam Wins
None +200
Exactly One -105
Exactly Two +375
Exactly Three +2200
All Four +20000

*Odds taken 12/18

Nadal won the French Open in 2018, leaving him second to Federer with 17 Grand Slam titles. As per usual, he’s the heavy favorite in 2019 French Open odds.

Nadal’s Feats Of Clay

No one compares to Nadal when it comes to the clay court surface, and it’s likely that no one ever will. Nadal has won 81 consecutive matches on clay courts, the longest single surface win streak of any player in the Open era of tennis.

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That includes a record 11 French Open titles, a tournament that Nadal has won the past two seasons. Nadal owns 57 career victories on clay surfaces, also a record.

He also overcame a recent Grand Slam slump, going winless in these events in 2015 and 2016.

Is Roger Over And Out?

Rosewall won three Grand Slam events beyond the age of 35. Federer also has garnered a trio of Grand Slam titles beyond his 35th birthday – the last two Australian Opens and the 2017 Wimbledon crown.

Federer holds the mark of playing in 10 consecutive Grand Slam finals. He’s held the No. 1 position in the ATP rankings for a record total of 310 weeks, including 237 consecutive weeks in succession, also a record.

His next tournament win will be his 100th. Only Jimmy Connors (109) has won more.

Roger Federer Projected 2019 Grand Slam Wins

Total Odds on Number Of Roger Federer 2019 Grand Slam Wins
None -125
Exactly One +150
Exactly Two +700
Exactly Three +6600
All Four +75000

But has Father time finally caught up to Federer? After his Australian Open triumph, his game took a downturn in 2018.

He skipped the French Open, lost in the quarter-finals at Wimbledon, and was eliminated in the fourth round of the U.S. Open.

He won one ATP singles title after June, dropped to No. 3 in the ATP rankings and complained late in the season of a hand injury that caused severe pain in his forearm.

Is it wise to write off Federer, though? In 2016, he was thought to be done after knee surgery and a back injury wiped out most of his season.  In 2017, he bounced back to win two Grand Slam titles and regain his world No. 1 ranking.

He’s still a top three contender in Australian Open odds, but he’s well back of the favorite, Novak Djokovic.

Which Number Should You Serve?

Until someone shows they can dominate Nadal on clay, you have to believe that the French Open title belongs to him again in 2019. But Nadal hasn’t won Wimbledon since 2010 and the Australian Open since 2009.

One seems the logical play here.

Federer went through a downturn to end 2018, but he always seems to start the year strong. We won’t count him out until he stops winning the big ones. Play one Grand Slam win for him as well.

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