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ATP French Open Men’s Singles Final Odds: Nadal vs Thiem

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Jun 8, 2019 · 11:50 AM PDT

Rafael Nadal
Can Rafael Nadal win his 12th French Open crown on Sunday? Photo by Yann Caradec (Wikimedia Commons)
  • Rafael Nadal has dropped just one set in the entire tournament
  • Nadal beat Dominic Thiem in straight sets in the French Open final last year
  • Nadal is just 4-3 in his last seven matches against Thiem

The top four seeds made it to the quarterfinals at the French Open but all along, everyone has been trying to stop just one man: Rafael Nadal. The man who has won 11 French Opens in his career – the most ever – is now heavily favored on the French Open odds to add one more to the collection. Is he the right bet in the final?

2019 French Open Final Odds

Player Odds at Book 1 Odds at Book 2
Rafael Nadal -484 -500
Dominic Thiem +409 +360

*Odds taken 06/08/19

Nadal Has Been on Cruise Control

There were some questions about Nadal’s game early on in the clay-court season. After all, the man who won multiple clay-court events every year since 2005 didn’t even make a single final up until the Italian Open. However, from that point, he’s been on cruise control.

Nadal won the Italian Open – dispatching Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas along the way – and he’s carried that momentum with him to Paris. He’s dropped just one set so far and is coming off back-to-back matches where he cleaned out no. 3 Roger Federer and no. 7 Kei Nishikori. It was actually just the fifth time that Federer didn’t reach double-digit wins in a grand slam.

Nadal Will Be Rested; Thiem Won’t Be

Maybe it’s the draw or maybe it’s just how the ball bounced, but Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem had to square off in their semifinal. Those two players were quite evenly matched on clay and that led to a long-drawn out, five-set contest.

Part of the problem was that a bit of rain and wind led to the suspension of the match on Friday, which means it was pushed back to Saturday. There were already two interruptions and with showers predicted in the forecast, they stopped the match – even with a decent amount of daylight left.

At any rate, Thiem will now have to play on Saturday and then go up against the King of Clay on Sunday, who will be on full rest while Thiem will not. That’s a big advantage for Nadal.

Thiem Outlasts Djokovic

There’s no question that Thiem has had another quality run at Roland Garros. He’s now reached the final in back-to-back years and at least the semis in four straight. He ended Novak Djokovic’s 26-match Grand Slam winning streak. The challenge is that he just completed a long-lasted five-set match that spanned over two days.

If there is a sliver of hope it’s that Thiem beat Nadal at the Barcelona Open this year, taking him out in straight sets 6-4, 6-4. The issue is that Nadal was struggling at that point; now he’s not. Nadal has an 8-4 head-to-head record against Thiem, although he’s just 4-3 in their last seven. Nadal did sweep him 6-4, 6-3 and 6-2 in the French Open final last year.

What’s the Best Bet?

Had there been a good case to bet against Rafa, I’d consider it. As it stands, he’s just the smart bet – even if he loses. He’s the best clay court player of all-time, he’s played better than anyone in this tournament and he’s on full rest while his opponent is not. He’s only lost on clay twice ever. I’m not expecting a third loss here. Lay the juice here.

Pick: Rafael Nadal (-484)

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