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ATP Western & Southern Open Odds & Preview: 11 Top 15 Players Collide in Cincinnati

Dave F.

by Dave F. in Tennis

Aug 14, 2021 · 7:12 AM PDT

Daniil Medvedev forehand swing
Daniil Medvedev, of Russia, returns to David Goffin, of Belgium, in the final game of their men's final match during the Western & Southern Open tennis tournament Sunday, Aug. 18, 2019, in Mason, Ohio. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
  • The ATP Western & Southern Open begins Sunday in Cincinnati
  • Second ranked Daniil Medvedev is the top seed in this U.S. Open warmup event
  • Where is the best betting value when looking through the Western & Southern Open draw?

Last year the Western & Southern Open was shifted from mid-August to late in the month and relocated from Cincinnati to New York. Considered a top US Open prep, in the heat of COVID-19 officials wanted to minimize travel. Things are back to normal this year, though some key names are missing.

While 11 of the Top 15 players in the world are in the Queen City, notably absent are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, and Roger Federer.

Let’s look at the updated odds and see what value we can find in this year’s ATP Western & Southern Open.

Odds to win 2021 ATP Western & Southern Open

Player Odds
Daniil Medvedev +350
Alexander Zverev +550
Stefanos Tsitsipas +650
Andrey Rublev +1200
Matteo Berrettini +1600
Jannik Sinner +2000
Denis Shapovalov +2800
Pablo Carreno Busta +3300
Cameron Norrie +3300
Roberto Bautista Agut +4000
Hubert Hurkacz +4000
Felix Auger-Aliassime +4000
Diego Schwartzman +4000

All odds as of Aug. 14 from BetMGM

The Favorites

Top seed Daniil Medvedev is not playing overly inspiring tennis. While he is winning three or more matches at just about every tournament he enters, it isn’t coming easily. He is going to three sets frequently, and not handling lesser-ranked players with the ease and frequency you might expect for the number two player in the world.

Medvedev was on fire late in 2020, and playing very well at the start of this year. Since then he won in Marseille in March, and got the job done in Mallorca in June. Otherwise he has been inconsistent, and recently was taken out of two tournament’s by lesser-seeded players.

He won in Cincinnati in 2019, and last year fell to Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinals.

Much like Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas is not playing at his highest level right now either. The third-ranked player in the world had an unbelievable start to the year. He reached the semifinals at the Australian Open, and was wildly successful on clay courts. At the French Open he lost to Djokovic in the Final.

Since Paris, Tsitsipas has been mediocre. He lost his first match at Wimbledon, and then failed to win more than two matches in either Hamburg or at the Olympics.

Tsitsipas has never had a lot of success at the US Open. Of his seven career ATP Tour wins, four have come on hard courts, but only one of them was outdoors.

Olympic gold medalist Alexander Zverev seems dangerous. He was playing well on hard courts early in the year, falling to Djokovic in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, and winning in Acapulco before a solid clay court season, and so-so work on grass. Back on hard courts he rolled through Tokyo.

Zverev has won 16 ATP Tournaments, 10 on hard courts, and half of those are outdoors, including a pair this year.

Contenders

Andrey Rublev had an amazing 2020, winning five tournaments. This year has not been as successful, though he did just take mixed doubles gold at the Olympics with partner Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Rublev lost to Medvedev at this year’s Australian Open, but bounced back to win in Rotterdam. He played well in the Middle East, and his clay court season went fine. He was alright on grass, but following Wimbledon is just 1-2 back on hard courts.

Pablo Carreño Busta beat Djokovic in the Bronze Medal match in Tokyo. Not only did he beat the world’s number one player at the Olympics, he took out Medvedev along the way too.

Carreño Busta is in good form having won on clay in Hamburg right before the Olympics. That said, his hard court form at the start of 2020 was not great. Zverev took him out in the semifinals of last year’s U.S. Open.

Longshot

The first American prep for the US Open this year was won by Jannik Sinner in Washington, DC. The 19-year-old then promptly lost his first match in Toronto.

Sinner had an uneven start to the year on hard courts. He won the Great Ocean Road Open Down Under, but then dropped his first round match at the Australian Open. In May he reached the Final at the Miami Open.

Sinner offers a decent price, and is on the same half of the draw as Rublev and Medvedev, both who feel beatable right now.

The Pick

Zverev seems to be playing the best right now, and has had a nice little break since the Olympics to make sure he is fresh. His hard court work is excellent, and he is the most likely winner in Cincinnati.

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