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Once 38-1 Odds Prior to the Tournament, Belinda Bencic Now 7-1 to Win US Open Women’s Singles Entering Quarterfinals

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 11:25 AM PDT

Belinda Bencic
Belinda Bencic stunned Naomi Osaka at the US Open. Can she keep her momentum going? Photo by NAPARAZZI (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • No. 13 Belinda Bencic upset No. 1 Naomi Osaka at the US Open
  • Bencic had never been past the third round at Flushing Meadows
  • Serena Williams looks fresh and rested for the home stretch of the tournament

Belinda Bencic pulled one of the big upsets of the 2019 US Open when she knocked out No. 1 seed Naomi Osaka. That begs the question as to whether Bencic just had a nice match or whether she’s good enough to win it all. Bencic has average US Open odds of +700 after entering at about +3800. Is there still value with her to win the tournament?

 2019 US Open Odds

Player Odds
Serena Williams +120
Bianca Andreescu +325
Elina Svitolina +550
Belinda Bencic +700
Johanna Konta +1200
Donna Vekic +1600
Elise Mertens +1600
Qiang Wang +3300

*Odds taken 09/03/19  prior to quarterfinals

Bencic Surprises Osaka

No. 1 seed Naomi Osaka was viewed as one of the best bets to win the tournament. Not only did she win it last season, she had a 17-match winning streak on hard courts. Osaka had lost just one set before their meeting before losing two straight to Bencic.

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Bencic is the No. 13 seed at the tournament, so this wasn’t a massive upset. However, she hadn’t really impressed prior to the win as she needed three sets to beat unseeded Alize Cornet in the second round and didn’t even have to face a third-round opponent as Anna Kontaveit pulled out.

Bencic Is No Slouch

Although Bencic might not be a household name just yet, she’s a very good player that’s had a strong season. She has one title under her belt – the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships – and she’s 38-16 on the season. That’s a healthy record.

The challenge with Bencic is that this is unchartered territory for her. She’s never been past the fourth round at any grand slam and she’s never been past the third round at the US Open (prior to this year). Of course, a lot of her competitors like Elise Mertens and Bianca Andreescu haven’t been this far either.

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That being thee case, this side of the of the bracket is a complete coin flip. It’s hard to predict who’ll come out of it.

Williams Looks Focused

I like Serena Williams to finish the job at the US Open. She’s been very close in grand slams recently, losing in the finals in three of the last five. She’s looked on point throughout this tournament as she’s fresh off a straight-sets win over No. 22 Petra Martic. She’s only dropped one set to date, which came to youngster Caty McNally.

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Williams also has a manageable path to the finals. She’ll face No. 18 Wang Qiang in the quarters, then face the winner of No. 5 Elina Svitolina and No. 16 Johanna Konta. Williams is 4-1 lifetime against Svitolina while she’s 1-1 against Konta. However, Konta is so-so on hard courts. She was 13-13 on them last year and lost in the third round at the Australian Open.

I think Williams should have an edge here as she hasn’t played a ton of tennis of late and she should be well-rested for the home stretch. On top of that, she has more experience than anyone that’s left. My money is on her to seal the deal at the US Open.

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