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Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini Odds & Prediction – Madrid Open Semifinals

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

May 7, 2021 · 7:38 PM PDT

Casper Ruud hitting a forehand return during a tennis match.
Casper Ruud of Norway returns the ball to Andrey Rublev of Russia during their semifinal match of the Monte Carlo Tennis Masters tournament in Monaco, Saturday, April 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias)
  • Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini will face each other in the semifinal of the Madrid Open on Saturday
  • This will be the fourth meeting between the two players
  • Continue below for the odds and our best bet analysis for this semifinal match

Unseeded Casper Ruud will take on eighth seed Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals of the Madrid Open on Saturday, May 8th. The two players are set to take the court at 3:00 PM ET.

Ruud enters the match as the favorite as he’s having a career best showing on clay this year. He also holds a edge with 2-1 head-to-head record against Berrettini.

Take a look below to see how both players have done in the tournament so far, and what we might be able to expect from this match.

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini Madrid Open Semifinal Odds

Player Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
Casper Ruud -1.5 (-121) -155 Ov 23.5 (+104)
[8] Matteo Berrettini +1.5 (-104) +125 Un 23.5 (-129)

Odds as of May 7th

Ruud Continues to Dominate on Clay

Despite an injury earlier in the year, Ruud has been absolutely dominate this clay court season, with three consecutive semifinal appearances, and has yet to drop a set here in Madrid. He defeated Alexander Bublik 7-5, 6-1 to earn a spot in his second Masters 1000 semifinals.

In his quarterfinal match, Ruud managed five aces, and landed 72 percent of his first serves. On top of that he managed a 77 win percentage when landing that first serve, and followed it up with a 79 win percentage on his second.

Ruud has had an impressive run here in Madrid beating the likes of Felix Auger Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas, but this will be another tough match as he goes up against Berrettini.

Berrettini’s Comeback Win

After losing the first set, the 25-year old Italian came back to win his quarterfinal match 5-7, 6-3, 6-0. With the win against Cristian Garin, Berrettini improves his record to 15-3 on the season, and has extended his win streak to seven in a row.

In the quarterfinal match that lasted two hours and six minutes, Berrettini fired off 33 winners in comparison to his opponent’s 18, and managed only 21 unforced errors. Garin recorded 30.

After losing the first set, Berrettini looked to be in trouble when he went down 3-1 in the second. But he managed to even it out to 3-3, and then it was basically match over, winning the next nine games in a row to seal the victory.

The Italian will now play in his second Masters 1000 semifinal and his first since 2019.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

These two have played each other a total of three times, with Ruud holding the 2-1 head-to-head edge, with his two wins coming on clay. Their last meeting came in 2020 in the quarterfinals of the ATP Masters 1000 Rome where Ruud won 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(5).

Ruud vs Berrettini Head-to-Head Stats


22 ATP Ranking 10
22 Age 25
1 Career Titles 4
74/58 Career W/L 83/54
0 YTD Titles 1
12/5 YTD W/L 12/3
2 Head-to-Head Wins 1

Despite being the higher ranked player at No. 10, Berrettini is not the favorite heading into the match, and that’s kind of expected. Ruud has been playing exceptional on clay, recording a 26-6 record on the surface since tennis came back last year.

Once again, the serve of both players will be a big part of this match. Ruud has been unstoppable this tournament, the 22-year old has yet to be broken, and has only face one breakpoint all well.

But because both players are playing so well this week, it will most likely be a tight match, and don’t be surprised if Berrettini takes a set. But I don’t see why Ruud wouldn’t make the finals here.

The Pick: Ruud (-155); 2-1 (+310)

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