Defending Champion Novak Djokovic Favored at +130 Odds to Win 2020 Australian Open

• Novak Djokovic is the defending champion at the Australian Open
• Djokovic has won six of the last nine Australian Opens
• No player won more hard court matches in 2019 than Daniil Medvedev, so there could be value with him at this event

After winning the ATP Cup Finals and beating Rafael Nadal in the process, Novak Djokovic looks primed for a good run at the 2020 Australian Open. He’s the clear-cut favorite as he’s now at +130 to win the event. He had average Australian Open odds of +163 back in November, so his odds have shortened a bit. Is he a good bet or is there value elsewhere?

2020 Australian Open Odds

Odds taken Jan 13.  

Djokovic the Player to Beat

It’s a common topic of conversation at tennis grand slams these days. As long as we’re not at the French Open and playing on clay, the question is who’ll beat Novak Djokovic? There’s no question that if Djokovic is healthy and is at the top of his game, he’s the player to beat. It’s been that way for at least two years now.

Taking into account current form, Djokovic has looked good of late. He beat Rafael Nadal at the ATP Cup Finals as well as Daniil Medvedev, which may or may not mean a lot. At smaller events, you never really know how motivated everyone is and Nadal openly talked about fatigue and scheduling being a factor.

Djokovic has done fairly well at Australian Opens as he’s won more grand slams Down Under than anywhere else. In 15 appearances, he’s won seven of them, winning six of the last nine. He did have a pair of surprise exits in the second and fourth rounds in 2017 and 2018, but Djokovic has won four of the last six grand slams overall.

Keep in mind that one of those losses was in the 2019 US Open when a shoulder injury really hampered him and the other was in the semis at the 2019 French Open, which is his weakest surface. Nobody will beat him at the Aussie Open is he’s in form and only a handful of players can knock him out even if he’s at 90%.

Where is There Value?

If I wasn’t betting on Djokovic, I’d only consider a couple of other players: Nadal and Medvedev. Medvedev actually pushed Djokovic to three sets in the ATP Cup Finals – one of the few matches where Djokovic even dropped a set. As for Nadal, he won the 2019 US Open and has been strong on the hard courts of late.

Medvedev won more matches on the hard courts than anyone else last season and many are expecting bigger and better things from the 23-year-old in 2020. While he lost to Djokovic in the 2019 Australian Open, he beat him in the other two meetings they had in the year. He’ll have a shot.

As for Nadal, he had an amazing run from the French Open through the end of the season. He won the French Open, lost in the semis at Wimbledon, then finished the year winning 25 of his final 27 matches – including the 2019 US Open. Nadal was mostly on fire during the hard-court part of the calendar.

Nadal has been to the finals in two of the last three years at the Aussie Open and the one miss was a loss in the quarters. While he’s now been to the final in four of the last eight Australian Opens, he’s only ever won this event once, which was back in 2009.

What’s the Best Bet?

At this point, my bet to win it all is Djokovic as I don’t see him falling short of the final – especially if Nadal and Medvedev are on the other side of the draw. If I had to go with a longer shot, it would be Medvedev as he’s been great on the hard courts over the last six months and looks to be a player on the rise.