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Dominic Thiem’s Wimbledon Odds Improve Following Strong Showing at French Open

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 3:54 PM PDT

Dominic Thiem
Dominic Thiem hasn't had much success at Wimbledon in his career. Photo by Gregg Gorman (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Dominic Thiem has been to the semis and beyond at Roland-Garros in four straight years
  • Thiem has never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon
  • Thiem has only been as far as the quarterfinals once at the other three majors (not including the French Open)

For a second consecutive year, 25-year-old Austrian Dominic Thiem made an impressive run at the French Open. He got to the final – this time dispatching no. 1 Novak Djokovic along the way – but again lost to Rafael Nadal. As the attention shifts to Wimbledon, is Thiem a good bet on grass? The Wimbledon odds for him to win are tantalizing at 34/1.

2019 Wimbledon Odds

Player 2019 Wimbledon Odds
Novak Djokovic +150
Roger Federer +350
Rafael Nadal +550
Alex Zverev +1200
Andy Murray +1600
Juan Martin Del Potro +1600
Marin Cilic +1600
Milos Raonic +1600
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2000

*Odds taken 06/11/19

Thiem Played Great at Roland-Garros

Thiem had an impressive run at Roland-Garros this year. He started off sluggishly, losing a set in each of his first three matches. Normally, that’s a bad sign. However, he cranked it up after that, defeating no. 14 Gael Monfils and no. 10 Karen Kachanov in straight sets, and then outlasted Djokovic in five sets over two days.

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Even his loss against Nadal was kind of impressive as he won a set off of him; he hadn’t won any of the previous 10 sets against him and only one other player at the 2019 French Open was able to win one. Of course, Thiem eventually lost, but there’s no shame in losing to the King of Clay at a place where he’s now 93-2.

Clay is Thiem’s Best Surface

What’s important to keep in mind is that Thiem is not a good all-around player in terms of surfaces. He’s definitely a clay court specialist and his record on other surfaces is not nearly as good. He was 17-5 on clay this year, 20-7 last year, 22-5 in 2017 and 25-7 in 2016. By comparison, he’s just 12-7 on grass in that same span.

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Taking a look at his record at majors, the same pattern plays out. He’s been to the semifinals or beyond at the French Open in four straight years. However, his best result at any other major is a quarterfinals appearance at the US Open last year.

Thiem lost in the first round at Wimbledon last year and has only once been past the second round.

That looks like an aberration though as he lost in the second round at the 2019 Australian Open and hasn’t been to any other quarterfinals of any other major ever. In terms of Wimbledon, he lost in the first round last year and has only once been past the second round. That tells you just about all you need to know.

What’s the Best Bet?

If you’re thinking about betting Thiem to win Wimbledon, forget about it. I don’t care what his odds are. Even at +3400, which would be a tantalizing payout, you’re looking at a player who has no history of playing well on grass and no history of doing anything of significance at Wimbledon.

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Last year, he entered Wimbledon as the no. 7 seed and lost in the first round to Marco Baghdatis without even winning a set. In 2017, he entered as the no. 8 seed and lost in the fourth round. In 2016, he entered as the no. 8 seed and lost in straight sets in the second round to unseeded Jiri Vesely.

There are sleepers and longshots that are worth a play at Wimbledon. Thiem isn’t one of them.

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