Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Holger Rune Odds & Prediction – Swiss Indoors Basel Final
- Félix Auger-Aliassime is on a 12-0 win streak this fall; Holger Rune is at 13-1
- The two young stars meet for the first time ever in the Basel final Sunday, Oct. 30
- Auger-Aliassime, three years older, is the favorite. We break down the matchup and make a prediction
Two players on great late-season rolls meet on Sunday in Basel in the Swiss Indoors final.
So when Félix Auger-Aliassime and Holger Rune play (about 10 a.m. ET – don’t forget that they wind the clocks back an hour overnight in Europe, a week ahead of North America), something’s got to give.
Auger-Aliassime vs Rune Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [3] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | -3.5 (+100) | -310 | O 22.5 (-125) |
| Holger Rune (DEN) | +3.5 (-130) | +230 | U 22.5 (-105) |
Odds as of Oct. 29 at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Basel Open.
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Auger-Aliassime is the favorite in the match. And the early odds are roughly equivalent to what they were when Auger-Aliassime played Alexander Bublik in the Basel quarterfinals on Friday.
Even though this one promises to be much more of a battle.
'I hope it's not gonna be me' 😉
One streak will come to an end when 9-0 @holgerrune2003 squares off with 12-0 Auger-Aliassime for the Basel title tomorrow!#SwissIndoorsBasel pic.twitter.com/Ynbbv4oEwS
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 29, 2022
Rune on a Run
Rune, 19, has been on a late-season run that will launch him into the top 20 in the ATP Tour rankings on Monday, regardless of the result Sunday.
Under .500 on the season (20-22) when he arrived in Sofia a month ago, he reached the final at the ATP 250 there and then went on to win in Stockholm last week, also an ATP 250 but with a stronger field than in Bulgaria.
And he has won four more matches in Basel. Altogether, a 13-1 record that has people talking.
In Basel, an ATP 500 event, he was unseeded but benefited from a pretty good draw, including lower-ranked Frenchmen Ugo Humbert and Arthur Rinderknech.
When he ran into No. 6 seed Roberto Bautista Agut Saturday in the semifinals, he faced a solid opponent who had 15 years experience on him.
Rune did get rattled at times. But when he was down 2-6 in the second-set tiebreak, and seemingly destined to go the distance, something kicked in.
The Dane stayed patient, waiting for opportunities to open the point. From 2-6 down, he won the tiebreak 8-6, and the match.
Bautista didn’t do a ton wrong; his fatal mistake likely was making his first serve in the two set points he had at the end of that tiebreak at 6-3, and 6-4.
Auger-Aliassime vs Rune Head-to-Head
| 22 (Aug. 8, 2000) | Age | 19 (April 29, 2003) |
| Montreal, Canada | Birthplace | Gentofte, Denmark |
| 6-4 | Height | 6-2 |
| 3 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 2 |
| No. 8 (Aug. 22, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 25 (Oct. 24, 2022) |
| No. 9 | Current Ranking | No. 25 |
| $8,116,659 | Career Prize Money | $1,722,256 |
| 52-24 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 33-23 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head Wins | 0 |
Auger-Aliassime on a Bigger Roll
For Auger-Aliassime, three years older at 22 and ranked 16 spots higher coming into Basel, the late-season run has been even more impressive.
He has a lot more at stake, in good position now for a spot in the upcoming ATP Tour finals.
The Canadian won ATP 250s in Florence and Antwerp the last two weeks.
And he’s serving like a dream that doesn’t seem to want to end.
Next up: Finals💪🏽
Looking to capitalize on this solid week 👊🏽🎾📸: Gabriel Monnet
🎥: @TennisTV | @atptour pic.twitter.com/OGcVequBAX— Félix AugerAliassime (@felixtennis) October 29, 2022
His 6-3, 6-2 beatdown of (a somewhat sub-par) Carlos Alcaraz Saturday was not a huge surprise.
Auger-Aliassime defeated him last month in Davis Cup. And on Saturday, didn’t give him much of any kind of opening.
Alcaraz didn’t have a single ace, and Auger-Aliassime won two-third of the points on second-serve returns.
A breakdown @felixtennis serving stats during career-best 12-match winning streak (going into #SwissIndoorsBasel F):
– Sets W-L: 24-3
– Service Games Won: 96% (120 of 125)
– Aces: 134 (11.2 avg)
– 1st Serve Pts Won: 83%
– 2nd Serve Pts Won: 60%
– Break Pts Saved: 71% (12 of 17)— ATP Media Info (@ATPMediaInfo) October 29, 2022
Big Servers Clash in Basel
Both Auger-Aliassime are big servers, even with the Canadian the bigger man.
In 41 service games this week, Rune has 27 aces and seven double faults. In 40 games, Auger-Aliassime has 46 aces and seven double faults.
Ultimately, it will come down to who returns better, and who defends their own second serve better.
Auger-Aliassime vs Rune Pick
Rune, statistically, has been better in both categories this season –in the mid-20s, where Auger-Aliassime has been just outside the top 40 on the ATP Tour.
But the Canadian is catching up quickly, with the uptick in performance in both those categories late in the season.
Where Rune will be able to score points is on his superior ability to take his backhand down the line, and take advantage of the Auger-Aliassime court position that focuses on his ability to take his forehand inside-out.
The Dane can break open points that way.
Of course, if he can’t really touch the ball on serve, he may not be able to get into those rallies.
Best Bet: Both Players to Win a Set (+155)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
