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Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek Odds & Prediction – WTA Miami Open Semifinals

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Mar 31, 2022 · 9:30 AM PDT

Iga Swiatek serving during a tennis match at the Miami Open.
Iga Swiatek of Poland serves the ball to Madison Brengle, during the Miami Open tennis tournament, Sunday, March 27, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)
  • The semifinals of the WTA Miami Open will take place today, Thursday, March 31st
  • Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek will compete in the second of two matches
  • Continue below for odds, preview, and best bet analysis

The second match of the day will be a semifinal battle between American Jessica Pegula and tournament favorite Iga Swiatek. With her quarterfinal win, Swiatek is one step closer to joining the rare Sunshine Double Club, as she won Indian Wells a few weeks back.

Both women have been playing exceptionally well in Miami, but Pegula has gotten a bit lucky in two matches as both her Round of 16 and quarterfinal opponent withdrew from the match fairly early on. Swiatek hasn’t had a walkover, and hasn’t dropped a set since March 15th.

Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek WTA Miami Open Semifinals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[16] Jessica Pegula +5.5 (-110) +430 Ov 19.5 (-130)
[2] Iga Swiatek -5.5 (-120) -650 Un 19.5 (-125)

Odds as of March 31st at FanDuel.

It’s no surprise here that Swiatek is the heavy favorite. The 20-year old has been on a roll the past couple of weeks, but could Pegula be the one to stop her?

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Pegula’s First Miami Open Semifinal

The 28-year old might be the first one to tell you that her route to the semifinals has been anything but normal. The American started off strong, defeated fellow countrywoman Sloane Stephens, and went head-to-head against Elena Rybakina. But since then she’s only played a total of 11 games in two matches.

Most recently her quarterfinal match ended at 4-1, when her opponent Paula Badosa had to withdraw due to a viral illness.

It’s not an ideal way to move on in a tournament, especially when your next opponent is Swiatek. But with the win, Pegula secured her second WTA 1000 semifinal, and continues her quest to her first WTA 1000 final.

Swiatek’s Winning Streak

The 20-year old is arguably the best WTA player on tour right now, as she just notched her 15th consecutive win when she defeated Petra Kvitova 6-3, 6-3, to book her spot in her already fifth semifinal of the year.

The young superstar entered the tournament on a hot streak and hasn’t cooled down. With back-to-back titles at the Qatar Open and Indian Wells, it would be normal for some fatigue to set in, resulting in a few miss plays or a bit sloppy at times. But that hasn’t happened.

The Pole has only lost 15 games in her four matches in Miami, and no opponent has been able to win more than three games in a set against her.

She is dialed in and as focused as they come.

She’ll take on Pegula as she searches for her third straight WTA 1000 final.

Second Meeting Between Pegula and Swiatek

Despite being the heavy favorite, it’s actually Pegula whohas the head-to-head edge with the 1-0 record. Their one and only meeting came back in 2019 where Swiatek won the first set, but Pegula managed to come back and take the win.

Now, a lot has changed for Swiatek in the past couple of years.

Jessica Pegula
Iga Swiatek
21 WTA Standing 2
28 Age 20
1 Career Titles 5
301/199 Career W/L 166/49
0 YTD Titles 2
7/6 YTD W/L 20/3
1 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Swiatek’s Match to Lose

One of the biggest factors that will be on Pegula’s side heading into this match, is she’s bound to be the more rested of the two. In this tournament, she’s barely spent any time on the court, and compared to the last couple of weeks, Swiatek has played quite a few more matches than the American.

But, is this really a time to bet against Swiatek? Probably not, as she’s playing the most dominant and exciting tennis of her career at the moment.

Pegula usually falls into a defensive mode while playing, rather than being extremely aggressive offensively. And that does work in her favor quite often, but Swiatek will definitely take advantage of that.

Now, when it comes to mindset, Pegula is aware she’s not the favorite. She really doesn’t have anything to lose, which could be in her favor in this match. Sometimes nerves and players’ own stressors cause them to make unnecessary mistakes.

But Swiatek’s form is second to none at the moment, and it would take a lot to even win a set against her. The Pole hasn’t even lost a set in weeks, and it doesn’t look like she’s going to start now.

Best Bet: Swiatek 2-0 (-180)

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