Mager vs Garin Odds and Pick: ATP Rio Open Finals

Christian Garin
Christian Garin is the favorite going into the final match of the Rio Open. He will be facing Italian Gianluca Mager. Photo by @RioOpenOficial (Twitter).
  • Gianluca Mager and Cristian Garin will face each other in the finals at the Rio Open this afternoon at 3:30pm ET
  • Both semifinal matches and the finals will be played in the same day due to rain Saturday night
  • Get the odds, analysis and our betting prediction below

After many delays and a couple suspended semifinal matches, the ATP Rio Open Final will be played this afternoon. Gianluca Mager and Cristian Garin will go head to head for the first time in their careers. Going into this tournament, Garin’s odds were +1000, just behind the favorite Dominic Thiem.

There shouldn’t be much of a surprise that he’s made it to the finals. Mager, on the other hand, managed to defeat Thiem in the quarterfinals to move on. Mager wasn’t even included in the top odds coming into the tournament, and has really had himself a breakthough week.

2020 ATP Rio Open Final Odds

Player Spread Money Line Total
Gianluca Mager +4.0 (-116) +286 U 21.5 (-116)
Cristian Garin -4.0 (-104) -341 O 21.5 (-104)

Odds Taken February 23.

Mager’s Road to the Finals

World No.128 Mager stunned the world when he beat Australian Open finalist, Dominic Thiem 7-6(4), 7-5 in their quarterfinal match. The qualifier Mager led 7-6(4), 2-1, when the rain caused their match to be suspended. When they picked up the game again, Mager’s momentum continued, and was able to book his ticket to his first ever semifinal spot in an ATP event.

Moving onto his semifinal match, the rain returned, and once again caused a suspension in his match. Over the course of two days, he finally defeated Attila Balazs 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(2). This win rewarded Mager with a trip to his first ever final in an ATP tournament.

Garin’s Road to the Finals

Third seed in the tournament, Cristian Garin earned his spot in the final by defeated Borna Coric 6-4, 7-5. When gameplay was suspended last night due to rain, Garin had already won the first set, and it was 4-4 in the second. When the game resumed early this afternoon, Garin wasted no time, needing just four games to finish off his opponent, doing it in one hour and 44 minutes. This final will be his fifth ATP Tour final, all of which he has reached in this past year.

When the match resumed today, Garin found himself facing a break point in the first game. He proved to be able to stay composed and calm, not allowing that break point to decide the match. At 5-6, Coric was able to save a match point when he hit a massive serve, and a big forehand. Garin was able to get to the ball in time, but actually missed his forehand shot, going wide. But again, despite that, he was able to remain calm, and won when Coric hit a ball into the net.

Best Bet

These two young players have yet to play either in their careers. The two measure up fairly equal against each other in terms of size and play, though Garin is currently ranked No. 25 and Mager is ranked No. 128.

What makes this match interesting is who Mager has had to beat in order to get to the finals. You could argue that the Italian’s road to the finals has been a bit harder than Garin’s. Garin didn’t face a seeded player until his semifinal match that was just played. Mager saw eighth seed, Casper Rudd in his first round after qualifiers. On top of that, Mager didn’t actually drop a set until his semifinal match, where Garin dropped his first set he played in the tournament.

On paper, it really looks like he doesn’t have a chance against Garin, but with the tournament Mager is having, it’ll be a fun match to watch. I would expect that it goes the distance.

Best Bet: Cristian Garin (-341)

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