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Marketa Vondrousova vs Ons Jabeur Odds & Prediction – Wimbledon Women’s Singles Final

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Tennis

Updated Jul 15, 2023 · 9:48 AM PDT

Ons Jabeur celebrates here semifinal win at Wimbledon.
Jul 12, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Ons Jabeur (TUN) celebrates winning her match against Elena Rybakina (KAZ) on day ten of Wimbledon at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • Ons Jabeur is a -205 moneyline favorite over Marketa Vondrousova in the Wimbledon Women’s Final on Saturday
  • Vondrousova is the first unseeded women’s finalist of the Open era
  • See the Vondrousova vs Jabeur odds, picks, predictions, and best bets below

Ons Jabeur’s spot in Women’s Final at Wimbledon isn’t a big surprise. Sure, she had to beat a pair of the top-three contenders in the Wimbledon odds, but this is a player that was ranked number two in the world at the end of last year. Marketa Vondrousova’s run to the Championship match however, is one no one saw coming. We have the Vondrousova vs Jabeur odds and our best bet here.

The unseeded Vondrousova pulled off four straight upset wins leading in to her semifinal match, before claiming victory as a favorite over fellow unseeded woman Elina Svitolina. Her fairytale run has her on the verge of history, but online sportsbooks are expecting it to come crashing to a halt in Saturday’s final.

Vondrousova vs Jabeur Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Marketa Vondrousova +170 +3.5 (-120) Over 21.5 (-125)
Ons Jabeur -205 -3.5 (+100) Under 21.5 (+100)

Jabeur is currently a -205 moneyline favorite, in a match with a projected total of 21.5 games. The action is set to get underway at 9:00 am ET from the All-England Club, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of July 14 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the ladies’ Wimbledon final before making your Vondrousova vs Jabeur picks.


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Ons Jabeur Betting Analysis

Jabeur was priced at +1500 to win the Wimbledon crown prior to the tournament starting. After knocking off three unseeded opponents to start, she’s been mowing down top-10 opponents this week.

Jabeur cruised past 9th seed Petra Kvitova in the Round of 16, and then proceeded to knock off Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, the second and third seed, in back-to-back matches.

In both the quarterfinal and semifinal she dropped the opening set, but roared back to take the next two in convincing fashion. This marks her third Grand Slam final in her last five majors, and her second straight at the All England Club. She fell last year to Rybakina in straight sets, but has been building towards her first Grand Slam title for quite some time.

Jabeur has improved upon her world ranking dramatically in each of the past three years, and a victory on Saturday would put her back among the women’s elite. Unlike her previous opponent Sabalenka, she won’t give the match away and will force Vondrousova to beat her. Jabeur had just 15 unforced errors in her semifinal three-setter, compared to 45 by Sabalenka.

Marketa Vondrousova Betting Analysis

Vondrousova has battled phases of inconsistent ground strokes during her Wimbledon run, but in each match she’s found a way to turn the tide. After a pair of three-setters against fourth seed Jessica Pegula and 32nd seed Marie Bouzkova in the quarters and Round of 16, Vondrousova barely broke a sweat in the semis.

She dropped only six games to Svitolina on Center Court, ending the Ukrainian’s own Cinderella run. Vondrousova is the first unseeded women’s finalist at Wimbledon in the Open Era (since 1968), and the first since Billy Jean King back in 1963.

The 2020 Olympic silver medallist and 2019 French Open runner-up is not new to big stage tennis, but it’s been a while since she’s competed at such a high level. Injuries and inconsistent play has been to blame, but this is a woman who was the top ranked junior at one point, and one that has already dispatched three top-20 players at this tournament.

Vondrousova vs Jabeur Predictions

Vondrousova has started quickly in all but one of her matches at this year’s Wimbledon. She’s dropped only two sets, and her ability to play with both power and finesse will give anyone trouble, including Jabeur.

Vondrousova vs Jabeur Stats

Marketa Vondrousova
Ons Jabeur
42 WTA Ranking 6
1 WTA Titles 4
28-10 W-L (2023) 22-9
3-3 Head-to-Head Record 3-3

As good as the ladder has looked knocking off two of the top-three players in the world recently, she has been a slow starter and an inconsistent server. She’s boasted a first serve percentage north of 54% only once in her last five matches. Her opposition has failed to punish her second serve, but Vondrousova won’t follow suit.

Vondrousova has dominated in the return game at Wimbledon, and has made the most of her break point opportunities. She’s converted over 50% of those chances in the last four matches alone, which is exactly the type of efficiency we’re looking for when backing an underdog.

Vondrousova vs Jabeur Picks: Marketa Vondrousova +3.5 Games (-120)

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