Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Azarenka Odds & Betting Preview: US Open Women’s Singles Final
- Naomi Osaka is seeking her second US Open women’s singles title in three years
- Victoria Azarenka, in her (lucky?) 13th US Open appearance and third final, is seeking her first
- A slight favorite against Serena Williams in the semis, Azarenka is a slight underdog here. Read on to see if she’s worth the risk
Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka were supposed to meet two weeks ago in the final of the Western & Southern Open final also held in the US Open bubble.
Dealing with a left hamstring injury, Osaka preferred to be cautious with the big event looming. So she gave Azarenka the walkover – and the title.
On Saturday, they finally meet.
Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Azarenka Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naomi Osaka (JPN) | -2.5 (-114) | -177 | O 21.5 (-109) |
| Victoria Azarenka (BLR) | +2.5 (-106) | +148 | U 21.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Sept. 11
Osaka’s Injury Management
Osaka’s decision to skip the Western & Southern Open was a wise move, as it gave her a few extra days to treat the injury. Her movement has rarely appeared hampered through the last two weeks. She has, however, mostly skipped practicing on the days between matches to save the leg.
She came through a hard-hitting, top-quality three-set win over Grand Slam semifinals rookie Jennifer Brady Thursday in good shape.
Despite their nearly eight-year age difference, Osaka and Azarenka have much in common.
The reason both made it here is because they have matured – in Osaka’s case, at a much younger age.
She is fitter, more experienced and better prepared than when she burst on the scene and won the US Open title in 2018 over Williams.
Osaka’s Grand Slam experience is still relatively limited. But every time she’s gotten past the fourth round at a major – she’s won.
2018 🤝 2020
Naomi Osaka in the #USOpen final pic.twitter.com/963HzYPfSx— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 11, 2020
Azarenka’s Great Escape
It appeared Azarenka’s renaissance run would end Friday night when Serena Williams blew her off the court in the first set of their semifinal match.
But she righted the ship; it was Williams who flinched.
Azarenka so chill during that MTO that a bug crawled across her nose and she didn't even flinch. pic.twitter.com/XLFMb5Dca5
— Stephanie Myles (@OpenCourt) September 11, 2020
Most importantly for the final, Azarenka got lots of practice timing and returned a powerful first serve. She’ll see plenty of those on Saturday.
Pouncing on a Weakness
Osaka’s second serve remains her most exploitable weakness.
And yet, she was broken only five times in her first six matches. She saved 76 percent of the break points she faced (16/21).
Azarenka has been successful with weak second serves during her career. During this US Open, she has broken her opponents’ serve 31 times in 63 opportunities – a 49 percent clip.
Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Azarenka Head to Head
| 22 (Oct. 15, 1997) | Age | 31 (July 30, 1989) |
| Osaka, Japan | Birthplace | Minsk, Belarus |
| 5-11 | Height | 6-0 |
| 5 | WTA Singles Titles | 21 |
| 2 | Grand Slam Singles Titles | 2 |
| No. 9 | Current Ranking | No. 27 |
| No. 1 (Jan. 27, 2019) | Career High Ranking | No. 1 (Jan. 29, 2012) |
| $14,770,234 | Career Prize Money | $30,650,035 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head | 1 |
The battle will come down to that second serve.
Azarenka’s winning percentage on her opponents’ second serve in the tournament stands at 69 percent.
Even against Williams, who has one of the best second deliveries in the business, it was 63 percent.
Through her first six matches, Osaka won 54 percent of her second serves, a number that said as much about her opponents’ inability to capitalize than about the quality of her serve.
Both trends cannot co-exist in this final.
The winner likely will be the one whose success rate is closest to their history during this US Open.
Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Azarenka – Previous Meetings
| Year | Tournament | Round | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Cincinnati/New York | F | WALKOVER* | Azarenka* |
| 2019 | Roland Garros | R64 | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 | Osaka |
| 2018 | Rome | R64 | 6-0, 6-3 | Osaka |
| 2016 | Australian Open | R32 | 6-1, 6-1 | Azarenka |
The last completed meeting between the two came a little over a year ago, on the red clay in Paris. Even in defeat, it was among the finest matches Azarenka played during the ups and downs she experienced after returning to the Tour in the summer of 2017.
She’s a different player now. So is Osaka. But both are on their surface of choice now. And it’s a final.
"It's been 7 years? That's my favorite number so, I guess that's meant to be."
😅@vika7 I #USOpen pic.twitter.com/g2Jqyc0ujb
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 11, 2020
Azarenka didn’t come all this way to lose now.
But in many ways, it felt like the match against Williams was the final.
It took a fair bit out of her both physically and emotionally to defeat her rival in a Grand Slam for the first time in their long history.
The odds favor a close match. But it’s shaping up to be a long one.
There are some worthy offers out there to take advantage of either player winning in three sets. And it would be worth betting on Azarenka to win the first set at +132 odds. She will be hyper-focused on getting off to a flying start after the slow start against Williams nearly cost her the match.
Best bet: Osaka (-177)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
