Mets vs Cubs Predictions & Expert Picks for April 17

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The New York Mets (7-12, 4-6 away, 8-9-2 O/U) hit the road as underdogs to open a fresh series against the favored Chicago Cubs (9-9, 4-5 home, 11-6-1 O/U) this Friday, April 17, 2026, at 2:20 PM ET from the historic grass of Wrigley Field.

Chicago enters Game 1 with offensive momentum after edging out the Pittsburgh Pirates in a tight 7-6 victory, backed by clutch home runs from Dansby Swanson and Moisés Ballesteros. Conversely, New York is looking to bounce back after suffering a decisive 8-2 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

With Kodai Senga expected to take the mound for the Mets against Edward Cabrera for the Cubs, bettors have a fascinating pitching duel to dissect.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Odds

Friday’s MLB odds firmly position Chicago as the home favorite for this National League clash. The best Cubs’ moneyline is -140 at bet365, with the Mets priced as +123 underdogs at DraftKings. Removing the vig, these odds imply a 56.8% probability for a Cubs victory, compared to a 43.2% chance for New York at +122.

Bettors willing to look beyond traditional sportsbooks will find even better prices at prediction site Kalshi, where Chicago is trading at 58¢ (equal to -138 odds) and New York is trading at 43¢ (equal to +133 odds).

Prediction Markets

Moneyline

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Kalshi

Chicago Cubs

58%

New York Mets

43%

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Odds as of April 17 at Kalshi. Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

Taking a look at the line movement, the moneyline has seen notable action. The Cubs originally opened at -135, but consistent backing has pushed their price shorter. Bettors are evidently eager to fade New York’s road woes and Senga’s disastrous start to the season. (More on that below.)

Meanwhile, the total opened at 10.5 runs with balanced -110 odds, but the juice has shifted toward the Over at -115.

Starting Pitcher States: Senga vs Cabrera

Senga has a 7.07 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through his first 14.0 innings of the season. He is still missing bats, though, averaging 12.21 Ks per nine innings. His peripherals are solid, as well, indicating he’s had brutal luck early on. Senga boasts a 3.96 xERA, 3.81 FIP, and 3.43 xFIP.

Cabrera has been considerably better in terms of run prevention, sporting a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 16.2 IP. But he only has a 7.02 K/9 and a worse BB/9 than Senga (4.86 vs 4.50). His peripherals suggest regression is waiting in the wings: 3.76 xERA, 3.23 FIP, 4.38 xFIP.

There isn’t much history between either starter and the lineup he’ll face on Friday afternoon.

Cabrera vs Mets

Francisco Lindor is the only current Met who’s faced Cabrera more than four times. He’s just 3-for-18 with six walks, though one of the hits was a long ball. No other New York hitter have a homer off Cabrera. Luis Robert Jr has the only other extra-base hit (a double).

Senga vs Cubs

Senga hasn’t allowed a home run to any Cubs hitters in 24 plate appearances. Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson all have doubles in six or fewer PAs.

Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (58c/-138) at Kalshi

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Cubs Moneyline Pick

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Kalshi

Chicago C

58%

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When breaking down this National League showdown, the stark contrast in starting pitching points heavily toward the home side. Cabrera has been sensational across his early workload, sporting a pristine 1.62 ERA and completely stifling opposing lineups.

On the other side, Senga has endured a disastrous opening to his campaign. The right-hander carries an inflated 7.07 ERA and a staggering 1.71 WHIP across 14 innings, bleeding 10.93 hits per nine frames. His velocity is up from last season (96.7 vFA compared to ) but his groundball/flyball ratio is way down. In his first two full MLB seasons, he had a 1.23-to-1 GB-to-FB ratio. Early in 2026, it’s an ugly 0.76-to-1. The increased velocity has come at the expense of control, and batters are capitalizing by launching bombs.

At the plate, the Mets are suffering a severe power outage on the road, plating a full run less per game (3.40) than the Cubs manage at home (4.44). The absence of injured superstar Juan Soto has left a gaping hole in New York’s lineup, causing their team OPS to plummet to a concerning .628 away from Citi Field.

Looking at situational trends, New York is in a massive slump, winning only 20.0% of their last 10 games (2-8). They have also burned money as underdogs, managing a meager 25.0% win rate (1-3) in that role recently. Total bettors should note that the Over has hit in 80.0% of Chicago’s last 10 matchups.

NYM vs CHC Public-Betting Splits

Friday’s MLB public betting splits show that bettors are heavily backing the home favorites, with the Cubs commanding 73.9% of the moneyline tickets. More importantly, 75.1% of the overall financial stake is riding on Chicago to secure the outright victory.

The consensus is even more lopsided when looking at the runline market, where bettors are actively laying the -1.5 runs. An overwhelming 86.0% of the tickets and 78.1% of the cash are backing Chicago to cover the spread against a struggling New York squad.

The total market presents the most intriguing split of the afternoon. Currently, 67.7% of the tickets are backing the Over. However, the Under accounts for a disproportionate 43.6% of the money despite holding just 32.3% of the slips. While not a true 60/60 sharp-vs-public divide, larger individual wagers are quietly pushing back against the expectation of a massive shootout.

Mets vs Cubs Injury Reports

Injuries play a pivotal role in shaping my betting strategy for this Friday clash. The defining absence is unequivocally Soto. Without his elite on-base skills and slugging capabilities, the Mets lack the firepower necessary to overcome early deficits, which directly plays into Cabrera’s hands.

While New York is missing its best bat, Chicago is dealing with a pitching depth crisis. Nine of their 10 active injuries are to pitchers, including key rotation pieces like Justin Steele and Matthew Boyd. Because their bullpen is severely taxed, manager Craig Counsell will rely heavily on Cabrera pitching deep.

New York’s pitching staff is also nursing significant wounds. With A.J. Minter sidelined, they are missing vital late-inning stabilizers. If Senga is chased from the mound prematurely, the Mets will be forced to turn to a depleted middle-relief corps, compounding the value of targeting Chicago’s offensive props.