Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Paris Masters Final
- The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will meet in the Paris Masters singles final, Sunday at 9 am ET
- Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev is a rematch of the 2021 US Open final
- Djokovic is a very slight favorite, but probably not in the better form; We break it down
After seven weeks off after the US Open, Novak Djokovic returned at the Paris Masters with one goal in mind.
Reach the final, and the Serbian star would clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking for the seventh time in his career.
For two decades, Pete Sampras – Djokovic’s childhood hero – had held that record, with six year-end No. 1s.
Mission accomplished. Now, Djokovic has to, as he put it Saturday, “turn the page” and go after another Masters 1000 title.
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -1.5 (+205) | -105 | O 23.5 (+100) |
| [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +1.5 (-285) | -115 | U 23.5 (-125) |
Odds as of Nov. 6 at DraftKings
Nervy Paris Moments for Djokovic vs Hurkacz
With a first-round bye and a walkover against Gaël Monfils, Djokovic had just two matches in his legs when he faced No. 7 seed Hubert Hurkacz in Saturday’s Paris semifinal.
Generally, he looked good. Except for two nervous stretches that well could have cost him the match.
At the end of the first set, Djokovic was quickly broken seemingly out of nowhere. And just as suddenly, Hurkacz served out the first set.
How does history feel, @DjokerNole?#RolexParisMasters pic.twitter.com/9kiwwfUASF
— ROLEX PARIS MASTERS (@RolexPMasters) November 6, 2021
Djokovic then got going.
He dropped a bagel on Hurkacz and ran out to a 4-2 lead in the third set. And then, suddenly, another nervy moment. Suddenly it was even again.
And Djokovic needed to play a very good deciding tiebreak to close out Hurkacz, and seal the year-end No. 1.
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head
| 34 (May 22, 1987) | Age | 25 (Feb. 11, 1996) |
| Belgrade, Serbia | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-6 |
| 85 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 13 |
| No. 1 (July 4, 2011) | Career High Ranking | No. 2 (March 15, 2021) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $153,120,635 | Career Prize Money | $419,885,705 |
| 48-6 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 54-11 |
| 5 | Career Head to Head | 4 |
Medvedev Far too Good for Zverev in Paris
If the closeness of the Djokovic-Hurkacz match was a surprise, the way Medvedev dismissed world No. 4 Alexander Zverev was arguably an even bigger shocker.
Zverev led their head-to-head 5-4, even though Medvedev had won their last three encounters including last year’s Paris final.
But the German, who looked solid in beating Casper Ruud in straight sets the previous day, had absolutely no answers on Saturday in the semifinals.
From Paris with Love 🥰@DjokerNole @DaniilMedwed pic.twitter.com/yHU4SDhHs8
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 6, 2021
Even if the match took an hour and 20 minutes, Medvedev won it going away: 6-2, 6-2.
Zverev couldn’t make a dent either on the return (just 36 per cent of second-serve return points won, 0-for-3 on break chances) or on his own serve (broken four times in five opportunities).
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | US Open (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 | Medvedev |
| 2021 | Australian Open (F) | Outdoor Hard | 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | ATP Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-3 | Medvedev |
| 2020 | ATP Cup (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 5-7, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Cincinnati (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 | Medvedev |
| 2019 | Monte Carlo (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2019 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-3 | Djokovic |
| 2017 | Eastbourne (SF) | Grass | 6-4, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2017 | Davis Cup (1R) | Indoor Hard | 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, 1-0 retd | Djokovic |
Rematch of the Historic US Open Final
Djokovic was going for history in the US Open final in September. He’d won the first three Grand Slam titles of the season, and was going for the very rare calendar Slam.
Was he tight? Tighter than tight. And Medvedev, who had offered Djokovic little resistance in the Australian Open final back in February, was determined not to have history repeat itself.
The result was a crushing disappointment for Djokovic.
Medvedev is now a Grand Slam champion. And having that accomplishment off his to-do list can only make him even better.
The tall Russian has been playing better than Djokovic this week. Other than a few brain freezes against the tricky lefty Hugo Gaston (and the partisan crowd), he has played champion’s tennis.
Djokovic has now accomplished job No. 1 in Paris. No doubt he’s still hungry to win his sixth Paris Masters title. But it’s also possible the edge has been taken off a little – especially after using up so much physical and mental energy in defeating Hurkacz on Saturday.
You would expect Medvedev to come out on fire. And while it’s likely Djokovic will respond and take it the distance, it feels like Medvedev’s match – and title – to win.
Best Bet: Medvedev in three sets (+350)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
