Blue Jays vs Rays Predictions, Picks & Best Bets (May 6)

Tampa Bay rallied for a 4-3 win over Toronto on Tuesday night. Today, the Rays will try to complete the 3-game sweep at Tropicana Field. First pitch is set for 1:10 pm, ET. You can watch on MLB.TV, which is part of each Fubo TV package.

Rays ace Shane McClanahan (3-2, 3.10 ERA) will go against Toronto lefty Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.65).

The Rays (23-12) have won 5 in a row and are the betting favorite today against the Blue Jays (16-20).

Yesterday, we recommended taking the Rays on the moneyline and the Under. We hit on both. Today, we’ll examine the pitching matchup, key stats and metrics, and deliver the best bets for Blue Jays at Rays on getaway day.

Blue Jays vs Rays Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds and is subject to change

The current moneyline prices Tampa Bay as consensus -139 home favorites, leaving Toronto as +117 road underdogs. Removing the sportsbook vig, this implies a 55.79% probability for a Rays victory and a 44.21% probability for the Blue Jays. Bettors looking to back the home team on the runline must take -1.5 at +160, while the road club gets a 1.5-run cushion at a steep -193.

The opening runline was set at 1.5 with the home side at +155 and the visitors at -188. Vig adjustments have since pushed the favorite to +160. The total opened at 7.5 (Over -115 / Under -105). While the baseline 7.5 number remains static, the Over has ticked up to -117 and the Under moved to -103, reflecting public sentiment leaning toward a higher-scoring affair.

Rays vs. Blue Jays Predictions & Best Bets

Best Bet: Rays To Win (YES, $0.57 per contract/-133 at Kalshi)

The Rays keep finding ways to win. It happened again Tuesday night, when the Rays erased a 2-0 deficit and 3-2 deficit to win their fifth straight game.

Today, with a quick turnaround, it’s advantage Rays with ace Shane McClanahan on the mound.

McClanahan is averaging 9.31 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.10 ERA. Patrick Corbin (3.65 ERA) has been solid, but the Rays’ bullpen depth and situational base-running advantages provide a clear edge.

We are projecting a straight moneyline win for the Rays.

Prediction site Kalshi offers moneyline contracts for both teams. Each Rays to win contract is trading for $0.57 per, which equates to -133 odds. That makes Kalshi’s contract a slightly better value than the best odds available at a traditional sportsbook.

If you live in a Kalshi region, click “Predict” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.

Prediction Markets

Rays vs Blue Jays

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Tampa Bay

57%

Toronto

44%

Predict

Pick #2: Under 8.0 Runs (-120 at BetMGM): Taking the Under also aligns with the pitching data. Both starters maintain sub-4.00 ERAs, and McClanahan’s swing-and-miss profile should disrupt Toronto’s offensive timing early in the game. Furthermore, the Under has cashed in 90.0% of Tampa Bay’s last 10 contests.

Further, each of the first two games were below this total.

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Blue Jays vs Rays Props to Target

Yandy Díaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+116 on DraftKings): Díaz is slashing .320 with an .886 OPS, adding five home runs and 22 RBIs. Backing the first baseman to record two bases at plus money offers strong expected value given his contact rates at home and ability to utilize the whole field.

Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (+126 on DraftKings): Generating 9.31 K/9, the left-hander possesses the pure stuff to efficiently retire opposing hitters. At +126, this line misprices his strikeout ceiling against an injury-battered lineup.

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Blue Jays vs Rays Situational Betting Trends

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Record as Favorite: 13-3 (.812 win percentage) overall this season; a perfect 6-0 (1.000) over their last 10 games.
• Recent Form: 9-1 (.900) straight up over their last 10 games.
• Over/Under Trends: The Over has cashed in just 37.1% of their overall games. Recently, the Under has hit at a dominant 90.0% rate across their last 10 contests.

Toronto Blue Jays:

• Record as Underdog: 4-10 (.286 win percentage) overall this season; 1-3 (.250) over their last 10 games.
• Over/Under Trends: The Over has hit in just 30.0% of their last 10 games.

Shane McClanahan vs Patrick Corbin 2026 Stats

Patrick Corbin vs Rays

Rays Hitters vs Patrick Corbin

Shane McClanahan vs Blue Jays

Blue Jays Hitters vs Shane McClanahan

Rays vs Blue Jays Home/Road Statistics Comparison

The table below highlights performance splits at Tropicana Field and on the road.

Public Betting Splits

Let’s dive into MLB public betting trends for today’s getaway game at the Trop.

Moneyline Market

Bettors align with the home favorites. The Rays command 68.1% of tickets and 66.7% of the total money wagered. The public and higher-stakes players agree on the straight victory, mirroring our official moneyline prediction.

Total Market

The total displays heavy one-sided action, with 83.4% of tickets and 74.2% of the handle backing the Over. This sharply contrasts with our Under 7.5 recommendation. Fading heavy public percentages requires statistical backing, and the low-ERA pitching matchup combined with strong recent Under trends for both clubs supports the contrarian angle.

Runline Market

The runline presents a notable ticket-to-money discrepancy. While 78.4% of tickets back the home team to cover -1.5, they hold only 54.2% of the handle. This means Toronto (+1.5) has drawn 45.8% of the money on just 21.6% of the tickets. While it narrowly misses the 60% threshold for a definitive sharp-versus-public divide, the larger average bet size clearly sits on the road underdogs to keep the margin within one run.