Best Bets, Picks & Betting Splits for Cubs vs Mets on June 23

• Last night’s game was postponed
• The Cubs swept a home series against the Mets in April
• Continue reading for my Cubs vs Mets best bets and picks

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The New York Mets (34-43) host the Chicago Cubs (40-37) at Citi Field on June 23, 2026, at 7:10 PM ET. The Mets will host this series after the Cubs took all three games in a series in April.

The Mets enter after dropping a series to the Phillies, losing the final two games by a combined score of 21-5. The Cubs lost the final game of their series with the Blue Jays, but they clubbed them 8-6 and 16-2 over the first two games.

When the season opened, both the Cubs and Mets were expected to be playoff contenders. However, three months have not been kind to either side. The Cubs still sit as odds-on favorites in NL playoff odds (-110 odds), but the Mets have plummeted to south of 6-to-1 to make the postseason.

I am closely monitoring how Chicago’s pitching handles a lineup featuring Juan Soto. Whether you prefer backing the home favorites or taking the value on the road underdogs, my analysis breaks down the starting matchups, offensive trends, and betting splits to identify the best edges.

Cubs vs Mets Picks & Predictions

When evaluating this matchup, the starting pitching points toward a high-scoring environment. Edward Cabrera takes the mound for Chicago with a 5.21 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. While he allows traffic on the basepaths, New York’s starter has struggled even more. Kodai Senga enters with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP over 24.0 innings. Given the lack of command from both arms, my top play on the total is Over 8.5 Runs (-105, FanDuel).

Chicago holds a definitive offensive advantage in this matchup. The Cubs boast a .244 team batting average and a .738 OPS, outperforming the Mets’ .232 average and .669 OPS. With Senga walking 6.37 batters per nine innings, Chicago should generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Therefore, I am taking the Cubs Moneyline (-106, FanDuel) as my primary side.

In the player prop market, Chicago’s Seiya Suzuki provides a highly actionable edge. Suzuki is a reliable run producer away from home, exceeding 0.5 RBIs in five of his last six road games. This represents an 83.0% hit rate, averaging 1.5 RBIs per contest in that span. I recommend backing Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 RBIs (+190, DraftKings).

Another strong prop consideration is Ian Happ Over 0.5 Hits (-165, FanDuel). Happ has eclipsed the 0.5 hits mark in four straight games, giving him a 100.0% recent cover rate. His .375 on-base percentage in eight career plate appearances against Senga suggests he will extend that streak tonight.

Pitching & Offensive Matchups

Edward Cabrera vs Kodai Senga

Neither pitcher has established sustained dominance this season. Cabrera sports a 4-4 record, and while his 5.15 FIP aligns with his actual results, he allows too much hard contact. Over his last 10 appearances (50.2 innings), Cabrera’s ERA has climbed to 6.39 with a 1.48 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .292 against him during that stretch.

Senga has endured a difficult 2026 campaign. Despite a strong 10.50 K/9 rate, his command is lacking. He walks 6.37 batters per nine innings and surrenders a .292 opponent batting average. Averaging just 4.00 innings per start, Senga consistently forces the New York bullpen into heavy workloads early in games.

Batter vs Pitcher History

Chicago’s lineup has limited exposure to Senga, but key hitters have capitalized. Moisés Ballesteros has a home run and three RBIs in two plate appearances. Suzuki is 2-for-4 with two RBIs. Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner each share a .286 batting average and .375 on-base percentage against the right-hander over eight plate appearances.

Soto has reached base four times in six plate appearances against Cabrera, including a home run and two walks. Mark Vientos also hits Cabrera well, posting a .429 average and four RBIs in seven at-bats.

Team Stats Comparison

Note: Offensive statistics reflect Chicago’s road performance and New York’s home performance.

The statistical breakdown highlights several mismatches favoring the visiting Cubs. Despite both teams holding a .237 batting average in their respective splits, Chicago ranks 9th in the majors with 4.70 road runs per game. The Mets rank 17th with just 4.39 runs per game at home.

Chicago’s .714 road OPS indicates an ability to hit for extra bases, while the Mets struggle to sustain rallies with a 26th-ranked .685 home OPS. New York holds a slight edge in average exit velocity, suggesting they make hard contact but struggle with launch angles. Furthermore, Chicago’s 0.78 stolen bases per game outpaces New York’s station-to-station offense (0.50).

Cubs vs Mets Odds & Betting Trends

The Mets opened as -145 home favorites, but sharp action pushed the line down to -110. The game total bumped from 7.5 to 8 runs before ending up at 8.5 (with the juice on the under: -115 odds), reflecting confidence in a high-scoring affair.

The moneyline market presents a clear sharp-versus-public divide in MLB public betting splits. The public is backing the home favorite, with New York commanding 68.4% of the betting tickets. However, the Mets have attracted just 5.1% of the overall financial handle. The Cubs have drawn an overwhelming 94.9% of the money on only 31.6% of the tickets, indicating professional bettors are targeting Chicago.

Bettors are aligned on the total, with the Over hauling in 82.9% of the tickets and 86.8% of the money.

Odds as of June 23, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET from FanDuel

Relevant Betting Trends:

• The Cubs are 5-3 (62.5%) as favorites over their last 10 games.
• The Mets have won 66.7% of their games as favorites (4-2) over their last 10 contests.
• New York is 7-17 (29.2%) as an underdog this season.
• The Under has cashed in just 20.0% of New York’s last 10 matchups.

Cubs vs Mets Injury Report

The Mets are severely hindered by injuries to core position players. The absence of Lindor strips the team of its premier defensive shortstop and a crucial run producer. The long-term loss of Robert further limits their power upside. These absences align with New York’s bottom-tier .685 home OPS.

For Chicago, the injury bug affects the starting rotation. Key arms like Steele and Taillon remain sidelined. Of immediate concern is Cabrera, who missed his previous start with a hand cramp. Any lingering effects could exacerbate his walk rate and expose a depleted Chicago bullpen early in the game.