Blue Jays vs Rays Predictions & Best Bets (May 5)

• The Rays are 12-3 when favored this season
• The Under has cashed in 90.0% of the Rays’ last 10 matchups
• See our best bets for Blue Jays at Rays on Tuesday night

Tampa Bay opened its 3-game series against Toronto with a 5-1 victory Monday. It was the Rays’ fifth consecutive victory, the Blue Jays’ second consecutive loss.

Tampa Bay will try to extend both streaks when they meet again tonight at Tropicana Field. First pitch is set for 6:40 pm, ET. MLB.TV, which is included in each Fubo TV package, will provide national coverage.

There won’t be any secrets tonight, as both pitchers have extensive histories against the other side.

Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmusen (2-1, 2.64 ERA) goes against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.10).

The Rays are slight home favorites.

Let’s break down what matters most and provide our best bets for game 2 of Blue Jays at Rays on Tuesday night.

Blue Jays vs Rays Odds

The graphic above displays the best available odds and is subject to change

The betting market accurately prices Tampa Bay as clear home favorites given their 22-12 record and the pitching matchup. The low total of 7.5 reflects the presence of two sub-1.00 WHIP starters in Gausman and Rasmussen.

Rays vs Blue Jays Predictions & Best Bets

Moneyline Pick: Rays to Win (YES, $0.55 per/-122 at Kalshi)

Beyond its current winning streak, Tampa Bay holds a distinct edge on the mound with Drew Rasmussen. The right-hander has been highly effective this season, recording a 2.64 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP across 30.2 innings. Opponents are batting just .181 against him. While Toronto counters with a reliable veteran in Kevin Gausman (3.10 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), Tampa Bay’s offense has been superior at reaching base (.326 team OBP compared to Toronto’s .314 OBP). Furthermore, the Rays are an exceptional 12-3 (80.0%) as moneyline favorites this season. Their ability to manufacture runs via contact and speed at Tropicana Field makes them the analytical choice on the moneyline.

Prediction site Kalshi has moneyline contracts available for each team. We’re backing the Rays to win contract, which is trading for $0.55 per. That’s equal to -122 odds, which makes it more valuable than the best odds at a traditional sportsbook.

If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.

Prediction Markets

Rays vs Blue Jays ML

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Tampa Bay

55%

Toronto

46%

Predict

Over/Under Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-131 at DraftKings): With Rasmussen and Gausman starting, baserunners will be scarce. Both pitchers maintain WHIPs below 1.00. Gausman limits opposing batters to a .204 average, while Rasmussen holds hitters to a .181 mark. Neither lineup possesses overwhelming isolated power; the Rays average a .378 slugging percentage, and the Blue Jays sit at .386. Historically, the Under has cashed in 90.0% of Tampa Bay’s last 10 matchups. Expect a low-event game that stays under the projected run total.

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Best Player Prop Bet: Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-122 at theScore): Rasmussen averages 9.39 strikeouts per nine innings. Given his command and the Blue Jays’ missing core bats, clearing the 4.5 strikeout threshold presents measurable value. The -122 consensus odds accurately reflect his swing-and-miss metrics.

Alternative Player Prop: Yandy Díaz Over 0.5 Total Hits (-231 at DraftKings): Díaz profiles as a reliable contact hitter for proposition bettors. He carries a .322 batting average and produces 1.219 hits per game. While the -231 line implies a high probability, his role as the primary catalyst in a station-to-station offense makes this a mathematically sound play.

Blue Jays vs Rays Team Betting Trends to Know

• Tampa Bay as Favorites: The Rays are 12-3 when favored this season.
• Tampa Bay Totals: The Under has cashed in 90.0% of the Rays’ last 10 matchups. Overall, their games have gone Over just 38.2% of the time this season.
• Toronto as Underdogs: The Blue Jays are 4-9 as moneyline underdog. This trend continues recently, with a 33.3% win rate (1-2) over their last 10 games when catching plus odds.
• Tampa Bay Recent Form: Over their last 10 games, the Rays are 9-1 straight up (90.0%), including a 6-0 record as favorites.

Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman 2026 Stats

Kevin Gausman vs Rays

Rays Hitters vs Kevin Gausman

Drew Rasmusen vs Blue Jays

Blue Jays Hitters vs Drew Rasmussen

Blue Jays Batters vs. Drew Rasmussen

Head-to-head statistics for individual Toronto batters against Drew Rasmussen are currently unavailable for this matchup.

Blue Jays vs Rays Home/Road Stats

The table below compares Tampa Bay’s home offensive production against Toronto’s road statistics.

Blue Jays vs Rays Public Betting Splits & Market Analysis

Let’s dive into MLB public betting trends for tonight’s game at the Trop.

Moneyline Market: Bettors are heavily backing the home favorites. The Rays draw 69.7% of the moneyline tickets and 75.2% of the total handle. The money percentage outpacing the ticket percentage suggests that larger wagers favor Tampa Bay to win outright, aligning with the analytical prediction.

Runline Market: Runline action is disproportionately skewed toward the home side. Currently, 88.2% of the tickets and 94.4% of the total money are on Tampa Bay to cover the spread. The market trusts the Rays’ pitching advantage to secure a multi-run victory.

Total Runs Market: Despite the strong starting pitching, 73.0% of the tickets and 69.3% of the money back the Over. If you wager on the Under, you are taking a contrarian stance. However, there has been a late 13.1% increase in wagers backing the Under, indicating early sharp resistance against the initial Over money. No strict “sharp vs. public” divergence (where tickets and money split 60% in opposite directions) exists across the primary markets.