Odds Favor a Serena Williams Slam Win in 2019, Shade Simona Halep

Serena Williams
Serena Williams is favored to win at least one Grand Slam tournament in 2019. Photo by Charles Thompson (flickr).
  • Odds are available for the number of Grand Slam tournaments each player will win
  • Serena Williams is favored to win at least one
  • Simona Halep’s favored to win zero

Serena Williams is in position to extend her 23 slam title record in 2019. How many she’ll win, however, is up for debate.

This is a fun bet, because it’s one of those props where the sportsbook is also offering odds on all the individual parts of the prop. We can break down the odds using the book’s own numbers, and see if they present value.

Serena Williams 2019 Grand Slam Odds

How Many Grand Slam Titles Will Serena Williams Win in 2019? Odds
None +110
Exactly 1 +140
Exactly 2 +500
Exactly 3 +2800
All 4 +25000

For reference, here’s Serena Williams’ odds at each individual slam.

Serena Williams 2019 Odds for Each Grand Slam Event

Tournament Serena Williams Odds
Australian Open +400
French Open +700
Wimbledon +350
US Open +350

For the history of her Australian open odds, go to our Australian Open odds page.

Taking those implied probabilities together, you get about a 58% chance that Serena wins at least one slam in 2019, so oddsmakers could be giving you a deal here. However, a bettor has to bullseye the exact number she wins, which makes things a little tougher. To calculate her probability that she wins exactly one, for example, you have to add up the probabilities that she wins each tournament and only that tournament. The formula for winning just the Australian Open, for example, is:

pAOonly=(pAOwin*pFOloss*pWCloss*pUSloss)

…and so on and so forth. When you do all that, you get her implied probability to win exactly one, which comes out to 46.8%, or +113.68 in American Odds. It’s slightly more complicated when you want exactly two wins (since you need to add up all seven ways to win exactly two tournaments) and a lot easier when you want three (only four ways to do that) and all four.

Sportsbooks are thus giving you a little value in this bet, shelling out +140 for something their odds estimate is worth about +110. Here’s a table with all their odds and implied probabilities:

Serena Williams Grand Slam Odds and Implied Probabilities

Serena’s Number of Slams Sportsbook Odds Cumulative Probability of All Slams
None +110 +138.1
Exactly 1 +140 +113.68
Exactly 2 +500 +598.81
Exactly 3 +2800 +4445.45
All 4 +25000 +83233.33

The only value they give is on Serena winning exactly one, but they do give good value there. If you want to bet all four, things get interesting, because you can go make those four bets individually. Since this bet is essentially a four-bet parlay you can’t otherwise make, it is something to think about.

Betting the four tournaments individually (with one unit each) will give you a 22 unit payout (and an 18 unit profit) if Williams wins all four.

Betting the four tournaments individually (with one unit each) will give you a 22 unit payout (and an 18 unit profit) if she wins all four. Taking this bet pays out way more profitably (you get 1004 units payout from a 4 unit risk) but only if she wins all four.

Simona Halep 2019 Grand Slam Odds

Number of 2019 Slam Titles Odds
None -185
Exactly 1 +185
Exactly 2 +1000
Exactly 3 +12500
All 4 +100000

We can do the same thing as above for Simona Halep, who also has individual slam odds available.

Simona Halep Grand Slam Odds and Implied Probabilities

Halep’s Number of Slams Odds Cumulative Probability of All Slams
None -185 -152.28
Exactly 1 +185 +209.02
Exactly 2 +1000 +1474.80
Exactly 3 +12500 +18418.52
All 4 +100000 +591615.98

There’s no value here. You can find more favorable odds just betting on the tournaments individually.

Serena Williams and Simona Halep Betting Advice

We did a lot of math here today, so watch this Serena Williams/Simona Halep highlights video as a reward:

There’s only one bet we’ve found here that presents any real value, which is the Serena Wins Exactly One Grand Slam bet. The rest are all poor value, according to sportsbooks’ own grand slam odds.

The only other thing to consider is using this bet as a way to parlay the four slam odds, which sportsbooks won’t let you do otherwise. You get a huge payout that way, but only if something massive happens.

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