Serena Williams the Favorite at Wimbledon 2018: A Good Pick?

• • Serena Williams is returning from a pregnancy, and is also the favorite to win Wimbledon
  • How have other players fared in their return from pregnancy? How is Serena’s return going so far?
  • Which other players are good bets at Wimbledon?

The Wimbledon Championships start July 2nd, and one of the most interesting stories is Serena Williams’ return from pregnancy. Serena is one of the most dominant players in the history of tennis and has won Wimbledon seven times, but she’ll likely be an unseeded wild card and it’s difficult to know if she’s worth her odds.

Serena’s Odds at Wimbledon

Serena is currently listed at +450 to win Wimbledon, making her a narrow favorite over Petra Kvitova (+600) and Garbine Muguruza (+800).

Those are favorite odds, but not quite as strong as Roger Federer’s odds to win Wimbledon (+150) or Rafael Nadal’s pre-tournament odds to win the French Open (as low as -150). Those odds don’t even reflect Serena Williams’ win rate at Wimbledon, she’s won seven of the 17 Wimbledon Championships she’s contested (for a 41% win rate) and these odds carry a 18% implied probability. It’s thus clear that Serena’s pregnancy situation is affecting her betting odds, which might present value.

How’s Serena Williams’ return going so far?

Briefly: not great. She lost early at Indian Wells and Miami, losing to Venus Williams at Indian Wells in the third rounding and losing in the first round to Naomi Osaka in Miami. As we mentioned, she was forced to withdraw from the French Open with an injury to her right pectoral muscle.

Coming back after a year off from anything isn’t easy (just ask Andy Murray) and Williams has a long road to get back to her previous self. She’ll need some matches before she’s totally up to speed, and unfortunately the pectoral injury denied her a few valuable matches against top players.

How have other players fared after a pregnancy?

These players coming back from pregnancy performed better than you might think. These pregnancies do tend to come later in their careers, but they seem able to get back to championship-winning form and quickly.

Kim Clijsters won the majority of her slam titles after her pregnancy. Victoria Azarenka made the fourth round of Wimbledon in her first slam back, and the biggest hindrance on her career has not been the physical or emotional strain of having and raising a child but a long custody battle that ended earlier this year. Margaret Court, the most slam-winning player of all time, was able to add three to her already impressive 21 after a pregnancy in 1972. Court is probably Serena Williams’ closest analogue, and it’s Court’s record that she’s trying to break.

These are all success stories, of course, and it’s hard to find information about players that either elect not to come back from pregnancy or who struggle to do so. These anecdotes do not constitute “data” in any meaningful sense. What we can take away here, however, is that it is not impossible for slam-winning players to return to form relatively quickly. Just in terms of medical leave, pregnancy seems to be far less damning for a player’s future prospects than a hip labral tear or ACL issues. That fact is also being recognized by tournament organizers and the WTA, as the US Open is adjusting its seeding process to account for pregnancy situations. If you’re worried about Serena Williams, worry about the pectoral muscle, as that could seriously hinder her performance on the fast courts at SW19.

Who else to look for at Wimbledon?

The odds sheet is littered with promising names and also (at +900) Maria Sharapova. Don’t bet on Maria Sharapova at +900. I’ll tell you more about why later on.

Petra Kvitova, the two-time winner of the esteemed Birmingham Classic (and also Wimbledon) is in the middle of a pretty significant resurgence this year. Kvitova suffered a knife attack in 2017, and in 2018 Kvitova has won the St Petersburg Ladies Trophy, the Prague Open, the Madrid Open, and the Birmingham Classic. She’s listed at +600 on the odds sheet, but she’s playing well this year (having won the Birmingham Classic just last weekend) and is maybe a safer pick than some of the other favorites. She’s playing well this year, she’s playing well on grass, and she’s won at Wimbledon before.

Garbine Muguruza (+800) is an uninformed pick. The 2017 champion hasn’t exactly been on top form recently, and ever since she withdrew from Stuttgart with a back injury she’s suffered a cluster of upsets. After receiving a first-round bye in Rome, Muguruza lost in the second round to Daria Gavrilova. As the #1 seed in Birmingham, Muguruza lost in the second round to Barbora Strýcová. She had a deep run at the French Open, but given that clay is her favorite surface and given her struggles on faster surfaces this year, I’d give Muguruza a pass.

Don’t bet on Maria Sharapova. She’s a bad pick for a lot of reasons, most notably that she hasn’t had success at Wimbledon or on fast courts generally since her string of shoulder injuries in the late 2000’s. The aspects of her game that made her a great grass-court player early in her career have been gone for an awful long time, as she still struggles to serve with pace and consistency. The betting public hasn’t got wise to that just yet, and her star power always places her among the favorites, so you almost never get any kind of value betting on Sharapova. Just stay away.

All in all betting on Serena Williams might, for the first time in a long time, be a value bet. The pregnancy, the time away from the sport, and the recent injury are just enough to scare bettors into longish odds for Williams, and those concerns might be unfounded.