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Tour de France Stage 5 Odds, Picks and Predictions

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in News

Updated Jun 29, 2021 · 2:19 PM PDT

Mark Cavendish celebrating a stage win
Britain's Mark Cavendish celebrates as he crosses the finish line to win the fourth stage of the Tour de France cycling race over 150.4 kilometers (93.5 miles) with start in Redon and finish in Fougeres, France, Tuesday, June 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole, Pool)
  • Stage 5 of the Tour de France (Wednesday, June 30) features an Individual Time Trial
  • The 27.2 kilometres on the outskirts of Brittany are largely flat
  • Who will win the ITT, and where is betting value present?

When this year’s Tour de France route was announced, there was good reason to believe Stage 5, an Individual Time Trial, would be the first major test to determine which GC contenders could separate themselves. While a lot has happened in the first four days, Wednesday will indeed be a barometer for the cream of the crop.

The GC race could see major movement on Stage 5 and merits plenty of attention, but time-trial specialists should be looked at very seriously in handicapping the field.

The ITT gets going early (6:15 am ET) and the undulating-to-flat route from Changé to Laval is pretty technical. For what it is worth, van Aert won the time trial this year during Tirreno-Adriatico; at the Tour de Suisse, Stefan Küng took the ITT; and Stefan Bissegger got the job done in Paris-Nice.

Let’s review Wednesday’s top options and consider where betting value is present.

Tour de France Stage 5 Odds

Rider Odds to Win Stage at DraftKings Top-3 Finish Odds
Wout Van Aert +200 -225
Stefan Bissegger +250 -200
Stefan Kung +400 -134
Kasper Asgreen +550 +125
Soren Kragh Andersen +1600 +350
Mikkel Bjerg +1600 +350
Primoz Roglic +1600 +450
Brandon McNulty +2200 +500
Geraint Thomas +2200 +550
Victor Campenaerts +3300 +750
Tadej Pogacar +3300 +750
Julian Alaphilippe +4000 +900

Odds as of June 29th

A couple of great stories and several major crashes have highlighted the first four days of racing.

On Stage 2, racing in his first grand tour, Mathieu van der Poel, the grandson of cycling legend Raymond Poulidor, won. Then on Tuesday Mark Cavendish, a 31-time stage winner sprinted to victory, his first at the Tour since 2016.

Meanwhile last year’s winner Tadej Pogačar, and runner up Primož Roglič both went down during Stage 3. They were joined in the carnage by former champion Geraint Thomas hitting the deck. While Pogačar seems to be in decent shape, Roglic, who also lost a key support rider to injury, is not in a great position. Thomas seems to have ceded control of Team Ineos to Richard Carapaz. Top sprinter Caleb Ewan crashed on Monday and was forced to abandon the race.

Cavendish’s win, for the first time in this year’s race, did not come on a day with any major drama. There was no change in the overall standings. At the top of the leaderboard is van der Poel. He has an eight second edge over Stage 1 winner Julian Alaphilippe. Carapaz and van Aert are 31 seconds behind the leader. Wilco Kelderman is in fifth place, 38 seconds behind the pace. Pogacar is a tick behind Kelderman. Thomas is 67 seconds back of van der Poel, in 18th position. Roglic enters the time trial in 20th place, one minute and thirty five seconds behind.

Let’s look at some top riders for Stage 5.

Favorites

Last year Van Aert won two stages at the Tour, and he is having an excellent 2021.

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The 26-year-old native of Belgium took the Road Race National Title this year after winning Gent–Wevelgem and the Amstel Gold Race. He won two stages, including the ITT, and finished second overall in March’s Tirreno–Adriatico.

This is the first Grand Tour for Bissegger. This year he won the points title and took a stage at the Tour de Suisse.

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At the age of 23, Bissegger is a veteran of individual pursuit. He profiles as an ITT specialist.

Contenders

Kung also has had success in individual pursuit, and was a part of a Team Time Trial victory at the Tour de France in 2018.

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Kung is having an excellent year. After winning the ITT at the Tour de Suisse, he also pocketed the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, winning the time trial in the process, and triumphed at the Swiss National Road Championship.

Kasper Asgreen won the Tour of Flanders this year and has taken a couple of time trials in 2021.

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Beating van der Poel in Flanders is a real statement, and Asgreen then won the National Road Championships in Denmark.

Longshots

Over the years top GC riders have routinely won time trials. Roglic and Thomas knew before the race began that they would need to do damage to the rest of the top contenders on the ITT’s. After suffering setbacks over the first four days, the time is now to make a move.

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It seemed like last year’s Tour de France was all but decided when Roglic and Pogacar arrived at the Stage 20 ITT. It was not your normal path, and the result was stunning.

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Sure, the terrain is much different, and there are lots of mountains to decide the GC still to come, but what if Pogacar makes a statement now like he did at the end of last year’s event? It would change the complexion of the race.

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