- The Dow, S&P, and other major stock indices are in a state of flux
- Which individual stocks will rebound?
- See the over/under odds for all stocks on the board
January was a generally strong portfolio month across most of the board. By the middle of February, the market was trending down amid intensifying outbreaks of the coronavirus.
As of mid-March, the market has taken a massive hit. Now, as sports remain on pause, sportsbooks are posting odds on how individual stocks will perform over the next two weeks, along with over/unders on the Dow Jones and S&P.
Over/Under Stock Prices (March 31st)
|Stock||Closing Price on Mar. 31||Odds|
|Bitcoin||2500 USD or under||+300|
|Amazon||Over 1750 US dollars||-145|
|“||Under 1750 US dollars||+105|
|American Airlines||Over 15 US dollars||+185|
|“||Under 15 US dollars||-280|
|Apple||Over 250 US dollars||-105|
|“||Under 250 US dollars||-135|
|Caesars Ent.||Over 5 US dollars||+225|
|“||Under 5 US dollars||-350|
|Charmin||Over 130 US dollars||+145|
|“||Under 130 US dollars||-185|
|Clorox||Over 200 US dollars||-120|
|“||Under 200 US dollars||-120|
|Costco||Over 320 US dollars||+120|
|“||Under 320 US dollars||-160|
|Disney||Over 90 US dollars||+140|
|“||Under 90 US dollars||-180|
|Over 155 US dollars||-120|
|“||Under 155 US dollars||-120|
|Over 1100 US dollars||+125|
|“||Under 1100 US dollars||-165|
|Hilton Hotels||Over 50 US dollars||+110|
|“||Under 50 US dollars||-150|
|Live Nation||Over 27 US dollars||+185|
|“||Under 27 US dollars||-275|
|MGM Resorts||Over 10 US dollars||+210|
|“||Under 10 US dollars||-320|
|Netflix||Over 350 US dollars||+140|
|“||Under 350 US dollars||-180|
|Starbucks||Over 55 US dollars||-130|
|“||Under 55 US dollars||-110|
|Trojan Condoms||Over 65 US dollars||-140|
|“||Under 65 US dollars||+100|
|Uber||Over 20 US dollars||+125|
|“||Under 20 US dollars||-165|
|Walmart||Over 132 US dollars||+100|
|“||Under 132 US dollars||-140|
|Zoom||Over 110 US dollars||-130|
|“||Under 110 US dollars||-110|
Odds as of March 19. All wagers will be graded based on closing price on March 31st.
The short of it is: many investors are moving into a cash position — they’re selling. Question is: will they continue this way to mitigating losses?
Buy solid investments and stick with them, right? I’m talking blue chip stocks – big companies with lots of assets. They’re not speculative. They’re solid performers. They own things that are of value and produce dividends. So, even if their stocks don’t move, they’re giving you money.
A lot of the companies listed are just that. So, what gives? Let’s start with China.
Read the report, 2020 Vision: Top Trends in Wealth Management, to learn how #financialadvisors are leveraging data-driven applications to provide premier client service: https://t.co/oi5FhxekAE pic.twitter.com/6VZi37ds86
— Dow Jones (@DowJones) February 6, 2020
Everything is made in China. Go down to your local hardware or department store and point to just about anything (left) on the shelves. Chances are, I’ll tell you it was made in China.
When China got sick and started banning people from leaving their houses, they had to shut down factories, stop production, halt the world’s resources. You’ve indubitably seen the empty shelf pictures – and by that, I mean all the internet these past weeks.
Over/Under Odds for the Dow and S&P (March 31)
|Dow Jones Industrial Average||Over 21000||-105|
|S&P 500 Index||Over 2500||-120|
Odds as of March 19. All wagers will be graded based on closing price on March 31st.
You’ve probably seen it first hand nat your local Costco Wholesale. While hordes of people have been ravishing what products they can snag from the company’s stores, its stocks are still down. That hasn’t stopped analysts from suggesting its price will have a 3.2% upside in the next year from where it currently stands, which would land them at $314.92.
Some good news? China is now reporting no new cases, which suggests that their containment strategy – locking people in their houses – stops the spread. That’s the point of us sitting at home (having more time to watch the stock needles on our portfolios dance like dervishes). We’ve surely been climbing the proverbial wall of worry, but are all these stocks mentioned down? Not necessarily.
Since World War II, the S&P 500 has entered a bear market — a drop of 20% from its peak — 12 times, including the one we are in. There have been 12 recessions during that same time (not including the one the U.S. may be heading into). https://t.co/NeFtUzZv01
— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 19, 2020
Starbucks just rose 9.02%, as of a March 19, 6:04 p.m. close. Its CEO, Kevin Johnson, announced its plan to buy back additional shares of its own stock to support a, “strong balance sheet,” as he was quoted on Yahoo! Finance. He claims they’re, “going to be just fine,” and have already re-opened 90% of their stores in China.
Likewise, Amazon is looking green. As of the March 19 close, its stocks were up 2.78%, but its sellers were down in temperament, marketplace faith, and ability to make their Amazon loan payments after the company responded to the pandemic by halting non-essential inventory.
But are you betting on the sandbox or the kids playing in it?
American Airlines had a 6% price jump last Friday, though its shares have been in steady decline since early 2018 with a dash of nose-dive from the effects of the coronavirus. So, do we fight or flight?
Today, we presented guidelines for EU countries for an effective border management. It protects health while preserving the integrity of the internal market to prevent shortages of medical equipment & food.
Our single market is a key instrument of EU solidarity.
More ↓ #COVID19
— European Commission ?? (@EU_Commission) March 16, 2020
North American Airlines, in general, are likely taking one of the worst hits right now. For the most part, we’re no longer even flying trans-border. Most of our flights are being executed merely to repatriate anyone stuck outside our borders. And we’re telling all our people to do exactly what China’s been doing: keep your social distance.
The question is: for how long? A year? A year and half? Is that how long people are going to have to not travel for conference meetings, and find ways to virtually connect?
Airlines are more of a long-term bet. But while their current stocks are pretty much a write off, the other side of the coin says: they’re needed companies.
In the U.S., 705 of first 2,500 cases range in age from 20 to 44 https://t.co/X5lnSJqKG4
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 19, 2020
North American Airlines are in the best position possible to take these sorts of hits – not that anyone wants to take these hits – partially due to the fact that government will likely announce financial assistance for airlines precisely because, economically, they are necessities.
Airlines play huge roles in keeping North American countries going. To let them go down is to let economies collapse. So, the government will step in. The airlines will rebound. It’s just a matter of time.
Stocks of the big 3 U.S. airlines — United, Delta and American Airlines — fell more than 10% on Thursday after President Trump suspended most travel from Europe to the U.S. for 30 days https://t.co/nqfy4kThYw
— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 12, 2020
How about the most common household fruit? Apple has only just started paying dividends. It’s not that people didn’t ask for it. They did. Apple just kept saying, “No.” Now, it finally succumbed. And that made its stocks all the more attractive. Attractive, but not necessarily immune.
Here are 14 major companies whose stocks moved on this week’s news https://t.co/vbxBh47nqd
— WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) March 14, 2020
When Apple reported blowout fiscal Q1 earnings results in January, it also forewarned the potential impact the coronavirus may have. In February, they issued a warning to investors to state expectations of missing its revenue guidance.
Apple will inevitably take a hit, especially with stores remaining closed and no definite re-opening date. This hasn’t stopped Apple from emphasizing this downturn as a temporary lull.
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple & Google are all outperforming the S&P this year
These stocks/companies are unbelievable
Remember when ppl worried they would cause the next downturn?
You could make the case that the biggest companies will come out of this crisis stronger than ever pic.twitter.com/JKsczNfpYj
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) March 19, 2020
Back to the short of the long of it all: everyone is scurrying for cash. It might be too late for that. But those whose investment thesis already has them dipped into those big, blue chips, just might hedge their bets and ride this wave into healthier airs. And for now, you can always bet on the odds.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.