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WNBA Semifinals Game 4 Odds, Preview and Predictions – Sun vs Sky, Mercury vs Aces

Mitchell Hansen

by Mitchell Hansen in WNBA

Oct 6, 2021 · 5:26 AM PDT

WNBA semifinal game
Phoenix Mercury Shey Peddy, bottom, celebrates with Brittney Griner (42), Bria Hartley (14), Kia Vaughn (1) and Diana Taurasi (3) after scoring against the Las Vegas Aces during the second half of a WNBA basketball game, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
  • The semifinal round of the WNBA Playoffs resumes on Wednesday, Oct. 6th with a pair of elimination Game 4 contests set to take place on ESPN
  • The fifth seed Phoenix Mercury and sixth seed Chicago Sky hold 2-1 series leads over second seed Las Vegas Aces and top seed Connecticut Sun, one win away from advancing to the WNBA Finals
  • See below for the latest odds, schedule, analysis and the best bet for the two Game 4 contests

The best-of-five semifinal round in the WNBA Playoffs continues on ESPN on Wednesday, Oct. 6th with a pair of Game 4 matchups featuring two teams aiming to pull off upset victories and advance to the Finals.

The sixth seed Chicago Sky will once again host the top seed Connecticut Sun in the first game of the night at 8 p.m. ET in Chicago, with the Sky surprisingly up 2-1 in the series and looking to send the Sun home early. To round things out, the fifth seed Phoenix Mercury will host the second seed Las Vegas Aces at 10 p.m. ET, with the Mercury holding a 2-1 advantage in the series with the Aces.

If Phoenix or Chicago are able to pull out the win on Wednesday, they would move on to the championship series beginning Oct. 10th. If either or both of those teams lose, the semifinals would go to a deciding Game 5 on Friday, Oct. 8th in a win-or-go-home showdown.

WNBA Semifinals Game 4 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Connecticut Sun +4.5 (-105) -188 Over 155.5 (-110)
Chicago Sky -4.5 (-115) +152 Under 155.5 (-110)
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Las Vegas Aces -1.5 (-110) -122 Over 171.5 (-106)
Phoenix Mercury +1.5 (-110) +100 Under 171.5 (-114)

Odds as of Oct. 6th at FanDuel

Sky Aim to Upset Top-Seeded Sun

In the series thus far between Chicago and Connecticut, the two teams have gone back-and-forth in all three games with the Sky ultimately claiming two of those three games and even stealing Game 1 on the road in Connecticut.

Chicago won a double-overtime Game 1 contest, followed by Connecticut bouncing back to take Game 2. In Game 3, the Sky took a 2-1 series lead behind a win at home to now sit just one game away from advancing to the WNBA Finals.

The Sky have been led by Kahleah Copper throughout the postseason, with her averaging a team-best 18.2 points, five rebounds and 1.4 steals. Allie Quigley has averaged 14.8 points, Courtney Vandersloot tallied 13 points, 9.6 assists and six rebounds and Candace Parker has added 12.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists.

Connecticut has been paced by DeWanna Bonner to this point in the playoffs, averaging 16.7 points and 7.7 rebounds. Brionna Jones (13.7 points), Alyssa Thomas (13.3 points) and Jonquel Jones (13.3 points) have filled in nicely behind Bonner.

Throughout the series, Chicago has held the top team in the league in check, mainly with the Sky’s interior defense that has limited Sun post and WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones. Chicago will once again try to do that again on Wednesday to send the Sun home early in what would be a surprising upset.

Mercury Try to Maintain Dominance Over Aces

After Las Vegas put together an impressive Game 1 performance to take an early series lead, Phoenix has responded with two blowout wins to grab a one-game advantage and now on the verge of eliminating the Aces.

Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith have done it all for the Mercury so far this postseason, with Griner averaging 21.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, five assists and 2.2 blocks, Taurasi tallying 20 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists and Diggins-Smith averaging 14.8 points, 5.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds. Brianna Turner has also been a key contributor, adding 12.6 points and 10.8 rebounds during the playoffs.

For the Aces, Kelsey Plum and Riquna Williams have been the surprise stars throughout the playoffs, with Plum leading the team with 18.7 points off the bench and Williams adding 16.7 points. A’ja Wilson has been somewhat quiet with 11.7 points, eight rebounds and 3.7 assists, while Liz Cambage has managed to average just 11 points and four rebounds alongside her.

It’s hard to think Las Vegas will continue to struggle like it has the last two games, but the way Phoenix has been playing as of late will make it a tough task for the Aces to try and accomplish in order to avoid having their season come to an end in Game 4.

Predictions and Best Bet

Although there is a sense of urgency during every game in the playoffs, Wednesday night will feature an even higher sense of urgency for Connecticut and Las Vegas as they both try and avoid elimination while Chicago and Phoenix aim to secure a spot in the league championship series.

For predictions in the first game of the night, let’s go with the Sun taking Game 4 over the Sky to force a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday night in Connecticut. In the nightcap, let’s pick the Mercury to remain hot and advance to the WNBA Finals while also sending the Aces home early.

When it comes to the best bet of the night, look at the over/under of 171.5 listed for the game between Phoenix and Las Vegas. With the exception of Game 3, where the Aces struggled shooting the ball, these two teams have put up a ton of points and should hit the over in Game 4.

  • The Pick — Aces at Mercury Over/Under: Over 171.5 (-106)
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