2025-26 NFL Playoff Odds Tracker: See How Long it Took Sportsbooks to Give Up on Chiefs, Lions

• Look back at the odds to make the 2025-26 NFL playoffs
• Many of the early-season favorites went on to miss the 2025-26 playoffs, opening the door for teams like the Broncos and Patriots
• Check out the odds to make the NFL playoffs this year

The 2025-26 NFL season was very different than the prior few seasons. Many of the perennial contenders, and near-locks to make the playoffs early in the season, according to the odds, went on to miss the postseason. This opened the door for some teams who were not given great odds to make the playoffs when the season started to sneak their way in – or really plow through in some cases.

Look back to the opening odds to make the playoffs for the 2025-26 season, and see how the odds changed throughout the year. It’s particularly interesting to see how long sportsbooks continued to favor teams like the Chiefs and Lions, among others, to make the playoffs.

2025-26 Odds to Make NFL Playoffs

Top 8 Top 12 All

The graph above features the odds to make the playoffs for all AFC teams. You will find the NFC teams in a graph a little bit further down.

When the odds to make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs opened, these were the seven teams sportsbooks favored to make the postseason:

1. Buffalo Bills (-725 odds)
2. Baltimore Ravens (-500)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (-370)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (-168)
5. Houston Texans (-138)
6. LA Chargers (-130)
7. Denver Broncos (-120)

However, only four of those teams went on to make the playoffs: the Bills, Texans, Chargers, and Broncos, which I bolded in the list above. This meant three of the top four teams in odds to make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs missed the postseason. The Bengals hopes ended early with Joe Burrow suffering an injury early in the season; the Chiefs held on for most of the year, but were ultimately eliminated in early December; and the Ravens hopes were crushed with a missed game-winning field goal attempt in Week 18.

Taking the place of the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals in the playoffs were the New England Patriots (+153 odds at opening), Jacksonville Jaguars (+158), and Pittsburgh Steelers (+138).

Top 8 Top 12 All

The graph above features all 16 NFC teams. When the odds opened for the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs, these were the seven teams sportsbooks favored:

1. Philadelphia Eagles (-425 odds)
2. Detroit Lions (-230)
3. San Francisco 49ers (-195)
4. LA Rams (-168)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-163)
6. Washington Commanders (-148)
7. Green Bay Packers (-123)

Same as the AFC, only four of the seven teams favored to get into the postseason actually made it – the Eagles, 49ers, Rams, and Packers. The Lions were the heaviest favorite to miss, as they were given the second-best odds to get in at the beginning of the year. The Buccaneers and Commanders were certainly surprises to miss as well, though.

Taking the place of those three teams who missed was the Seattle Seahawks (+165 odds at opening), Chicago Bears (+160), and Carolina Panthers (+245).

Here are some notes on the 2025-26 NFL playoff odds movement:

• [December 9] The Colts were given -3500 odds to make the playoffs after Week 8, but saw their odds slowly fade without a healthy Daniel Jones under center, and then reached +345 after being crushed by the Jaguars in Week 14, where Jones’ season ended due to an Achilles injury.
• [December 2] For the first time this season, the Chiefs were not favored to make the playoffs after a Week 13 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving
• [October 21] The Commanders were pummeled by the Cowboys, which sent Washington’s playoff odds from +120 to +310.
• [September 23] The Texans’ 0-3 start to the season has resulted in their playoff odds fading from -140 ahead of kickoff to +300.
• [September 16] After Joe Burrow suffered a turf toe injury in Week 2 that landed him on the IR, the Bengals’ playoff odds faded from -150 to +145.
• [September 9] The Lions were crushed by the Packers in Week 1, which resulted in a quick reaction from the sportsbooks to give Detroit better odds to miss the playoffs than make them.
• [March 27] The seven teams in the AFC given the best odds to make the playoffs at opening were the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals, Texans, Chargers, and Broncos. Cincinnati is the only one of those teams who did not make the playoffs last season – they are replacing the Steelers among the top seven. The opening NFL playoff odds favored the Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Rams, Buccaneers, Commanders, and Packers to make the playoffs. This leaves out the Vikings, who made the playoffs last season, as they are being replaced among the top seven in the odds by the 49ers, who missed last year.