2025-26 NFL Win Totals – Look Back to See How Teams Performed vs Expectations
By Matt McEwan
Updated:
- Look back at NFL win totals for the 2025-26 NFL season
- See which teams over/under-performed expectation in the 2025-26 season
- Looking for NFL win totals for the current season?
The NFL win totals for the 2025-26 season opened on April 4, well before the NFL Draft or the schedule release. I tracked the win totals throughout the NFL offseason to see how they changed following free agency, the draft, and preseason. Looking at the final win totals listed at sportsbooks prior to the 2025-26 season kicking off, there were 15 teams who went over their win total, 16 teams who went under, and one who pushed.
See which teams outperformed and underperformed expectations in the 2025-26 NFL season below.
2025-26 NFL Win Totals
Ahead of the 2025-26 NFL season kicking off, there were eight teams with projected win totals at sportsbooks of at least 10. The team with the highest projected win total entering the season was the Bills (12), while the lowest belonged to the Saints (5).
Here are some more notes on NFL win totals movement:
- [May 20] The Saints saw their win total drop from 6.5 to 5.5 after Derek Carr announced his retirement, leaving rookie Tyler Shough as the team’s probable QB come Week 1.
- [April 4] Opening NFL win totals projected the Bills to win the most games in the 2025-26 season. Buffalo’s regular season wins over/under opened at an average of 11.8. The lowest was Cleveland at 5.
2025-26 NFL Win Total Over/Under Results
There was only one team from the 2025-26 NFL season who had a win total of at least 10 that ended up going over that projection: the San Francisco 49ers. This was in spite of them playing without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, two massive pieces of their defense, for most of the season, only had Brock Purdy for nine games, and George Kittle for 11. (Not to mention, no Brandon Aiyuk at all.)
The Jaguars, Patriots, and Seahawks were the teams who exceeded their expectations by the widest margin, as each went over their respective win total by 5.5 games. The Cardinals were the team who underperformed the most, as they were 5.5 games under their win total, with the Chiefs a close second at 5 games under.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
