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We’re tracking the World Cup betting trends for the tournament winner and for every match of the tournament here. See the betting splits for the day’s matches here.

World Cup Public Betting Splits

World Cup public betting

Public betting splits as of December 17 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Unlike the odds that give very little between the two World Cup finalists, in World Cup public betting trends, the public is back Lionel Messi and Argentina. The Argentines has 53% of the handle and 56% of the bet count to win in regulation. As far as simply winning the trophy by any means, Argentina has 68% of the handle. However, the bet percentages are evenly split at 50% each.

World Cup Winner Betting Splits

World Cup winner splits

Betting splits as of December 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Looking for a great bonus to use for your World Cup Betting? Claim this unique DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to make your 2022 World Cup bets today! 

The enthusiasm for Argentina in the World Cup public betting trends is back after they defeated Poland on Matchday 3 and claimed top spot in Group C. With 23% of the public betting handle, they are the public’s top favorite for the World Cup. They’re also getting 13% of the bet percentage.

However, Brazil are the current favorites in the World Cup odds. They have the highest bet count percent at 15%, while also receiving 14% of the handle. They are the public’s second choice behind Argentina.

Team USA are through to the knockout rounds and despite having World Cup odds of +9000, they have the fourth-highest handle and bet count percentages after Argentina, Brazil and France.

World Cup Public Betting Trends

Online sportsbooks keep detailed records of where every bet is coming from for every season, month, week, and match. From there, they can break down who is betting on what team and match. After counting up all of the soccer bets on a certain match they can provide information on the percentages of bets made and money wagered on each World Cup match or event.

What Are Soccer Money Percentages?

Soccer money percentages are calculated by combining all of the money that has been wagered on a match. Usually, this will be separated by moneyline, spread and totals wagers. For soccer, there is a third option, the draw, in the moneyline or “three-way moneyline” markets.

Another way to refer to this is the “handle percentage” that is being bet on a team or an outcome.

By analyzing this data, you can see how much percentage of the actual money is coming in for a specific event or team in a match.

This typically is a better way to determine where the sharper bets are going on World Cup matches and futures markets. Because if large amounts of money are bet on a team or outcome, despite the bet percentages (explained below) being higher on the other side, you can tell that the bigger money bets, often from professionals, are coming in on that side.

What Are Soccer Bet Percentages?

Soccer bet percentages are different from money percentages. When you’re analyzing bet percentages you’re looking at the actual number of bets made on a team or outcome in a soccer match.

Whether the wager is $1, $50, $100 or $10,000, if a bet is made on a match, it will count the same towards the bet percentage of all the bets made overall.

So if 100 moneyline bets are made between Team A versus Team B, and 70 of those bets (of varying amounts of money) are placed on Team A, then Team A has received 70 percent of the bet percentage to win for that match.

You could also look at this figure as the ticket percentage for that team. But, as mentioned above, just because a team is getting lots of bets (or tickets) wagered on them, doesn’t necessarily mean that the actual amount of money bet (money percentage) is also on that same team.

Is Fading the Public a Good Soccer Betting Strategy?

As is the case when betting on every sport, there are public or “square” bettors in soccer as well as professional or “sharp” bettors too.

Generally speaking, it’s often a better strategy to be on the side of the sharps. These bettors are usually making larger wagers and bet on sports for a living. They are not swayed by betting with their hearts or on their favorite teams. Oftentimes, sharp bettors make wagers that align with what the sportsbooks need for a given match.

Public bettors often bet on favorites and usually make smaller wager amounts. Over the long term, most public bettors usually lose. It’s why Las Vegas can afford all those fancy hotels on the strip. Therefore, logic would say it’s a smart strategy to bet the opposite of what the public is betting.

So then fading the public must be a good soccer betting strategy? Well, it can be, but not always.

Nothing in life is that simple. Even though long-term public bettors may come up short, contrary to popular belief, the public does win. And they can win often. The sharps can also lose. If it was as easy as betting against the public in every soccer match, there would be no more “public” bettors. It can also be important to note where some information on public betting is coming from when analyzing World Cup betting trends. Not all books are created equally and some may cater to a more public or sharp audience. This can skew the results of the World Cup public betting trends you’re looking at.

Overall, factoring in how the public is betting on a soccer match, should just be one of many tools used in your handicapping strategies.


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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com