Guardians vs Royals Odds, Line & Spread – Civale vs Hernandez
By Sam Cox in MLB Baseball
Updated: January 6, 2023 at 8:33 am ESTPublished:
- The Cleveland Guardians face the Kansas City Royals at 2:10pm ET on April, 11th
- Aaron Civale takes the mound the Guardians against KC’s Carlos Hernandez
- Read below for the latest Guardians vs Royals odds and betting preview
The Cleveland Guardians meet the Kansas City Royals for the final of a four-game set on April, 11th at 2:10pm ET. Aaron Civale is on the bump for Cleveland, who won its first game of the season on Sunday afternoon, while Carlos Hernandez gets the ball for Kansas City. The Royals took the first two of this series, but Cleveland is favored to tie it up on Monday afternoon.
Guardians vs Royals Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | -1.5 (+148) | -113 | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Royals | +1.5 (-186) | -108 | U 8.5 (-108) |
Odds as of Apr. 10 at Barstool Sportsbook.
Both of these franchises are outsiders in MLB division odds, priced at fourth and fifth in the division behind the White Sox, Tigers and Twins.
Kansas City’s focus is on talent development at the moment, with star prospect Bobby Witt Jr set to take his place in the line-up once again on Monday. The infielder is currently the favorite in the AL Rookie of the Year odds.
Cleveland is looking to build on Sunday’s blowout and end the first series of the year at .500.
Probable Starters
Just 11 of Hernandez’s 24 appearances last season were as a starter. He put up a 125 ERA+ in those outings, but he had just a 1.8 strikeout to walk ratio. While his work in various roles was more than enough to earn a spot on the team for this season, and he possesses a high-velocity fastball, Hernandez must find command if he’s to enjoy success as a starter this year, even against a Cleveland team which ranked fourth-worst in on-base percentage in 2021.
The Venezuelan appeared to have the walk issues under control in Spring Training. It will be interesting to see if he can convert that to success on Monday night, particularly after the Guardians’ offensive explosion on Sunday.
This is home.#TogetherRoyal pic.twitter.com/3RKGEnZjVN
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) April 10, 2022
Civale has a longer track record, but it’s fair to say there’s some uncertainty with him too. He’s been unable to regain the same form that he showed in 2019, and he gave up seven earned runs in just 11 innings against these Royals last season.
Civale vs Hernandez
| 12-5 | Record | 6-2 |
| 3.84 | ERA | 3.68 |
| 4.79 | xERA | 4.53 |
| 19.9% | K% | 20.7% |
While he once again exhibited good control, advanced numbers were generally not keen on Civale in 2021. Despite high spin rates across the board, the East Windsor native ranked below average in many expected categories.
He’s on the board in the AL Cy Young odds, but at a distant +12500.
Low-Powered Offenses
Kansas City took two low-scoring games to start this series with Cleveland generating just one run of offense across the two contests. The road team bounced back offensively in a big way on Sunday, scoring 10 across the first two innings.
Never been this excited to have the runs.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/N1gQjOumBR
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) April 10, 2022
Both teams were well-below average when it comes to OPS+ in 2021, and not enough has changed with either roster to suggest that will be any different this season. The high-scoring contest on Sunday could prove to be the exception when these teams matchup — Cleveland was 93 by OPS+ with Kansas City down at 88.
Guardians vs Royals Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10/22 | Royals | Guardians | CLE, 17-3 |
| 4/09/22 | Royals | Guardians | KC, 1-0 |
| 4/08/22 | Royals | Guardians | KC, 3-1 |
| 9/30/21 | Royals | Guardians | CLE, 6-1 |
| 9/29/21 | Royals | Guardians | KC, 10-5 |
| 9/28/21 | Royals | Guardians | KC, 6-4 |
| 9/27/21 | Guardians | Royals | CLE, 2-8 |
| 9/21/21 | Guardians | Royals | CLE, 4-1 |
| 9/20/21 (2) | Guardians | Royals | CLE, 4-2 |
| 9/20/21 (1) | Guardians | Royals | CLE, 7-2 |
Cleveland went 14-5 in 2021 against these Royals. That followed a 5-5 split in 2020 and a 12-7 season series win for the Guardians in 2019. In theory, though, these are two teams trending in opposite directions with the Royals aiming to come out of their rebuild and Cleveland dropping out of AL Central contention.
Guardians vs Royals Prediction
There’s plenty of intrigue in this pitching matchup. Civale is solid, but has struggled against the Royals. It’s hard to know what to make of Hernandez.
Neither is likely to dominate, yet a low-scoring game seems a probable outcome with these two offenses if we can view Cleveland’s Sunday exploits as no more than anomaly.
Not on Bobby's watch!@BwittJr // #TogetherRoyal pic.twitter.com/OSPn2C39Sb
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) April 9, 2022
There’s value betting the under here, particularly considering the nature of the first two games of the season. We prefer backing Cleveland on the moneyline, however, with Civale to keeping things under control and hand over to a rested back end of the bullpen.
Pick: Guardians moneyline (-113)
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Sports Writer
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
